Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2018,
, 681 - 695, 31.12.2018
Öz
Kaynakça
- KAYNAKÇA
- Al Rasasi, M. ve M. Yilmaz, (2016). The effects of oil shocks on Turkish macroeconomic aggregates. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3): 471-476. Tarek Altay Bülent, Mert Topçu, Ebru Erdoğan (2013) Oil Price, Output and Employment in Turkey: Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Vol. 3, Special Issue, 2013, pp.7-13 ISSN: 2146-4553 www.econjournals.com 7 Alkhateeb, Tawfik Yousef, Haider Mahmood, Zafar Ahmad Sultan, Nawaz Ahmad, (2017), Oil Price and Employment Nexus in Saudi Arabia, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ISSN: 2146-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017, 7(3), 277-281. Bouchaur, C. ve Hussein Ali Al-Zeaud (2012). Oil Price Distortion and Their Impact on Algerian Macroeconomic. International Journal of Business and Management. Vol. 7. No: 18. 99-114. Burbidge, J. ve Harrison, A. (1984), “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price RisesUsing Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, 25(2), 459-484 Chang, Y., Jha, K., Fernandez, K. ve Jam’an, F. (2011). Oil Price Fluctuations and Macroeconomic Performances in Asian and Oceanic Economies. 30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference. Washington. DC. 9–12 October Doğrul, H.G. ve Soytaş, U., (2010). Relationship Between Oil Prices, Interest Rate, and Unemployment: Evidence From An Emerging Market. Energy Economics. Vol.32. 1523-1528. Du, Limin, He Yanan ve Chu Wei (2010), The Relationship Between Oil Price Shocks and China’s Macroeconomy: An Empirical Analysis, Energy Policy, 38(8), 4142-4151. Elder, J., ve Apostolos S. (2010), Oil Price Uncertainty, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(6), 1137-1159. Estrada, A. ve P. H. Cos (2012). Oil prices and their effect on potential output. Applied Economics Letters. 19. 207–214 Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley&Sons, Inc., New York Erkan, B., M. Şentürk, Y.E. Akbaş ve T. Bayat (2011). Uluslararası Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin İşsizlik Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 10(02). 715-730. Finn, Mary G. (1995), Variance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual and Their Cyclical Implications, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19(5-7), 1249-1281. Gujarati, D.. N. (2004) Basic Econometrics. 4th Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies. 720-722 Johansen, Soren(1988), “Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), s. 231-254. Johansen, Soren, Juselius, Katarina (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Iference OnCointegration With Applications To The Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52 (2) May, pp.169-210. Kasman, S., Kasman A., (2004). "Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik İşsizlik oranı Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi", İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 220, 122-131. Knudsen C. (2015) “Norway unemployment spikes as drop in oil price hits economy” (Çevrimiçi) 07.08.2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-norway-economy/norway-unemployment-spikes-as-drop-in-oil-price-hits-economy-idUKKCN0QV0KJ20150826 Lescaroux, F., V. Mignon (2008). On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables. CEPII. Working Paper No: 2008-05. Lings, K., Jones, L. (2011). “Rising oil prices affect economic growth.” Çevrimiçi (06.08.2018) http://www.libertyfinancials.co.za/lib/content/images/newsbreak/PolicyHolderComm/pdf/201105_global_outlook.p Loganathan, N., I. Yussof ve M. Kogid (2013). Connection between Global Oil Price Instability and Unemployment Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia. TheEmpirical Economics Letters. 