Hybrid Warfare Studies and Russia’s Example in Crimea

Yıl 2015, , 261 - 277, 17.12.2015

Mehmet Erol , Şafak Oğuz

https://doi.org/10.19060/gab.22813

Cited By: 8

Öz

Although Hybrid Warfare is an old concept, theoretical studies in the western countries mainly began in the post-Col War era, focusing on asymmetrical threats against conventional superiority of western countries such as USA or Israel. September 11th attacks and 2006 Israel-Lebanon war played important roles for the evolution of hybrid warfare theories. However, there has not any consensus among scholars on a exact or unique definition of hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare became one of the main security issues for the West and especially for NATO after the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Russian military strategies, called “hybrid warfare” by the western countries, resulted in the successful annexation of Crimea and, caused a serious security problem for the West resulting important structural and functional changes for the military system of NATO. Russian activities, which have been based on surprise, ambiguity and deniability, presented a unique example for hybrid warfare studies.

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

-

Hibrit Savaş Çalışmaları ve Kırım’daki Rusya Örneği

Öz

Karma Savaş eski bir konsept olsa da batılı devletlerde bu konuya yönelik teorik çalışmalar esas olarak Soğuk Savaş sonrasında ABD ya da İsrail gibi Batılı devletlerin konvansiyonel üstünlüğüne yönelik asimetrik tehditleri esas alarak başlamıştır. 11 Eylül saldırıları ve 2006 İsrail-Hizbullah savaşı karma savaş teorilerinin gelişiminde önemli rol oynamıştır. Bununla birlikte akademisyenler arasında karma savaşın tanımı konusunda bir uzlaşma sağlanamamıştır. Rusya-Ukrayna krizinin başlamasından sonra karma savaş batılı devletler özellikle de NATO için en önemli güvenlik sorunlarından biri haline gelmiştir. Batılı devletler tarafından “karma savaş” olara nitelendirilen Rus askeri stratejileri Kırım’ın başarılı bir şekilde ilhakı ile sonuçlanmış ve NATO’nun askeri sisteminde önemli yapısal ve işlevsel değişimlere yol açacak şekilde batılı devletler için çok önemli bir güvenlik sorunu ortaya çıkarmıştır. Sürpriz, belirsizlik ve inkara dayalı Rus askeri faaliyetleri karma savaş açısından emsalsiz bir örnek teşkil etmiştir.

 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Karma Savaş, Rusya, Kırım, Gayrınizami Harp, Asimetrik Savaş

