A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques for House Price Prediction with Optuna-Based Hyperparameter Optimization

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 10 - 28, 24.03.2025

Vahid Sinap

https://doi.org/10.29109/gujsc.1544987

Öz

Effectively predicting house prices plays a critical role in shaping the economy. This study aims to identify the best-performing machine learning model for predicting house prices. For this purpose, various models were trained using 10 different supervised regression algorithms. Hyperparameter tuning methods such as Grid Search, Random Search, and Optuna were applied to optimize the performance of these models. Metric values obtained from the training and test sets were used to evaluate the overall performance of the models. The research results indicate that hyperparameter tuning methods are a critical factor influencing the overall success of the models. The Gradient Boosting Regressor model optimized with Optuna was identified as the most successful model for predicting house prices, achieving a high R2 score (0.6558) and a low RMSE value (4469.48) on the test dataset. Optuna demonstrated a significant advantage in hyperparameter optimization compared to other methods due to its precision and efficiency.

Anahtar Kelimeler

House price prediction, Machine learning, Performance comparison, Hyperparameter optimization, Optuna

Optuna Tabanlı Hiper Parametre Optimizasyonu ile Konut Fiyat Tahminlemede Makine Öğrenmesi Tekniklerinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Öz

Konut fiyatlarının etkili bir şekilde tahmin edilmesi, ekonominin şekillenmesinde kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, konut fiyatlarını tahminlemede en iyi performans gösteren makine öğrenmesi modelini belirlemektir. Bu amaçla, 10 farklı denetimli regresyon algoritması kullanılarak çeşitli modeller eğitilmiştir. Modellerin performansını optimize etmek amacıyla Grid Search, Random Search ve Optuna gibi hiper parametre ayarlama yöntemleri uygulanmıştır. Eğitim ve test setlerinde elde edilen metrik değerler, modellerin genel performansını değerlendirmek için kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçları, hiper parametre ayarlama yöntemlerinin modellerin genel başarısını etkileyen kritik bir faktör olduğunu göstermiştir. Optuna ile optimize edilen Gradyan Artırma Regresyonu modeli, test veri setinde elde ettiği yüksek R2 değeri (0.6558) ve düşük RMSE değeri (4469.48) ile konut fiyatlarını tahminlemede en başarılı model olarak belirlenmiştir. Optuna, hiper parametre optimizasyonunda sağladığı hassasiyet ve etkinlik ile diğer yöntemlere kıyasla belirgin bir üstünlük sunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Konut fiyat tahmini, Makine öğrenmesi, Performans karşılaştırması, Hiper parametre optimizasyonu, Optuna

Kaynakça

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