Çin İhracatları ve Dışlama Etkisi Üzerine İnceleme

Yıl 2024, , 1 - 17, 28.01.2024

Selen Ozcelik

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1328065

Öz

İhracata dayalı büyüme modeli stratejisi ekonomik büyüme oranlarını artırmayı hedefleyen gelişmekte olan ülkeler için temel paradigma haline gelmiştir. Her ne kadar ihracat, gelir yaratmanın anahtarı olarak görülse de dış talebin limitli olabileceğine ilişkin endişeler bulunmaktadır. Spesifik olarak, Çin'in dikkat çekici ihracat performansının diğer ülkelerin ihracatları üzerinde muhtemel yerinden edici etkisi tartışmaların merkezinde yer almaktadır. Bu çalışma, ihracata dayalı büyüme ve Çin'in artan ihracatının çeşitli ülke ve bölgeler üzerindeki dışlama etkisine ilişkin bu literatürü gözden geçirmektedir. Ayrıca, Çin’in ihracat yapısındaki dinamik değişmeleri de yansıtan önemli ürünlerin listeleri sunulmuştur. 4 haneli Harmonize Sistem (HS) sınıflandırması kullanılarak oluşturulan ürün seçimi, 2009-2018 yılları arasında Çin’in açıklanmış karşılaştırmalı üstünlüğündeki iyileşmelere ve Çin'in en geniş global pazar payının bulunduğu tekstil, elektronik ve makine sektörlerine dayalıdır. Ek olarak, bu ürünlerin pazarında saptanan mevcut rakip, potansiyel rakip ve potansiyel kaybeden ülkelerin listeleri sunulmuştur. Bulgular, Çin ihracatının artan sofistikleşmesine bağlantılı olarak daha gelişmiş ülkeler üzerinde artan rekabetçi baskıya işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Çin Ekonomisi, İhracata Dayalı Büyüme, Dışlama Etkisi, İhracat Yapısı

A Review on China's Exports and Crowding-Out Effects

Öz

Export-led growth strategies have become the main paradigm for developing countries seeking to achieve higher economic growth. While exports are key to generating income, there are concerns regarding limitations in external demand. Specifically, China’s remarkable export performance has been at the center of debates that revolve around possible export displacement effects on other countries. This study reviews this literature on export-led growth and crowding-out effects induced by China’s growing exports on various countries and regions. Moreover, reflecting dynamic changes in export structure, lists of key products for Chinese exports are provided. While using the 4-digit level Harmonized System (HS) classification, the selection of the products is based on improvements in revealed comparative advantage (RCA) over the period from 2009 to 2018 and is specific to China’s top three sectors with the largest global market shares: textile, electronics and machinery. Additionally, lists of competitor, potential competitor and potential loser countries are identified in the markets for these specified key products. The findings demonstrate increased competitive pressures on more advanced countries in connection with the increased sophistication of Chinese exports.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Chinese Economy, Export-Led Growth, Crowding-Out, Export Structure

