Barış görünümü ve turizm performansı arasındaki ilişkide marka imajının aracılık rolü: 72 ülke üzerine bir analiz

Öz

Günümüz küresel turizm pazarında destinasyon rekabetçiliği, yalnızca sahip olunan çekirdek kaynaklarla değil, bu kaynakların içinde bulunduğu yapısal barış ortamı ve bu ortamın algısal olarak nasıl yönetildiğiyle de şekillenmektedir. Bu çalışma, destinasyon rekabetçiliğinin yapısal bir bileşeni olan barış görünümünün (çatışma düzeyi, toplumsal emniyet, askerileşme), turizm marka imajı aracılığıyla ekonomik performansa (turist varışları ve turizm gelirleri) nasıl dönüştüğünü incelemektedir. UN Tourism (2024), IEP (2025), WEF (2024) ve Bloom Consulting (2024/2025) raporlarından derlenen verilerle, tanısal testler sonucunda belirlenen 72 ülke üzerinde PROCESS Macro (Model 4) ve bootstrapping yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, modelin turizm performansındaki değişimin yaklaşık %84’ünü açıkladığını (R²=0,838) göstermektedir. Barış görünümü destinasyon marka imajını güçlü ve pozitif yönde etkilemekte; marka imajı ise performans üzerinde belirleyici bir rol oynamaktadır. Aracılık testleri, barış görünümü-performans ilişkisinde marka imajı üzerinden işleyen tam aracılıkla uyumlu, baskın bir dolaylı etki örüntüsüne işaret etmektedir. Sonuçlar, yapısal barış kapasitesinin ekonomik çıktıya dönüşebilmesi için imaj yönetiminin kritik bir koşul olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, barış görünümünü yalnızca dışsal bir çevre değişkeni olarak değil, “algısal yönetişim” perspektifiyle performansa taşınabilen aktif bir rekabet unsuru olarak konumlandırarak literatüre özgün katkı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• destinasyon rekabetçiliği
• barış görünümü
• marka imajı
• turizm performansı
• algısal yönetişim.

Etik Beyan

Araştırma, yalnızca kamuya açık kurumsal veri kaynaklarından derlenen ikincil veriler temel alınarak yürütülmüştür. Çalışma kapsamında insan katılımcılarla doğrudan etkileşim kurulmamış, anket, görüşme, gözlem veya deneysel bir uygulama gerçekleştirilmemiştir. Bu nedenle araştırma, etik kurul izni gerektiren insan katılımcılı araştırmalar kapsamında değerlendirilmemektedir. Araştırmada kullanılan veriler açık erişimli uluslararası raporlardan elde edilmiş olup veri kullanımında bilimsel etik ilkelerine ve uygun atıf standartlarına bağlı kalınmıştır.

The mediating role of brand image in the relationship between peace perception and tourism performance: An analysis of 72 countries

Öz

In today's global tourism market, destination competitiveness is shaped not only by the core resources possessed but also by the structural peace environment in which these resources exist and how this environment is perceptually managed. This study examines how peace outlook (level of conflict, societal safety, and militarization), as a structural component of destination competitiveness, translates into economic performance (tourist arrivals and tourism receipts) through the mediation of tourism brand image. Using data compiled from the UN Tourism (2024), IEP (2025), WEF (2024), and Bloom Consulting (2024/2025) reports, the PROCESS Macro (Model 4) and bootstrapping method were applied to a sample of 72 countries determined after diagnostic testing. The findings show that the model explains 84% of the variance in tourism performance (R² = 0.84). The peace outlook has a strong and positive impact on the destination brand image ; while the brand image plays a decisive role in performance. Mediation tests indicate a dominant indirect effect pattern consistent with full mediation operating through brand image in the relationship between peace outlook and performance. The results reveal that image management is a critical condition for structural peace capacity to translate into economic output. The study provides an original contribution to the literature by positioning the peace outlook not merely as an external environmental variable, but as an active competitive element that can be carried over to performance through the perspective of "perceptual governance".

Anahtar Kelimeler

• destination competitiveness
• peace outlook
• brand image
• tourism performance
• perceptual governance.

Etik Beyan

This research relied solely on secondary data obtained from publicly available institutional sources. As the study did not involve human participants, nor any form of data collection through surveys, interviews, observations, or experimental interventions, ethics committee approval was not required. All data were derived from publicly accessible international reports and databases, and the research was conducted in accordance with accepted standards of academic integrity, research ethics, and proper citation practices.

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