COVID-19 çalkantısı sırasında hükümet müdahalelerinin Borsa İstanbul üzerindeki etkisi

Öz

Aralık ayı sonu itibariyle ortaya çıkan COVID-19 daha sonra hızla tüm dünyaya yayılmıştır. 11 Mart 2020’de Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO) hastalığın salgın olduğunu ilan ederek ülkeleri bazı önlemler almaları konusunda uyarmıştır. Bu nedenle hükümetler kısıtlayıcı önlemler alırken, bir yandan da ekonomiyi desteklemeye çalışmışlardır. Bu araştırma, 10 Mart 2020 - 17 Nisan 2020 tarihleri arasında COVID-19’a karşı Türk hükümetinin almış olduğu önlemlerin Borsa İstanbul üzerindeki etkisini En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi ile analiz etmektedir. Sıkılık endeksi, muhafaza ve sağlık endeksi ve ekonomik destek endeksi, hükümetin salgına müdahalelerini değerlendirmek için kullanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre vaka sayısındaki artış borsa getirilerini olumsuz etkilemektedir. Hükümetin almış olduğu sosyal mesafe önlemleri borsa getirilerini olumsuz etkilerken, muhafaza ve sağlık politikaları ile ekonomik destek paketleri ise borsa getirileri üzerinde olumlu etki oluşturmaktadır. Son olarak vakalardaki artışın sıkılık endeksi, muhafaza ve sağlık endeksi ve ekonomik destek endeksi ile etkileşimi sırasıyla incelenmiştir. Yatırımcıların sosyal mesafe önlemlerinin, muhafaza ve sağlık politikalarının ve ekonomik destek paketlerinin pandemiyi kontrol altına almak için yeterli olmadığına yönelik beklentilerinden dolayı sonuçlar anlamlı çıkmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• Borsa İstanbul
• Finansal Piyasalar
• Sıkılık Endeksi
• Ekonomik Destek Endeksi

The impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 turmoil on Borsa Istanbul

Öz

COVID-19, which emerged as of the end of December 2019, proceeded to spread all over the world. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the disease a pandemic and warned countries to take certain precautions. While governments were taking restrictive measures, they also tried to support the economy. This research analyzes the impact of the Turkish government’s interventions against COVID-19 on Borsa Istanbul for the period between March 10, 2020 and April 17, 2020 applying the pooled OLS. The stringency index, containment and health index, and economic support index are used to evaluate the government’s responses to the pandemic. According to the findings, the increase in the number of cases negatively affects stock market returns. While social distancing measures taken by the government have a negative impact on stock returns, containment and healthcare policies and economic support packages have a positive effect on stock returns. Lastly, the interaction of the growth in confirmed cases with stringency index, containment and health index and economic support index are respectively examined. The findings are not significant as investors apparently expect that the social distancing measures, healthcare policies, and economic support packages are not adequate to control the pandemic.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVID-19
• Borsa Istanbul
• Financial Markets
• Stringency Index
• Economic Support Index

Kaynakça

1. Al-Awadhi, A. M., Alsaifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A. and Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326
2. Alon, I. (2020). COVID-19 and International Business: A Viewpoint. FIIB Business Review, 9(2), 75–77. https://doi.org/10.1177/2319714520923579
3. Ashraf, B. N. (2020a). Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100371
4. Ashraf, B. N. (2020b). Stock markets’ reaction to COVID-19: Cases or fatalities? Research in International Business and Finance, 54, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101249
5. Ashraf, B. N. (2020c). Stock markets’ reaction to Covid-19: Moderating role of national culture. Finance Research Letters, 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101857
6. Baig, A. S., Butt, H. A., Haroon, O. and Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). Deaths, panic, lockdowns and US equity markets: The case of COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, (July). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101701
7. Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J. and Terry, S. J. (2020). COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty (NBER Working Paper Series No. NBER Working Paper 26983). Cambridge.
8. Baldwin, R. and Mauro, B. W. di (Eds.). (2020). Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It Takes. London: CEPR Press. Barrot, J.-N., Grassi, B. and Sauvagnat, J. (2020). Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Mandated Business Closure in Pandemic.

