Afyonkarahisar için elektrik üretimi eniyilemesi
Yıl 2023,
, 1711 - 1724, 06.01.2023
Utku Köker
,
Halil Koruca
,
Egemen Sulukan
Öz
Son yıllarda enerji güvenliği, toplum ve sürdürülebilir kalkınma arasındaki ilişki, enerji planlama arayüzlerinde geliştirmeleri beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu arayüzlerin yaygınlaştırılması, toplumların yıllar içinde enerji planlaması konularına artan katılımıyla sonuçlanmıştır. Ulusal düzeyde analizler 1970'lerden beri çalışılsa da, bölgesel düzeyde enerji analizleri ancak son yıllarda popülerlik kazanmaktadır. Bu makalede, Afyonkarahisar ilinde OSeMOSYS, TIMES ve NEOS araçlarının kullanılması ile beş farklı senaryo analizi konu edilmiştir. Çalışmada 2016-2031 yılları arasında tarım, sanayi, konut, aydınlatma ve enerji sektörleri elektrik üretimi optimizasyonu açısından incelenmiştir. Makalede mevcut durum, %75 yenilenebilir enerji kısıtlı model ve üç farklı karbon vergisi senaryosu incelenmiştir. Senaryolar teknolojik, çevresel ve ekonomik açıdan karşılaştırmalı olarak incelenmiş ve bulgular, sonuçlar ve yorumlar bölümlerinde tartışılmıştır. Analiz neticesinde OSeMOSYS ve TIMES’ın bölgesel modelleme için oldukça faydalı araçlar olduğu, çeşitli senaryo analizlerini yüksek doğrulukla gerçekleştirdiği gösterilmiştir.
Destekleyen Kurum
Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinasyon Birimi
Proje Numarası
FDK-2019-6839
Teşekkür
Bu makaledeki tüm bulgular FDK-2019-6839 proje numaralı araştırmaya ait olup Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinasyon Birimi tarafından desteklenmektedir.
Kaynakça
- 1. Palz W., The Triumph of the Sun: The Energy of the New Century, CRC Press, Florida, A.B.D., 2018.
- 2. Lovins L.H., The Triumph of Solar in the Energy Race, Journal of Fundamentals of Renewable Energy and Applications, 5(187), 2, 2015.
- 3. Brook B. W. ve Bradshaw C.J., Key role for nuclear energy in global biodiversity conservation, Conservation Biology, 29(3), 702-712, 2015.
- 4. Xie H., Yu Y., Wang W., Liu Y., The substitutability of non-fossil energy, potential carbon emission reduction and energy shadow prices in China, Energy Policy, 107, 63-71, 2017.
- 5. Jiminez I., Electric power system planning in the framework of the overall energy system, 24th Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, Washington-A.B.D., 2943-2948, 6-11 Ağustos, 1989.
- 6. International Energy Agency. Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models. https://www.iea-etsap.org/MrklDoc-I_StdMARKAL.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 8, 2021.
- 7. International Energy Agency. Documentation for the times model part ii. https://www.iea-etsap.org/docs/Documentation_for_the_TIMES_Model-Part-II.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 8, 2021.
- 8. International Energy Agency. Documentation for the times model part iv. http://iea-etsap.org/docs/Documentation_for_the_TIMES_Model-Part-IV_October-2016.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 10, 2021.
- 9. Howells M., Rogner H., Strachan N., Heaps C., Huntington H., Kypreos S., ... ve Roehrl A., OSeMOSYS: the open source energy modeling system: an introduction to its ethos, structure and development, Energy Policy, 39(10), 5850-5870, 2011.
- 10. Löffler K., Hainsch K., Burandt T., Oei P.Y., Kemfert, C., Von Hirschhausen C., Designing a model for the global energy system—GENeSYS-MOD: an application of the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), Energies, 10(10), 1468, 2017.
- 11. Centre for Climate and Energy Analyses. The model for European energy system analysis MEESA. https://climatecake.ios.edu.pl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CAKE_MEESA_energy-model_documentation.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Temmuz 10, 2021.