12(4). 393-402. Mellquist, H. & Femermo, M. (2007). The Relationship Between The Price of Oil And Unemployment in Sweeden. Jonkoping International Business School, Jonkoping University Ragan, C. (2008). Mork, Knut A., Oystein Olsen ve Hans T. Mysen (1994), Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries, Energy Journal, 15(4), 19-36. Mory, Javier F. (1993), Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?, Energy Journal, 14(4), 151-162. Ongun M.T. (2001) “İstikrar Arayışından Krize: Bir Değerlendirme” Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F .1-14 Özkaya.Ş. (2001) “Petrol Fiyatlarının Ekonomilere Etkisi” Uluslararası Ekonomi Sorunları Dergisi, Dışişleri Bakanlığı Yayınları, Sayı 1. http://www.mfa.gov.tr/petrol-fiyatlarinin-ekonomilere-etkisi.tr.mfa (Erişim tarihi 29/01/2018). Pamir N.(2015) “Enerjinin İktidarı” Haykitap Yayınları 2015. Parasız İ. (1998). “Kriz Ekonomisi” Ezgi Yayınevi 1998. Rafiq, Shuddhasawtta & Salim, Ruhul & Bloch, Harry, 2009. "Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 121-132, September. Ran, J. ve Voon, Jan P. (2012). Does oil price shock affect small open economies? Evidencefrom Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Applied Economics Letters.19(16). 1599-1602. Robalbo, P.B. and Salvado, J.C. (2008). Oil Price Shocks and the Portuguese Economy since the1970s. FEUNL Working Paper Series. No. 529,http://ideas.repec.org/p/unl/unlfep/wp529.html. 10.08.2013. Rotemberg, J.J. ve Woodford, M., (1996), Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(4), 549-577. Shakyani, T.M. ve Khorram, A.T.,(2017) The Relationship Between Unemployment Rate, Oil Price And Interest Rate In Iran, Quarterly Journal Of The Macro And Strategic Policies Winter 2017, Volume 4, Number 16 ,115-134 Soygüzel H. (2016) 1994 Türkiye Ekonomik Krizi Ve 5 Nisan Kararları (Çevrimiçi): http://www.ilimvemedeniyet.com/1994-turkiye-ekonomik-krizi-ve-5-nisan-kararlari.html 21.01.2018 Sönmez, M. (1985). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bunalım 24 Ocak Kararları ve Sonrası, Belge Yayınları Trang Nguyen Thi Ngoc, Tran Ngoc Tho, Dinh Thi Thu Hong,(2017) The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017, 7(3), 42-49. ISSN: 2146-4553, Umar, G. ve Abdulhakeem, K.A. (2010). Oil Price Shocks and the Nigeria Economy: A Variance Autoregressive (VAR) Model. International Journal of Business and Management. Vol. 5.No. 8. 39-49. Weiss, K.(2015) “Oil prices could eventually affect unemployment rates”(Çevrimiçi) 08.08.2018 http://www.woodwardnews.net/news/oil-prices-could-eventually-affect-unemployment-rates/article_ee2b6934-927f-11e4-916b-afdd316e8099.html Yahia, A.F. ve Saleh, S.A. (2008). Economic Sanctions, Oil Price Fluctuations and Employment: New Empirical Evidence from Libya. American Journal of Applied Sciences. Vol.5(12).1713-1719.
- Yardımcıoğlu, F, Beşel, F,(2013) İşssizlik-Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye Örneği (1980-2012) International Periodical for the Languages, Literature and History of Turkish or Turkic Volume 8/8 Summer 2 Yılmaz A. (2015), “Sorularla İktisat Hipotez”, Pelikan Yayınları, s.307
- İNTERNET KAYNAKLARI TESAM(2017)http://tesam.org.tr/petrol-raporu/,(ErişimTarihi:18.02.2018).ORSAM (2017) http://www.orsam.org.tr/files/OA/78/25_info5.pdf) ErişimTarihi:18.03.2018).TUİK(2017)www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=637,(ErişimTarihi:11.02.2018).WEALTH-FUND(2018) Swfinstitute(2018)(https://www.swfinstitute.org/sovereign-wealth-fund-rankings/),(ErişimTarihi:11.02.2018).WORLDBANK(2014)http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/eca/turkey/tr-focus-note-dec-2014-tr.pdf, (ErişimTarihi:11.02.2018).
