An Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth within the Endogenous Growth Model Framework in Turkey

Öz

States may be a guide on the course of economic activities with public expenditures and tax policies. Tax policies can directly affect employment and investment through taxation of income, as well as reduce economic growth by reducing the marginal productivity of capital (physical/human) and investments. In terms of expenditure policies, both direct public investments and public expenditures have an impact on long term growth. In this study, the effects of public expenditures and taxes, which are fiscal policy instruments, on long term growth performance were investigated within the endogenous growth model framework. The empirical findings of the study, which was discussed for the years 1988-2020 within the framework of the ARDL method, showed results in the expected direction with the theory. According to the results of the analysis, public expenditures, enrolment rate, indirect taxes, labor force participation and public investments affect economic growth positively in the long term. On the other hand, direct taxes have a negative effect on economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fiscal Policy
• Tax Structure
• Public Expenditure
• Economic Growth

TÜRKİYE’DE MALİYE POLİTİKALARININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİNİN İÇSEL BÜYÜME MODELİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE ANALİZİ

Öz

Devletler kamu harcamaları ve vergi politikalarıyla ekonomik faaliyetlerin seyri üzerinde yol gösterici olabilmektedir. Vergi politikaları, gelirin vergilendirilmesi yoluyla doğrudan istihdam ve yatırımları etkileyebileceği gibi sermayenin (fiziksel/beşeri) ve yatırımların marjinal verimliliğini azaltarak da ekonomik büyümeyi düşürülebilir. Harcama politikaları açısından ise gerek doğrudan kamu yatırımları gerekse kamu harcamaları uzun dönem büyüme oranları üzerinde etkili olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada maliye politikası araçlarından kamu harcamaları ve vergilerin uzun dönem büyüme performansı üzerindeki etkisi içsel büyüme modeli çerçevesinde araştırılmıştır. ARDL yöntemi çerçevesinde 1988-2020 yılları için ele alınan çalışmanın ampirik bulguları teori ile beklenen yönde sonuçlar göstermiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları, dolaylı vergiler, işgücüne katılım, okullaşma oranı ve kamu yatırımları uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Öte yandan dolaysız vergiler ise ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif yönde bir etki göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Maliye Politikası
• Vergi Yapısı
• Kamu Harcamaları
• Ekonomik Büyüme

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