- 12. Maïzi N. ve Assoumou E., Future prospects for nuclear power in France, Applied Energy, 136, 849-859, 2014.
- 13. Vaillancourt K., Alcocer Y., Bahn O., Fertel C., Frenette E., Garbouj H., ... ve Waaub, J.P., A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada, Applied energy, 132, 56-65, 2014.
- 14. Tsai, M.S. ve Chang, S.L., Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 49, 178-191, 2015.
- 15. Kannan R. ve Turton H., A long-term electricity dispatch model with the TIMES framework,. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 18(3), 325-343, 2013.
- 16. Kannan R., The development and application of a temporal MARKAL energy system model using flexible time slicing, Applied Energy, 88(6), 2261-2272, 2011.
- 17. Contaldi M., Gracceva F., Tosato G., Evaluation of green-certificates policies using the MARKAL-MACRO-Italy model, Energy Policy, 35(2), 797-808, 2007.
- 18. Labriet M., Cabal H., Lechón Y., Giannakidis G., Kanudia A., The implementation of the EU renewable directive in Spain. Strategies and challenges, Energy Policy, 38(5), 2272-2281, 2010.
- 19. Comodi G., Cioccolanti L., Gargiulo M., Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with Markal-TIMES, Energy Policy, 41, 303-315, 2012.
- 20. Salvia M., Pietrapertosa F., Cosmi C., Cuomo V., Macchiato, M., Approaching the Kyoto targets: a case study for Basilicata region (Italy), Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 8(1), 73-90,2004.
- 21. Büeler B.P., Computing economic equilibria and its application to international trade of CO2 permits: an agent-based approach, Doktora Tezi, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 1997.
- 22. Rafaj P, Kypreos S., Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL Model, Energy Policy, 35(2), 828-843, 2007.
- 23. Føyn, T.H.Y., Karlsson K., Balyk O., Grohnheit P.E., A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM. Applied energy, 88(2), 526-534, 2011.
- 24. Gardumi F., Shivakumar A., Morrison R., Taliotis C., Broad O., Beltramo A., ... ve Alfstad T., From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS, Energy Strategy Reviews, 20, 209-228, 2018.
- 25. Dhakouani A., Gardumi F., Znouda E., Bouden C., Howells M., Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system, Energy, 141, 550-562, 2017.
- 26. Olsson J.M. ve Gardumi F., Modelling least cost electricity system scenarios for Bangladesh using OSeMOSYS, Energy Strategy Reviews, 38, 100705, 2021.
- 27. Emodi N.V., Chaiechi T., Beg A.R.A., Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model, Applied Energy, 236, 1183-1217, 2019.
- 28. Groissböck M. ve Pickl M.J., An analysis of the power market in Saudi Arabia: Retrospective cost and environmental optimization, Applied Energy, 165, 548-558, 2016.
- 29. Anjo J., Neves D., Silva C., Shivakumar A., Howells M., Modeling the long-term impact of demand response in energy planning: The Portuguese electric system case study, Energy, 165, 456-468, 2018.
- 30. Almulla Y., Ramos E., Gardumi F., Taliotis C., Lipponen A., Howells M., The role of Energy-Water nexus to motivate transboundary cooperation:: An indicative analysis of the Drina River Basin, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 18, 3-28, 2018.
- 31. De Moura G.N.P., Legey L.F.L., Howells M., A Brazilian perspective of power systems integration using OSeMOSYS SAMBA–South America Model Base–and the bargaining power of neighbouring countries: A cooperative games approach, Energy Policy, 115, 470-485, 2018.
- 32. Dreier D. ve Howells M., OSeMOSYS-PuLP: A Stochastic Modeling Framework for Long-Term Energy Systems Modeling, Energies, 12(7), 1382, 2019.
- 33. Riva F., Gardumi F., Tognollo A., Colombo E., Soft-linking energy demand and optimisation models for local long-term electricity planning: An application to rural India, Energy, 166, 32-46, 2019.