Yıl 2018,
, 681 - 695, 31.12.2018
Öz
Türkiye ekonomisi büyüdükçe enerji ihtiyacı ve ekonominin
petrole olan talebi artmaktadır. Türkiye’de işsizlik oranları ve dünya petrol fiyatları arasındaki
ilişki, 1980-2016 dönemi için; VAR modeli analizi, Johansen eş bütünleşme
testi, Granger nedensellik testi ve hata
düzeltme modeli ile incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak ülkemiz için işsizlik oranları ile petrol fiyatları arasında bir nedensellik
ilişkisinin olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Petrol fiyatları her ülkenin ekonomisi için önemli rol
oynamaktadır. Petrol fiyatlarındaki ani artışlar yüksek enflasyon, işsizlik ve
GSMH’nın düşmesine yol açmaktadır Petrol fiyatındaki artışın Türkiye
ekonomisine doğrudan olumsuz etkileri büyüme, ödemeler dengesi, enflasyon ve
bütçe üzerinde olmakla beraber ayrıca işsizlik oranı üzerinde etkisinin olduğu
sonucuna varılmaktadır. Türkiye’de 1970,
1980 ve 1990’lı yıllarda yaşanan ekonomik krizlerin öncesinde dünya petrol fiyatlarında
ciddi artışlar yaşandığı görülmektedir. Ekonomik krizlerin ardından işsizlik
oranlarında ciddi artışlar meydana gelmiştir. 2040 yılında dünya nüfusunun 9 milyara yaklaşacağı, enerji talebinin
%35 artacağı ve bu talebin %60’ının petrol ve doğalgazdan karşılanacağı
Türkiye’nin de bu talep artışında ilk 10 ülke içerisinde yer alacağı
belirtilmektedir
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- KAYNAKÇA
- Al Rasasi, M. ve M. Yilmaz, (2016). The effects of oil shocks on Turkish macroeconomic aggregates. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 6(3): 471-476. Tarek Altay Bülent, Mert Topçu, Ebru Erdoğan (2013) Oil Price, Output and Employment in Turkey: Evidence from Vector Error Correction Model, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Vol. 3, Special Issue, 2013, pp.7-13 ISSN: 2146-4553 www.econjournals.com 7 Alkhateeb, Tawfik Yousef, Haider Mahmood, Zafar Ahmad Sultan, Nawaz Ahmad, (2017), Oil Price and Employment Nexus in Saudi Arabia, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ISSN: 2146-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017, 7(3), 277-281. Bouchaur, C. ve Hussein Ali Al-Zeaud (2012). Oil Price Distortion and Their Impact on Algerian Macroeconomic. International Journal of Business and Management. Vol. 7. No: 18. 99-114. Burbidge, J. ve Harrison, A. (1984), “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price RisesUsing Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, 25(2), 459-484 Chang, Y., Jha, K., Fernandez, K. ve Jam’an, F. (2011). Oil Price Fluctuations and Macroeconomic Performances in Asian and Oceanic Economies. 30th USAEE/IAEE North American Conference. Washington. DC. 9–12 October Doğrul, H.G. ve Soytaş, U., (2010). Relationship Between Oil Prices, Interest Rate, and Unemployment: Evidence From An Emerging Market. Energy Economics. Vol.32. 1523-1528. Du, Limin, He Yanan ve Chu Wei (2010), The Relationship Between Oil Price Shocks and China’s Macroeconomy: An Empirical Analysis, Energy Policy, 38(8), 4142-4151. Elder, J., ve Apostolos S. (2010), Oil Price Uncertainty, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(6), 1137-1159. Estrada, A. ve P. H. Cos (2012). Oil prices and their effect on potential output. Applied Economics Letters. 19. 207–214 Enders, W. (1995), Applied Econometric Time Series, John Wiley&Sons, Inc., New York Erkan, B., M. Şentürk, Y.E. Akbaş ve T. Bayat (2011). Uluslararası Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin İşsizlik Göstergeleri Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği Üzerine Ampirik Bulgular. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 10(02). 715-730. Finn, Mary G. (1995), Variance Properties of Solow’s Productivity Residual and Their Cyclical Implications, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19(5-7), 1249-1281. Gujarati, D.. N. (2004) Basic Econometrics. 4th Edition, McGraw-Hill Companies. 720-722 Johansen, Soren(1988), “Statistical Analysis Of Cointegration Vectors”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2-3), s. 231-254. Johansen, Soren, Juselius, Katarina (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation And Iference OnCointegration With Applications To The Demand For Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52 (2) May, pp.169-210. Kasman, S., Kasman A., (2004). "Turizm Gelirleri ve Ekonomik İşsizlik oranı Arasındaki Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi", İktisat İşletme ve Finans Dergisi, 220, 122-131. Knudsen C. (2015) “Norway unemployment spikes as drop in oil price hits economy” (Çevrimiçi) 07.08.2018 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-norway-economy/norway-unemployment-spikes-as-drop-in-oil-price-hits-economy-idUKKCN0QV0KJ20150826 Lescaroux, F., V. Mignon (2008). On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables. CEPII. Working Paper No: 2008-05. Lings, K., Jones, L. (2011). “Rising oil prices affect economic growth.” Çevrimiçi (06.08.2018) http://www.libertyfinancials.co.za/lib/content/images/newsbreak/PolicyHolderComm/pdf/201105_global_outlook.p Loganathan, N., I. Yussof ve M. Kogid (2013). Connection between Global Oil Price Instability and Unemployment Sustainability: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia. TheEmpirical Economics Letters. 