Preston Eğrisi ve Wilkinson Hipotezi Çerçevesinde Türkiye: Gelir Artışı, Gelir Dağılımı ve Yaşam Beklentisinin Dönüşümü

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 35 Sayı: 3, 1275 - 1288, 23.09.2025

Sacit Sarı

https://doi.org/10.18069/firatsbed.1642449

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisi bağlamında Preston Eğrisi ve Wilkinson Hipotezi’nin geçerliliğini inceleyerek kişi başına düşen gelir, gelir eşitsizliği ve kamu sağlık harcamalarının ortalama yaşam beklentisi üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmektedir. 1960-2022 dönemine ait veriler kullanılarak, grafiksel analiz ve zaman serisi yöntemleri yardımıyla değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın temel bulgularına göre, Preston Eğrisi Türkiye için geçerli olup, kişi başına düşen gelir arttıkça yaşam beklentisinin arttığı, ancak bu etkinin belirli bir gelir seviyesinden sonra azaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Gelir eşitsizliği ile yaşam beklentisi arasında negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuş, bu da Wilkinson Hipotezini destekler niteliktedir. Ayrıca, kamu sağlık harcamalarının yaşam beklentisini pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı şekilde etkilediği belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, ekonomik büyümenin sağlık göstergeleri üzerindeki etkisinin yalnızca kişi başına düşen gelirin artırılmasıyla sınırlı olmadığını, aynı zamanda gelir dağılımı eşitsizliklerinin giderilmesi ve kamu sağlık harcamalarının artırılması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Politika önerileri kapsamında, sağlık harcamalarının artırılması, gelir eşitsizliklerini azaltacak sosyal politikaların uygulanması ve sağlık hizmetlerine erişimde bölgesel dengesizliklerin giderilmesi gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Preston Eğrisi , Wilkinson Hipotezi , Gelir eşitsizliği , Yaşam beklentisi , Türkiye

Türkiye in the Framework of the Preston Curve and Wilkinson Hypothesis: The Transformation of Income Growth, Income Distribution, and Life Expectancy

Öz

This study examines the validity of the Preston Curve and Wilkinson Hypothesis in the context of the Turkish economy, analyzing the impact of per capita income, income inequality, and public health expenditures on life expectancy. Using data from 1960 to 2022, graphical analysis and time series methods were employed to investigate the relationships between these variables. The key findings indicate that the Preston Curve is valid for Türkiye, as higher per capita income increases life expectancy, but the effect diminishes beyond a certain income level. A negative and statistically significant relationship was found between income inequality and life expectancy, supporting the Wilkinson Hypothesis. Additionally, public health expenditures positively and significantly influence life expectancy, highlighting the importance of government investments in healthcare. The findings suggest that the impact of economic growth on health indicators is not solely determined by rising income levels but also by the reduction of income inequality and increased public health expenditures. Policy recommendations include expanding healthcare spending, implementing social policies to mitigate income inequality, and addressing regional disparities in healthcare access.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Preston Curve , Wilkinson Hypothesis , Income inequality , Life expectancy , Türkiye