- 34. Tomei J., Cronin J., Arias H.D.A., Machado S.C., Palacios M.F.M., Ortiz Y.M.T., ... ve Anandarajah G., Forgotten spaces: How reliability, affordability and engagement shape the outcomes of last-mile electrification in Chocó, Colombia, Energy Research & Social Science, 59, 101302, 2020.
- 35. Tekin A. ve Vural İ.Y., Global Kamusal Mallarin Finansman Araci Olarak Global Vergi Önerileri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12, 323-337, 2004.
- 36. Kovancilar B., Küresel Isınma Sorununun Çözümünde Karbon Vergisi ve Etkinliği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 7-20, 2001.
- 37. KTH Royal Institute of Technology. Model Management Infrastructure (MoManI) Training Manual. http://www.osemosys.org/uploads/1/8/5/0/18504136/momani_training_manual-_rev170612.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 7, 2019.
- 38. Sabancı Üniversitesi. Karbon Piyasalarına Hazırlık Ortaklığı (PMR) Türkiye Projesi, https://cdpturkey.sabanciuniv.edu/sites/cdpturkey.sabanciuniv.edu/files/Tuba%20Seyyah%20CDP%20sunumu_20190416%20%281%29.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 1, 2021.
- 39. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı websitesi., http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2F1%2FDocuments %2FE%C4%B0GM%20Ana%20Rapor%2FT%C3%BCrkiye%20Elektrik%20Enerjisi%20Talep%20Projeksiyonu%20Raporu.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 1, 2019.
- 40. Elektrik Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu (EPDK) websitesi.http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2F1%2FDocuments %2FSekt%C3%B6r %20Raporu%2 FEUAS-Sektor_Raporu2016.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Haziran 1, 2019.
- 41. İktisadi İşbirliği ve Gelişme Teşkilatı websitesi. https://www.oecd-nea.org/. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 1, 2021.
- 42. ETSAP websitesi. https://iea-etsap.org/. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 12, 2021.
- 43. Zorlu Enerji websitesi. https://www.zorluenerji.com.tr/fileuploads/kizildere/teknik-olmayan-ozet-tr.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Temmuz 15, 2021.
- 44. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Çevre Koruma Ajansı (EPA) Websitesi. https://www.epa.gov/sites/ production/files/2016-03/documents/stationaryemissions_3 _2016.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Temmuz 10, 2021.
- 45. OSEMOSYS GitHub websitesi. https://github.com/OSeMOSYS/OSeMOSYS. Erişim Tarihi Mayıs 03, 2021.
- 46. NEMO GitHub websitesi. https://github.com/sei-international/NemoMod.jl. Erişim Tarihi Mayıs 05, 2021.
Yıl 2023,
, 1711 - 1724, 06.01.2023
Utku Köker
,
Halil Koruca
,
Egemen Sulukan
Proje Numarası
FDK-2019-6839
Kaynakça
- 1. Palz W., The Triumph of the Sun: The Energy of the New Century, CRC Press, Florida, A.B.D., 2018.
- 2. Lovins L.H., The Triumph of Solar in the Energy Race, Journal of Fundamentals of Renewable Energy and Applications, 5(187), 2, 2015.
- 3. Brook B. W. ve Bradshaw C.J., Key role for nuclear energy in global biodiversity conservation, Conservation Biology, 29(3), 702-712, 2015.
- 4. Xie H., Yu Y., Wang W., Liu Y., The substitutability of non-fossil energy, potential carbon emission reduction and energy shadow prices in China, Energy Policy, 107, 63-71, 2017.
- 5. Jiminez I., Electric power system planning in the framework of the overall energy system, 24th Intersociety Energy Conversion Engineering Conference, Washington-A.B.D., 2943-2948, 6-11 Ağustos, 1989.
- 6. International Energy Agency. Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models. https://www.iea-etsap.org/MrklDoc-I_StdMARKAL.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 8, 2021.
- 7. International Energy Agency. Documentation for the times model part ii. https://www.iea-etsap.org/docs/Documentation_for_the_TIMES_Model-Part-II.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 8, 2021.
