The Asymmetric Impact of Geopolitical Risks on Green and Conventional Real Estate Markets

Öz

This study aims to analyze the dynamic impact of global geopolitical risks (GPR) on both green and conventional real estate markets through a comparative perspective. Utilizing daily data spanning from December 19, 2016, to December 9, 2025, the green real estate market is represented by the Dow Jones Developed Green Real Estate Index, while the conventional market is proxied by the S&P Global REIT Index. Geopolitical risk is measured using the widely recognized index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2022). The methodological framework of the study employs the "Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) Connectedness" approach developed by Gabauer and Stenfors (2024), which captures asymmetric interactions between markets. The empirical findings reveal that both real estate indices exhibit a pronounced quantile-dependent response to geopolitical risk. Specifically, connectedness intensifies during high geopolitical risk regimes, indicating that shock transmission strengthens and market co-movement increases during periods of stress. Furthermore, it is observed that green real estate assets exhibit higher sensitivity to geopolitical stress. This suggests that sustainability-oriented assets may become more vulnerable during periods of elevated uncertainty. In conclusion, geopolitical shocks induce asymmetric and regime-dependent spillovers in real estate markets. These results provide critical implications for effective risk management, strategic portfolio diversification, and the design of macro-prudential policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Real Estate Markets
• Geopolitical Risk
• Sustainable Real Estate Indices

Jeopolitik Risklerin Yeşil ve Geleneksel Gayrimenkul Piyasaları Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkisi

Öz

Bu çalışma, küresel jeopolitik risklerin (GPR) hem yeşil hem de geleneksel gayrimenkul piyasaları üzerindeki dinamik etkilerini karşılaştırmalı bir perspektifle analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. 19 Aralık 2016 ile 9 Aralık 2025 tarihlerini kapsayan günlük verilerin kullanıldığı araştırmada; yeşil gayrimenkul piyasası Dow Jones Developed Green Real Estate Index, geleneksel piyasa ise S&P Global REIT endeksi ile temsil edilmiştir. Jeopolitik risk değişkeni için ise literatürde geniş kabul gören Caldara ve Iacoviello (2022) endeksi temel alınmıştır. Çalışmada, Gabauer ve Stenfors (2024) tarafından geliştirilen ve piyasalar arasındaki asimetrik etkileşimleri ölçen "Quantile-on-Quantile Connectedness" yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, her iki gayrimenkul endeksinin de jeopolitik riske karşı belirgin bir kantile bağımlı tepki verdiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle jeopolitik riskin yüksek olduğu rejimlerde bağlantılılık şiddetlenmekte; bu durum, stres dönemlerinde şok iletiminin güçlendiğini ve piyasaların birlikte hareket etme eğiliminin arttığını göstermektedir. Bunun yanı sıra, yeşil gayrimenkul varlıklarının jeopolitik strese karşı daha yüksek duyarlılık sergilediği gözlemlenmiştir. Bu durum, sürdürülebilirlik odaklı varlıkların yüksek belirsizlik dönemlerinde daha kırılgan hale gelebileceğine işaret etmektedir. Sonuç olarak jeopolitik şoklar, gayrimenkul piyasalarında asimetrik ve rejime bağlı yayılımlara yol açmaktadır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar; etkin risk yönetimi, stratejik portföy çeşitlendirmesi ve makro ihtiyati politika tasarımı açısından kritik çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gayrimenkul Piyasaları
• Jeopolitik Risk
• Sürdürülebilir Gayrimenkul Endeksleri

Kaynakça

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