9. Cavlak, H. (2020). Covid-19 pandemisinin finansal raporlama üzerindeki olası etkileri: BİST 100 Endeksi’ndeki işletmelerin ara dönem finansal raporlarının incelenmesi. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, (Special Issue), 143–168.
10. Cepoi, C. O. (2020). Asymmetric dependence between stock market returns and news during COVID-19 financial turmoil. Finance Research Letters, 36, 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101658
11. Chen, M.-H., Demir, E., García-Gómez, C. D. and Zaremba, A. (2020). The impact of policy responses to COVID-19 on U.S. travel and leisure companies. Annals of Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 1, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annale.2020.100003
12. Chen, S., Igan, D., Pierri, N. and Presbitero, A. F. (2020). Tracking the economic impact of COVID-19 and mitigation policies in Europe and the United States.
13. Cheng, C., Barceló, J., Hartnett, A. S., Kubinec, R. and Messerschmidt, L. (2020). COVID-19 Government Response Event Dataset (CoronaNet v.1.0). Nature Human Behaviour, 4(7), 756–768. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0909-7
14. Clemens, J. and Veuger, S. (2020). Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic for State Government Tax Revenues. Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27426
15. Cohen-Tanugi, L. (2008). The Shape of the World to Come: Charting the Geopolitics of a New Century. New York: Columbia University Press. Debata, B., Patnaik, P. and Mishra, A. (2020). COVID-19 pandemic! It’s impact on people, economy, and environment. Journal of Public Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2372
16. Donthu, N. and Gustafsson, A. (2020). Effects of COVID-19 on business and research. Journal of Business Research, 117, 284–289. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.06.008
17. Drori, G. S., Meyer, J. W. and Hwang, H. (Eds.). (2006). Globalization and Organization World Society and Organizational Change. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
18. Elenev, V., Landvoigt, T. and Van Nieuwerburgh, S. (2020). Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy? Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27207 Euler Hermes. (2020). Financial and risk literacy survey: resilience in times of Corona. Retrieved January 2, 2021, from https://www.eulerhermes.com/en_global/news-insights/economic-insights/Financial-and-risk-literacy-survey-resilience-in-the-time-of-Corona.html
19. Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economy. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3557504
20. Gopinath, G. (2020). The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression. Retrieved November 4, 2021, from https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/
21. Gupta, M., Abdelmaksoud, A., Jafferany, M., Lotti, T., Sadoughifar, R. and Goldust, M. (2020). COVID-19 and economy. Dermatologic Therapy, 33(4). https://doi.org/10.1111/dth.13329
22. Gupta, S., Nguyen, T., Rojas, F. L., Raman, S., Lee, B., Bento, A., … Wing, C. (2020). Tracking Public and Private Responses to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions. Cambridge, MA. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27027
23. Hale, T., Angrist, N., Cameron-Blake, E., Hallas, L., Kira, B., Majumdar, S., … Webster, S. (2020). Variation in government responses to COVID-19. BSG Working Paper Series. Blavatnik School of Government. University of Oxford. Retrieved from www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracker
24. Hale, T., Angrist, N., Kira, B., Petherick, A., Phillips, T. and Webster, S. (2020). Variation in Government Responses to COVID-19 - Version 6.0. BSG Working Paper Series. Blavatnik School of Government. University of Oxford. Retrieved from www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracker
25. Harari, D. and Keep, M. (2020). Coronavirus: Economic impact. London.
26. IMF. (2020). World Economic Outlook - Chapter 1: The Great Lockdown.
27. International Labour Organization - ILO. (2020). ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Sixth edition - Updated estimates and analysis.
28. Kandil Göker, İ. E., Eren, B. S. and Karaca, S. S. (2020). The impact of the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on the Borsa Istanbul sector index returns: An event study. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 19(COVID-19 Special Issue), 14–41. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/doi/10.21547/jss.731980
29. Karmaker, C. L., Ahmed, T., Ahmed, S., Ali, S. M., Moktadir, M. A. and Kabir, G. (2021). Improving supply chain sustainability in the context of COVID-19 pandemic in an emerging economy: Exploring drivers using an integrated model. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 26, 411–427. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2020.09.019
30. Keleş, E. (2020). COVID-19 ve BIST-30 endeks üzerine kısa dönemli etkileri. Marmara Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, 42(1), 91–105. Kilic, Y. (2020). Borsa İstanbul’da COVID - 19 (Koronavirüs) etkisi. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 66–77.
31. Lee, K. Y. M., Jais, M. and Chan, C. W. (2020). Impact of Covid-19: Evidence from Malaysian stock market. International Journal of Business and Society, 21(2), 607–628.
32. McKee, M. and Stuckler, D. (2020). If the world fails to protect the economy, COVID-19 will damage health not just now but also in the future. Nature Medicine, 26, 640–648.
33. McKibbin, W. and Fernando, R. (2020). The Economic Impact of COVID-19. In R. Baldwin & B. W. di Mauro (Eds.), Economics in the Time of COVID-19 (pp. 45–52). London: CEPR Press.
34. McKinsey & Company. (2020, April). COVID-19: Implications for Business. Our Insights (Executive Briefing).
35. Mishra, M. K. (2020). The World after COVID-19 and its impact on Global Economy. Hamburg.
36. OECD. (2020). Business Confidence Index (BCI). Retrieved May 12, 2020, from https://data.oecd.org/leadind/business-confidence-index-bci.htm Presenza, A. and Sheehan, L. R. (Eds.). (2018). Geopolitics and Strategic Management in the Global Economy. Hershey: IGI Global.
37. Ramelli, S. and Wagner, A. F. (2020). Feverish Stock Price Reactions to the Novel Coronavirus. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3550274
38. Sharma, P., Leung, T. Y., Kingshott, R. P. J., Davcik, N. S. and Cardinali, S. (2020). Managing uncertainty during a global pandemic: An international business perspective. Journal of Business Research, 116, 188–192. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.05.026
39. Şişmanoğlu, E. (2020). The risk and uncertainty affect of Covid-19 pandemic on business. In N. Susam (Ed.), The Covid-19 Pandemic Global Risks and Uncertainties (pp. 47–68). İstanbul: Istanbul University Press. https://doi.org/10.26650/B/SS10.2020.016.03
40. Steger, M. B. (2003). Globalization: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
41. Susam, N. (Ed.). (2020). The Covid-19 Pandemic Global Risks and Uncertainties. İstanbul: Istanbul University Press.
42. Topcu, M. and Gulal, O. S. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets. Finance Research Letters, 36, 101691. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101691
43. United Nations. (2020). Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Trade and Development. New York: United Nations Publications.
44. Vidya, C. T. and Prabheesh, K. P. (2020). Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Trade Networks. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2408–2421. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785426
45. World Bank. (2021). Global Economic Prospects, January 2021. Washington: The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1612-3