- 8. International Energy Agency. Documentation for the times model part iv. http://iea-etsap.org/docs/Documentation_for_the_TIMES_Model-Part-IV_October-2016.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 10, 2021.
- 9. Howells M., Rogner H., Strachan N., Heaps C., Huntington H., Kypreos S., ... ve Roehrl A., OSeMOSYS: the open source energy modeling system: an introduction to its ethos, structure and development, Energy Policy, 39(10), 5850-5870, 2011.
- 10. Löffler K., Hainsch K., Burandt T., Oei P.Y., Kemfert, C., Von Hirschhausen C., Designing a model for the global energy system—GENeSYS-MOD: an application of the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS), Energies, 10(10), 1468, 2017.
- 11. Centre for Climate and Energy Analyses. The model for European energy system analysis MEESA. https://climatecake.ios.edu.pl/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CAKE_MEESA_energy-model_documentation.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Temmuz 10, 2021.
- 12. Maïzi N. ve Assoumou E., Future prospects for nuclear power in France, Applied Energy, 136, 849-859, 2014.
- 13. Vaillancourt K., Alcocer Y., Bahn O., Fertel C., Frenette E., Garbouj H., ... ve Waaub, J.P., A Canadian 2050 energy outlook: Analysis with the multi-regional model TIMES-Canada, Applied energy, 132, 56-65, 2014.
- 14. Tsai, M.S. ve Chang, S.L., Taiwan’s 2050 low carbon development roadmap: An evaluation with the MARKAL model, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 49, 178-191, 2015.
- 15. Kannan R. ve Turton H., A long-term electricity dispatch model with the TIMES framework,. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 18(3), 325-343, 2013.
- 16. Kannan R., The development and application of a temporal MARKAL energy system model using flexible time slicing, Applied Energy, 88(6), 2261-2272, 2011.
- 17. Contaldi M., Gracceva F., Tosato G., Evaluation of green-certificates policies using the MARKAL-MACRO-Italy model, Energy Policy, 35(2), 797-808, 2007.
- 18. Labriet M., Cabal H., Lechón Y., Giannakidis G., Kanudia A., The implementation of the EU renewable directive in Spain. Strategies and challenges, Energy Policy, 38(5), 2272-2281, 2010.
- 19. Comodi G., Cioccolanti L., Gargiulo M., Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with Markal-TIMES, Energy Policy, 41, 303-315, 2012.
- 20. Salvia M., Pietrapertosa F., Cosmi C., Cuomo V., Macchiato, M., Approaching the Kyoto targets: a case study for Basilicata region (Italy), Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 8(1), 73-90,2004.
- 21. Büeler B.P., Computing economic equilibria and its application to international trade of CO2 permits: an agent-based approach, Doktora Tezi, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, 1997.
- 22. Rafaj P, Kypreos S., Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL Model, Energy Policy, 35(2), 828-843, 2007.
- 23. Føyn, T.H.Y., Karlsson K., Balyk O., Grohnheit P.E., A global renewable energy system: A modelling exercise in ETSAP/TIAM. Applied energy, 88(2), 526-534, 2011.
- 24. Gardumi F., Shivakumar A., Morrison R., Taliotis C., Broad O., Beltramo A., ... ve Alfstad T., From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS, Energy Strategy Reviews, 20, 209-228, 2018.
- 25. Dhakouani A., Gardumi F., Znouda E., Bouden C., Howells M., Long-term optimisation model of the Tunisian power system, Energy, 141, 550-562, 2017.
- 26. Olsson J.M. ve Gardumi F., Modelling least cost electricity system scenarios for Bangladesh using OSeMOSYS, Energy Strategy Reviews, 38, 100705, 2021.
- 27. Emodi N.V., Chaiechi T., Beg A.R.A., Are emission reduction policies effective under climate change conditions? A backcasting and exploratory scenario approach using the LEAP-OSeMOSYS Model, Applied Energy, 236, 1183-1217, 2019.
- 28. Groissböck M. ve Pickl M.J., An analysis of the power market in Saudi Arabia: Retrospective cost and environmental optimization, Applied Energy, 165, 548-558, 2016.
