Vergi Esnekliğinin Kamu Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Seçili OECD Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 3, 580 - 594, 20.09.2020

Hüseyin Kutbay , Elyasa Aksoy

https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.773021

Cited By: 1

Öz

Bu çalışmada, vergi esnekliğinin kamu harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi 7 OECD ülkesi (Kanada, İzlanda, Letonya, Litvanya, Lüksemburg, Hollanda ve İsviçre) için analiz edilmiştir. Panel veri analizi yöntemine dayanan çalışma 1997-2016 yılarını kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada bağımlı değişken olarak kamu harcamaları, bağımsız değişkenler olarak ise vergi esnekliği, tüketici fiyat endeksi ve nüfus artış oranı kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada öncelikle kullanılacak modeli belirlemek üzere Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Çarpanı testi kullanılarak tesadüfi etkiler modeli ile EKK modeli arasında hangisinin daha uygun olacağı test edilmiş olup çıkan sonuçlar tesadüfi etkiler modelinin daha uygun olduğunu göstermektedir. Sabit etkiler modeli ile tesadüfi etkiler modeli içerisinden daha uygun olanı test etmek üzere hausman testi yapılmış olup elde edilen test istatistikleri nihai olarak tesadüfi etkiler modelinin uygun olduğu yönündedir. Tesadüfi etkiler modeli esas alınarak modelde yer alabilecek sorunları tespit etmek üzere; Baltagi ve Li (1991), Born ve Breitung (2016) ve Bhargava, Franzini ve Narendranathan (1982)’ın Durbin-Watson otokorelasyon testi ve Levene, Brown ve Forsythe (1974) değişen varyans testleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ayrıca modelin yatay kesit bağımlılığı Pesaran(2004) testi ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Hem oto-korelasyon hem de değişen varyans ve yatay kesit bağımlılığın varlığı tespit edilmiş olup seriler arasındaki ilişki Driscroll ve Kraay (1998) standart hatalar ile tahmin edilmiştir. Yapılan tahminler neticesinde vergi esnekliğinin ve nüfus artış oranının kamu harcamalarını pozitif yönde etkilediği (artırdığı), tüketici fiyat endeksinin ise kamu harcamalarını negatif yönde etkilediği (azalttığı) tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

vergi esnekliği, kamu harcamaları, GSYH, Panel veri analizi

Effect of Tax Elasticity on Public Expenditures: Panel Data Analysis for Selected OECD Countries

Öz

In this study, the impact of tax elasticity on public expenditures was analyzed for 7 OECD countries (Canada, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Switzerland). The study based on panel data analysis method covers the years 1997-2016. In this study, public expenditures is used as dependent variable and tax flexibility, consumer price index and population growth rate are used as independent variables. In order to determine the model to be used firstly, the Breusch-Pagan Lagrange Multiplier test was used to test which of the random effects model and the OLS model would be more appropriate, and the results show that the random effects model is more suitable. A Hausman test was conducted to determine the model that is more suitable between the fixed effects model and the random effects model, and the test statistics obtained are ultimately shows that the random effects model is appropriate. In order to identify the problems that may be included in the model based on the random effects model; The Balbingi and Li (1991), Born and Breitung (2016) and Bhargava, Franzini and Narendranathan (1982) Durbin-Watson autocorrelation tests and Levene, Brown and Forsythe (1974) heteroscedasticity tests were performed. In addition, the cross-sectional dependency of the model was performed with Pesaran (2004) test. The relationship between the series was estimated by Driscroll and Kraay (1998) standard errors, since both auto-correlation and heteroscedasticity and the presence of cross-sectional dependence were detected. As a result of the estimations made, it has been determined that tax flexibility and population growth rate affect (increase) positively, and the consumer price index negatively affects (decreases) public expenditures.

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