Kaynakça

• “A Secure Europe in a Better World. European Security Strategy”, Brussels, 12 December 2003.
• BERZINS Janis, Russian New Generation Warfare Is Not Hybrid Warfare, Ed. (in) Artis Pabriks and Andis Kudors, The War in Ukraine: Lessons for Europe, Konrad Adanauer Shiftung, The Centre For East European Policy Studies Uni- versity of Latvia Press, Riga, 2015.
• BLOMFİELD Adrian, “Russia ‘distributing passports in the Crimea’”, The Tele- graph, 17 August 2008.
• COALSON Robert, “Top Russian General Lays Bare Putin’s Plan for Ukraine”, Huffington Post, 09 February 2014, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert- coalson/valery-gerasimov-putin-ukraine_b_5748480.html
• “Die Russen nutzen alle Werkzeuge”, Die Zeit, 29 January 2015.
• GERASIMOV Valery, „New Challenges need to rethink the forms and methods of warfare“, http://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/14632.
• Grand Strategy: A View form Oregon, Hybrid Warfare, 7 October 2014 https:// geopolicraticus.wordpress.com/tag/georgii-isserson/
• GROBE Stefan, “Stoltenberg: NATO massively stepping up military presence in Europe”, EURONEWS, 25.03.2015, http://www.euronews.com/2015/03/25/ stoltenberg-nato-massively-stepping-up-military-presence-in-europe/
• HEDENSKOG J. - R.L. Larsson, “Russian Leverage on the CIS and the Baltic States”, Swedish Defence Research Agency, June 2007, Stockholm, http://foi.se/Re- portFiles/foir_2280.pdf, p.30-37.
• HOFFMAN Frank G., “Hybrid Threats: Neither Omnipotent Nor Unbeatable”, Foreign Policy Research Institute, Elsevier, Summer 2010 p. 442.
• HOFFMAN Frank G., “Conflict in the 21st Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars”, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, December 2007, http://www.potomacinstitute. org/images/stories/publications/potomac_hybridwar_0108.pdf
• HOFFMAN Frank G., “Hybrid Warfare and Challenges”, JFQ, Issue 52, 1st Quar- ter, 2009, p.36.
• HUBER Thomas M., Compound Warfare: That Fatal Knot, Fort Leavenworth, Army Command and General Staff College Press, 2002.
• JONES Sam, “Ukraine: Russia’s New Art of War”, Financial Times, 28 August 28 2014.
• JOHNSON David E., Hard Fighting: Israel in Lebanon and Gaza, Santa Monica, RAND Corporation, 2011.
• LEE Dave, “Russia and Ukraine in cyber ‘stand-off’”, BBC, 05 March 2014, http:// www.bbc.com/news/technology-26447200
• LOHR Eric, “What can passports tell us about Putin’s intentions?”, The Washing- ton Post, 04 March 2014.
• MACFARQUHAR Neil, “Putin contradicts claims on annexation of Crimea”, The New York Times, 09 March 2015.
• MCCULLOH Timothy - Richard Johnson, “Hybrid Warfare”, JSOU Report, 13-4, August 2013, www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA591803, p.3.
• MCCUEN John J., “Hybrid Wars”, Military Review, March-April 2008, p.108.
• MUMFORD Andrew, “Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict”, The RUSI Jour- nal, 158:2, 2013, p.40-46.
• Munich Security Report 2015, p. 21.
• MURRAY Williamson - Peter R. Mansoor, Hybrid Warfare: Fighting Complex Opponents from the Ancient World to the Present, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2012.
• “Photos link masked men in East Ukraine to Russia”, The New York Times, 20 April 2014.
• POROSHENKO Petro, “Crimea is still Ukraine”, The Wall Street Journal, 20 March PORSCHE Isaac R., “Cyberwarfare Goes Wireless”, US News, 04 April 2014, http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/world-report/2014/04/04/russia-hacks- a-us-drone-in-crimea-as-cyberwarfare-has-gone-wireless
• “Putin says Russia was ready for nuclear confrontation over Crimea”, Reuters, March 2015.
• RACZ Andras, “Russia’s Hybrid War in Ukraine: Breaking the Enemy’s Ability to Resist”, The Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA) Report 43, p.80. “Russian troops gathering at Ukraine border for exercises as standoff contin- ues”, Washington Post, 14 March 2014.
• “Russia admits that it has moved troops in Ukraine”, The Telegraph, 28 February 2014.
• SCHROEFL Joseph - Stuart Kaufman, “Hybrid Actors, Tactical Variety: Rethink- ing Asymmetric and Hybrid War”, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 37:10, 2014, 867.
• “Some 1.5 million Russian passports issued in Crimea”, Kyiv Post, 24 July 2014.
• VANDIVER John, “SACEUR: Allies must prepare for Russia ‘hybrid war’”, Stars and Stripes, 04 September 2014.
• WALKER Robert G., “Spec Fi: The U.S. Marine Corps and Special Operations”, Monterrey, Ca; Naval Post-Graduate School, December 2008, (Unpublished Master Thesis)
• Official web site of UK Defence Ministry, “Strategic Trends Programme: Future Character of Conflict”, 02 February 2010, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/ system/uploads/attachment_data/file/ 33685/FCOCReadactedFinalWeb.pdf
• Official web site of NATO, Future NATO, Speech by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at Chatham House - London, United Kingdom, 20 June 2014, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_111132.htm.
• Official web site of NATO, Speech by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen at Chatham House - London, United Kingdom, Future NATO, 19 July 2014, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/opinions_111132.htm. http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20366Vladimir Putin answered journalists’ questions on the situation in Ukraine http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6889