Kaynakça

• Akamatsu, K. (1961). A Theory of Unbalanced Growth in the World Economy. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 196-217.
• Araujo, R. A. (2012). New Insights from a Structural Economic Dynamic Approach to Balance of Payments Constrained Growth. P. A. E. Soukiazis (Ed.), Models of Balance of Payments Constrained Growth (217-238). London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Araujo, R. A. & Lima, G. T. (2007). A Structural Economic Dynamics Approach to Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 31(5), 755-774.
• Athukorala, P. C. (2009). The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is The Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?. World Economy, 32(2), 234-266.
• Balassa, B. (1965). Trade Liberalisation and “Revealed” Comparative Advantage 1. The Manchester School, 33(2), 99-123.
• Bhagwati, J. (1958). Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note. The Review of Economic Studies, 25(3), 201-205.
• Blecker, R. A. (2003). The Diminishing Returns to Export-Led Growth. The Bridge to a Global Middle Class: Development, Trade, and International Finance (259-298). Boston: Kluwer.
• Cai, F. (2010). Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend, and Lewis Turning Point in China. China Economic Journal, 3(2), 107-119.
• Cline, W. R. (1982). Can the East Asian Model of Development Be Generalized?. World Development, 10(2), 81-90.
• Cui, Y., Meng, J. & Lu, C. (2018). Recent Developments in China's Labor Market: Labor Shortage, Rising Wages and Their Implications. Review of Development Economics, 22(3), 1217-1238.
• Cunha, A. M., Lélis, M. T., Haines, A. E. & Franke, L. (2023). Exports of Manufactured Goods and Structural Change: Brazil in the Face of Chinese Competition. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 64, 1-12.
• Edwards, L. & Jenkins, R. (2014). The Margins of Export Competition: A New Approach to Evaluating the Impact of China on South African Exports to Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Policy Modeling, 36S, S132-S150.
• Eichengreen, B., Rhee, Y. & Tong, H. (2007). China and the Exports of other Asian Countries. Review of World Economics/Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 143(2), 201-226.
• Giovannetti, G. & Sanfilippo, M. (2009). Do Chinese Exports Crowd-Out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector. The European Journal of Development Research, 21(4), 506-530.
• Gouvea, R. R. & Lima, G. T. (2010). Structural Change, Balance-of-Payments Constraint, and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Multisectoral Thirlwall's Law. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 33(1), 169-204.
• Greenaway, D., Mahabir, A. & Milner, C. (2008). Has China Displaced other Asian Countries' Exports?. China Economic Review, 19(2), 152-169.
• Jarreau, J. & Poncet, S. (2012). Export Sophistication and Economic Growth: Evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics, 97(2), 281-292.
• Jenkins, R. & Barbosa, A. F. (2012). Fear for Manufacturing? China and the Future of Industry in Brazil and Latin America . The China Quarterly, 209, 59-81.
• Kaldor, N. (1970). The Case for Regional Policies. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 17(3), 337-348.
• Kaplinsky, R. (1993). Export Processing Zones in the Dominican Republic: Transforming Manufactures into Commodities. World Development, 21(11), 1851-1865.
• Kaplinsky, R., McCormick, D. & Morris, M. (2007). The Impact of China on Sub-Saharan Africa. IDS Working Paper, (291).
• Kasahara, S. (2004). The Flying Geese Paradigm: A Critical Study of its Application to East Asian Regional Development. UNCTAD Discussion Paper.
• Kong, Y. F. & Kneller, R. (2016). Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours. The World Economy, 39(2), 195-220.
• Kwan, C. H. (2002). The Rise of China and Asia’s Flying-Geese Pattern of Economic Development: An Empirical Analysis Based on US Import Statistics. NRI Papers, 52(1), 1-11.
• Lall, S. & Albaladejo, M. (2004). China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?. World Development, 32(9), 1441-1466.
• Lall, S., Weiss, J. & Oikawa, H. (2005). China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990-2002. Oxford Development Studies, 33(2), 163-194.
• Lall, S., Weiss, J. & Zhang, J. (2006). The "Sophistication" of Exports: A New Trade Measure. World Development, 34(2), 222-237.
• Lin, J. & Chang, H. J. (2009). Should Industrial Policy in Developing Countries Conform to Comparative Advantage or Defy It? A Debate between Justin Lin and Ha‐Joon Chang. Development Policy Review, 27(5), 483-502.
• Mayer, J. (2002). The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of The Literature. World Economy, 25(6), 875-894.
• Memis, E. & Ozay, O. (2019). Changing Structure of Exports and Product Sophistication in the East and Southeast Asian region. The International Trade Journal, 33(6), 495-518.
• Palley, T. (2000). Export-Led Growth: Evidence of Developing Country Crowding-Out. Economic Integration, Regionalism, and Globalization. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
• Pham, C. S., Nguyen, X., Sgro, P. & Tang, X. (2017). Has China Displaced its Competitors in High‐Tech Trade? The World Economy, 40(8), 1569-1596.
• Prebisch, P. (1962). The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. Economic Bulletin for Latin America.
• Razmi, A. (2007). Pursuing Manufacturing-Based Export Led Growth: Are Developing Countries Increasingly Crowding Each Other Out?. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 18(4), 460-482.
• Razmi, A. & Blecker, R. A. (2008). Developing Country Exports of Manufactures: Moving up the Ladder to Escape the Fallacy of Composition? The Journal of Development Studies, 44(1), 21-48.
• Razmi, A. & Blecker, R. A. (2010). Export-Led Growth, Real Exchange Rates and The Fallacy of Composition. M. S. (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth. New York: Edward Elgar.
• Stevens, C. & Kennan, J. (2006, January 1). How to Identify the Trade Impact of China on Small Countries. IDS Bulletin, 37(1).
• The Atlas of Economic Complexity. The Growth Lab at Harvard University. https://atlas.cid.harvard.edu (15 July 2023)
• The Growth Lab at Harvard University. (2019). Growth Projections and Complexity Rankings, V2 [Data set]: https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/xtaqmc