- 29. Anjo J., Neves D., Silva C., Shivakumar A., Howells M., Modeling the long-term impact of demand response in energy planning: The Portuguese electric system case study, Energy, 165, 456-468, 2018.
- 30. Almulla Y., Ramos E., Gardumi F., Taliotis C., Lipponen A., Howells M., The role of Energy-Water nexus to motivate transboundary cooperation:: An indicative analysis of the Drina River Basin, International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 18, 3-28, 2018.
- 31. De Moura G.N.P., Legey L.F.L., Howells M., A Brazilian perspective of power systems integration using OSeMOSYS SAMBA–South America Model Base–and the bargaining power of neighbouring countries: A cooperative games approach, Energy Policy, 115, 470-485, 2018.
- 32. Dreier D. ve Howells M., OSeMOSYS-PuLP: A Stochastic Modeling Framework for Long-Term Energy Systems Modeling, Energies, 12(7), 1382, 2019.
- 33. Riva F., Gardumi F., Tognollo A., Colombo E., Soft-linking energy demand and optimisation models for local long-term electricity planning: An application to rural India, Energy, 166, 32-46, 2019.
- 34. Tomei J., Cronin J., Arias H.D.A., Machado S.C., Palacios M.F.M., Ortiz Y.M.T., ... ve Anandarajah G., Forgotten spaces: How reliability, affordability and engagement shape the outcomes of last-mile electrification in Chocó, Colombia, Energy Research & Social Science, 59, 101302, 2020.
- 35. Tekin A. ve Vural İ.Y., Global Kamusal Mallarin Finansman Araci Olarak Global Vergi Önerileri. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12, 323-337, 2004.
- 36. Kovancilar B., Küresel Isınma Sorununun Çözümünde Karbon Vergisi ve Etkinliği. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(2), 7-20, 2001.
- 37. KTH Royal Institute of Technology. Model Management Infrastructure (MoManI) Training Manual. http://www.osemosys.org/uploads/1/8/5/0/18504136/momani_training_manual-_rev170612.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 7, 2019.
- 38. Sabancı Üniversitesi. Karbon Piyasalarına Hazırlık Ortaklığı (PMR) Türkiye Projesi, https://cdpturkey.sabanciuniv.edu/sites/cdpturkey.sabanciuniv.edu/files/Tuba%20Seyyah%20CDP%20sunumu_20190416%20%281%29.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 1, 2021.
- 39. Enerji ve Tabii Kaynaklar Bakanlığı websitesi., http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2F1%2FDocuments %2FE%C4%B0GM%20Ana%20Rapor%2FT%C3%BCrkiye%20Elektrik%20Enerjisi%20Talep%20Projeksiyonu%20Raporu.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 1, 2019.
- 40. Elektrik Piyasası Düzenleme Kurumu (EPDK) websitesi.http://www.enerji.gov.tr/File/?path=ROOT%2F1%2FDocuments %2FSekt%C3%B6r %20Raporu%2 FEUAS-Sektor_Raporu2016.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Haziran 1, 2019.
- 41. İktisadi İşbirliği ve Gelişme Teşkilatı websitesi. https://www.oecd-nea.org/. Erişim Tarihi Şubat 1, 2021.
- 42. ETSAP websitesi. https://iea-etsap.org/. Erişim Tarihi Ocak 12, 2021.
- 43. Zorlu Enerji websitesi. https://www.zorluenerji.com.tr/fileuploads/kizildere/teknik-olmayan-ozet-tr.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Temmuz 15, 2021.
- 44. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Çevre Koruma Ajansı (EPA) Websitesi. https://www.epa.gov/sites/ production/files/2016-03/documents/stationaryemissions_3 _2016.pdf. Erişim Tarihi Temmuz 10, 2021.
- 45. OSEMOSYS GitHub websitesi. https://github.com/OSeMOSYS/OSeMOSYS. Erişim Tarihi Mayıs 03, 2021.
- 46. NEMO GitHub websitesi. https://github.com/sei-international/NemoMod.jl. Erişim Tarihi Mayıs 05, 2021.