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D., & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: the effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 115 (6), 925-985.
• Anand, S., & Ravallion, M. (1993). Human development in poor countries: on the role of private incomes and public services. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 7 (1), 133-150.
• Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2000). The health and wealth of nations. Science, 287 (5456), 1207-1209.
• Bloom, D. E., & Canning, D. (2007). Commentary: The Preston Curve 30 years on: still sparking fires. International Journal of Epidemiology, 36 (3), 498-499.
• Chen, Z., Ma, Y., Hua, J., Wang, Y., & Guo, H. (2021). Impacts from economic development and environmental factors on life expectancy: A comparative study based on data from both developed and developing countries from 2004 to 2016. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18 (16), 8559.
• Cutler, D., Deaton, A., & Lleras-Muney, A. (2006). The determinants of mortality. Journal Of Economic Perspectives, 20 (3), 97-120.
• Çukur, A., & Bekmez, S. (2011). Türkiye'de Gelir, Gelir Eşitsizliği ve Sağlık Ilişkisi: Panel Veri Analizi Bulguları. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 10(1).
• Dağdemir, Ö. (2009). Sağlık ve Ekonomik Büyüme: 1960-2005 Döneminde Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Sağlık ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Karşılıklı İlişkinin Analizi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 64 (2), 75-96. https://doi.org/10.1501/SBFder_0000002104
• Dalgaard, C. J., & Strulik, H. (2014). Optimal aging and death: understanding the Preston curve. Journal of the European Economic Association, 12 (3), 672-701.
• De la Escosura, L. P. (2023). Health, income, and the preston curve: A long view. Economics & Human Biology, 48, 101212.
• Deaton, A. (1999). Inequalities in income and inequalities in health. NBER (Working Paper No. 7141). Edwards, R. B. (2016). Mining away the Preston curve. World Development, 78, 22-36.
• Ergün, S., & Polat, M. A. (2019). Farklı Gelir Grubundaki Ülkelerde Ekonomik Büyüme ve Çevre Kalitesinin Sağlık Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21 (1), 48-75.
• Fogel, R. W. (2004). Health, nutrition, and economic growth. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 52 (3), 643-658.
• Georgiadis, G., Rodríguez, F., & Pineda, J. (2010). Has the Preston curve broken down?. Human Development Reports Research Paper, (2010/32).
• Grossman, M. (1972). On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. Journal of Political Economy, 80 (2), 223–255. https://doi.org/10.1086/259880
• Gujarati, D.N., & Porter, D.C. (2009). Basic Econometrics. New York: M cGraw-Hill Irwin.
• Hasell, J. (2023). Measuring inequality: what is the Gini coefficient?. Our World in Data.
• He, L., & Li, N. (2020). The linkages between life expectancy and economic growth: some new evidence. Empirical Economics, 58 (5), 2381-2402.
• Hepsağ, A. (2022), Ekonometrik zaman serileri analizlerinde güncel yöntemler (WinRats Uygulamalı), İstanbul: Der Yayınları.
• Husain, M. J. (2011). Revisiting the preston curve: An analysis of the joint evolution of income and life expectancy in the 20th century. (Unpublished doctoral thesis). Keele Management School.
• Jetter, M., Laudage, S., & Stadelmann, D. (2019). The intimate link between income levels and life expectancy: global evidence from 213 years. Social Science Quarterly, 100 (4), 1387-1403.
• Lutz, W., & Kebede, E. (2018). Education and health: redrawing the Preston curve. Population and Development Review, 44 (2), 343.
• Meng, M., Lee, J., & Payne, J. E. (2017). RALS-LM unit root test with trend breaks and non-normal errors: application to the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 21 (1), 31-45. Mert, M., & Çağlar, A. E. (2019). Eviews ve Gauss uygulamalı zaman serileri analizi. Ankara: Detay Yayıncılık. OECD (2021), Health at a Glance 2021: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/ae3016b9-en
• Pamuk, Ş. (2007). Economic change in twentieth century Turkey: Is the glass more than half full? The Cambridge History of Turkey, 4, 266-300.
• Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1361-1401.
• Preston, S. H. (1975). The changing relation between mortality and level of economic development. Population Studies, 29 (2), 231-248.
• Pritchett, L., & Summers, L. H. (1993). Wealthier is healthier (Vol. 1150). World Bank Publications.
• Rahman, M. M., Rana, R., & Khanam, R. (2022). Determinants of life expectancy in most polluted countries: Exploring the effect of environmental degradation. PloS One, 17 (1), e0262802.
• Rjoub, H., Odugbesan, J. A., Adebayo, T. S., & Wong, W. K. (2021). Investigating the causal relationships among carbon emissions, economic growth, and life expectancy in Turkey: evidence from time and frequency domain causality techniques. Sustainability, 13 (5), 2924.
• Rodgers, G. B. (2002). Income and inequality as determinants of mortality: An international cross-section analysis a. International Journal of Epidemiology, 31 (3), 533-538.
• Rodrik, D. (1990). Premature liberalization, incomplete stabilization: the Ozal decade in Turkey. NBER Working Paper no. 3300, 1-45.
• Siegrist, J., & Marmot, M. (2004). Health inequalities and the psychosocial environment—two scientific challenges. Social Science & Medicine, 58 (8), 1463-1473.
• Tamberi, M. (2015). Material well-being and development: Insights on the Preston curve (No. 408).
• Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK). (2022). Sağlık Harcamaları İstatistikleri, 2022. Ankara: TÜİK. https://data.tuik.gov.tr
• Wilkinson, R. G. (1992). Income distribution and life expectancy. BMJ: British Medical Journal, 304 (6820), 165. Wilkinson, R.G. (1996). Unhealthy Societies: the afflictions of inequality. London: Routledge.
• World Bank Group. (2025, 5 January). https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators World Health Organization. (2024, 29 December). https://www.who.int/about/governance/constitution indicators