Business resilience in the face of multiple crises: A dynamic perspective

Öz

This study examines the effects of geopolitical risks and economic crises on business management resilience in Türkiye for the 2010:01–2024:09 period. A unique time series, constructed using the ratio of closed to established businesses, measures resilience. Employing RALS-LM unit root and Hatemi-J Asymmetric Causality tests, the analysis identifies two structural breaks in the resilience series: late 2020, reflecting the pandemic's peak impact, and December 2021, marking post-pandemic adaptation amidst currency depreciation and economic uncertainties. The findings highlight an asymmetry in the relationship between resilience and geopolitical risks: rising risks weaken resilience, but subsequent decreases do not lead to immediate recovery. This persistent effect is linked to prolonged uncertainty, cautious business behavior, and time lags in rebuilding confidence. By uncovering the asymmetric impact of geopolitical risks and introducing a novel resilience measure, this study provides critical insights for understanding business vulnerabilities in crisis contexts. It also offers strategic guidance for enhancing resilience through targeted policies, particularly in periods of heightened risks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• economic crisis
• business resilience
• RALS-LM
• asymmetric causality

Çoklu krizler karşısında işletme dayanıklılığı: Dinamik bir perspektif

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2010:01-2024:09 dönemi için Türkiye'de jeopolitik risklerin ve ekonomik krizlerin iş yönetimi esnekliği üzerindeki etkilerini incelemektedir. Kapanan işletmelerin kurulan işletmelere oranı kullanılarak oluşturulan özgün bir zaman serisi, dayanıklılığı ölçmektedir. RALS-LM birim kök ve Hatemi-J Asimetrik Nedensellik testlerini kullanan analiz, dayanıklılık serisinde iki yapısal kırılma tespit etmektedir: pandeminin zirve etkisini yansıtan 2020 sonu ve para birimindeki değer kaybı ve ekonomik belirsizliklerin ortasında pandemi sonrası adaptasyonu işaret eden Aralık 2021. Bulgular, dayanıklılık ve jeopolitik riskler arasındaki ilişkide bir asimetrinin altını çiziyor: artan riskler dayanıklılığı zayıflatıyor ancak; sonraki düşüşler hemen iyileşmeye yol açmıyor. Bu kalıcı etki, uzun süreli belirsizlik, temkinli iş davranışı ve güvenin yeniden inşasındaki gecikmelerle bağlantılıdır. Bu çalışma, jeopolitik risklerin asimetrik etkisini ortaya çıkararak ve yeni bir dayanıklılık ölçütü sunarak, kriz bağlamlarında iş dünyasının kırılganlıklarını anlamak için kritik bilgiler sağlamaktadır. Ayrıca, özellikle risklerin arttığı dönemlerde, hedeflenen politikalar yoluyla dayanıklılığın artırılması için stratejik rehberlik sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ekonomik kriz
• işletme dayanıklılğı
• RALS-LM
• asimetrik nedensellik

Kaynakça

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