12(4). 393-402. Mellquist, H. & Femermo, M. (2007). The Relationship Between The Price of Oil And Unemployment in Sweeden. Jonkoping International Business School, Jonkoping University Ragan, C. (2008). Mork, Knut A., Oystein Olsen ve Hans T. Mysen (1994), Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries, Energy Journal, 15(4), 19-36. Mory, Javier F. (1993), Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?, Energy Journal, 14(4), 151-162. Ongun M.T. (2001) “İstikrar Arayışından Krize: Bir Değerlendirme” Gazi Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F .1-14 Özkaya.Ş. (2001) “Petrol Fiyatlarının Ekonomilere Etkisi” Uluslararası Ekonomi Sorunları Dergisi, Dışişleri Bakanlığı Yayınları, Sayı 1. http://www.mfa.gov.tr/petrol-fiyatlarinin-ekonomilere-etkisi.tr.mfa (Erişim tarihi 29/01/2018). Pamir N.(2015) “Enerjinin İktidarı” Haykitap Yayınları 2015. Parasız İ. (1998). “Kriz Ekonomisi” Ezgi Yayınevi 1998. Rafiq, Shuddhasawtta & Salim, Ruhul & Bloch, Harry, 2009. "Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical investigation in the Thai economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 121-132, September. Ran, J. ve Voon, Jan P. (2012). Does oil price shock affect small open economies? Evidencefrom Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Applied Economics Letters.19(16). 1599-1602. Robalbo, P.B. and Salvado, J.C. (2008). Oil Price Shocks and the Portuguese Economy since the1970s. FEUNL Working Paper Series. No. 529,http://ideas.repec.org/p/unl/unlfep/wp529.html. 10.08.2013. Rotemberg, J.J. ve Woodford, M., (1996), Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28(4), 549-577. Shakyani, T.M. ve Khorram, A.T.,(2017) The Relationship Between Unemployment Rate, Oil Price And Interest Rate In Iran, Quarterly Journal Of The Macro And Strategic Policies Winter 2017, Volume 4, Number 16 ,115-134 Soygüzel H. (2016) 1994 Türkiye Ekonomik Krizi Ve 5 Nisan Kararları (Çevrimiçi): http://www.ilimvemedeniyet.com/1994-turkiye-ekonomik-krizi-ve-5-nisan-kararlari.html 21.01.2018 Sönmez, M. (1985). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bunalım 24 Ocak Kararları ve Sonrası, Belge Yayınları Trang Nguyen Thi Ngoc, Tran Ngoc Tho, Dinh Thi Thu Hong,(2017) The Impact of Oil Price on the Growth, Inflation, Unemployment and Budget Deficit of Vietnam, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2017, 7(3), 42-49. ISSN: 2146-4553, Umar, G. ve Abdulhakeem, K.A. (2010). Oil Price Shocks and the Nigeria Economy: A Variance Autoregressive (VAR) Model. International Journal of Business and Management. Vol. 5.No. 8. 39-49. Weiss, K.(2015) “Oil prices could eventually affect unemployment rates”(Çevrimiçi) 08.08.2018 http://www.woodwardnews.net/news/oil-prices-could-eventually-affect-unemployment-rates/article_ee2b6934-927f-11e4-916b-afdd316e8099.html Yahia, A.F. ve Saleh, S.A. (2008). Economic Sanctions, Oil Price Fluctuations and Employment: New Empirical Evidence from Libya. American Journal of Applied Sciences. Vol.5(12).1713-1719.
- Yardımcıoğlu, F, Beşel, F,(2013) İşssizlik-Petrol Fiyatları İlişkisi Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye Örneği (1980-2012) International Periodical for the Languages, Literature and History of Turkish or Turkic Volume 8/8 Summer 2 Yılmaz A. (2015), “Sorularla İktisat Hipotez”, Pelikan Yayınları, s.307
- İNTERNET KAYNAKLARI TESAM(2017)http://tesam.org.tr/petrol-raporu/,(ErişimTarihi:18.02.2018).ORSAM (2017) http://www.orsam.org.tr/files/OA/78/25_info5.pdf) ErişimTarihi:18.03.2018).TUİK(2017)www.tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=637,(ErişimTarihi:11.02.2018).WEALTH-FUND(2018) Swfinstitute(2018)(https://www.swfinstitute.org/sovereign-wealth-fund-rankings/),(ErişimTarihi:11.02.2018).WORLDBANK(2014)http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/eca/turkey/tr-focus-note-dec-2014-tr.pdf, (ErişimTarihi:11.02.2018).
Toplam 4 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | İşletme |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Aralık 2018 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 13 Ağustos 2018 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 6 Kasım 2018 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2018 |