A New Cold War in the Arctic Ocean: The Strategic Moves of Russia, the US, and China

Abstract

This article examines the increasing geopolitical importance of the Arctic Ocean in the 21st century, where glaciers are melting due to climate change, through the metaphor of a ‘New Cold War’. Once a frozen landscape, the Arctic has become the centre of global power competition, offering access to rich natural resources, strategic sea lanes, and new military fields. The study analyses the strategies of the three main actors in this competition: Russia, the US, and China. Russia is attempting to build an ‘Arctic Fortress’ by increasing its military presence and control over the Northern Sea Route. The US, while pursuing a NATO-centred deterrence policy, faces capability gaps such as an ‘icebreaker deficit.’ China, an external actor, aims to create a long-term sphere of influence through its ‘Polar Silk Road’ initiative, economic investments, and scientific research. This competition is spreading to hybrid warfare arenas such as submarine infrastructure, challenging international law, and weakening cooperation mechanisms like the Arctic Council in the aftermath of the Ukraine War. The article concludes with policy recommendations for reducing tensions and rethinking regional governance by analysing these complex dynamics.

Keywords

• Arctic
• New Cold War
• Polar Silk Road
• UN Convention on the Law of the Sea

Arktik Okyanusu’nda Yeni Soğuk Savaş: Rusya, ABD ve Çin’in Stratejik Hamleleri

Öz

Bu makale, iklim değişikliğinin etkisiyle buzulların eridiği Arktik Okyanusu’nun 21. yüzyıldaki artan jeopolitik önemini, bir “Yeni Soğuk Savaş” metaforu üzerinden incelemektedir. Bir zamanlar donmuş bir coğrafya olan Arktik, zengin doğal kaynaklara, stratejik deniz yollarına ve yeni askeri sahalara erişim sunarak küresel güç rekabetinin merkezine oturmuştur. Çalışma, bu rekabetin üç ana aktörü olan Rusya, ABD ve Çin’in stratejilerini analiz etmektedir. Rusya, askeri varlığını ve Kuzey Deniz Yolu üzerindeki kontrolünü artırarak bir “Arktik Kalesi” inşa etmeye çalışmaktadır. ABD, NATO merkezli bir caydırıcılık politikası izlese de “buzkıran açığı” gibi yetenek eksiklikleriyle yüzleşmektedir. Bölge dışı bir aktör olan Çin ise “Kutup İpek Yolu” girişimi, ekonomik yatırımlar ve bilimsel araştırmalarla uzun vadeli bir nüfuz alanı yaratmayı hedeflemektedir. Bu rekabet; denizaltı altyapısı gibi hibrit savaş alanlarına yayılmakta, uluslararası hukuku zorlamakta ve Ukrayna Savaşı sonrası Arktik Konseyi gibi iş birliği mekanizmalarını zayıflatmaktadır. Makale, bu karmaşık dinamikleri analiz ederek gerilimi azaltma ve bölgesel yönetişimi yeniden düşünme üzerine politika önerileriyle son bulmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arktik
• Yeni Soğuk Savaş
• Kutup İpek Yolu
• BM Deniz Hukuku Sözleşmesi

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