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PARA ARZI İÇSELLİK ANALİZİ TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (2006-2017)

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 25, 136 - 152, 06.01.2019

Öz

Para Arzı İçsellik Analizi Türkiye Örneği (2006-2017) isimli çalışma
yazar tarafından araştırılan ampirik bir çalışmadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı
Türkiye’de 2006Q1-2017Q4 döneminde para arzının içsel olup olmadığını
belirlemektir. Para arzının içsel olup olmadığı iktisat literatürde nedensellik
analizleri ile belirlenmektedir. Bu çalışmada nedensellik analizlerini
gerçekleştirmek için değişken olarak M1, M2 ve M3 Para Arzları, Toplam Kredi
Hacmi, Nominal Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla ve Tüketici Fiyat Endeksleri
kullanılmıştır. Öncelikle değişkenlerin durağanlık durumları Augment Dickey
Füller ve Phillips-Perron birim kök testleri ile belirlenmiştir. Birim kök test
sonuçlarına göre değişkenler farklı düzeyde durağan bulunmuştur. Farklı düzeyde
durağan serilerle Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi yapılmıştır. Yapılan
nedensellik test sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgulara göre analiz döneminde Türkiye’de
para arzının içsel olmadığı belirlenmiştir. 

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad, N. ve Ahmed, F. (2006), “The Long-Run And Short-Run Endogeneity Of Money Supply İn Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation”, SBP Research Bulletin, 2(1), 267-278.
  • Almutair, S. (2015), “Dynamics Of The Relationship Between Bank Loans And Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 5.
  • Badarudin, Z. E., Ariff, M. ve Khalid, A. M. (2011), “Money Supply Endogeneity And Bank Stock Returns”, Applied Financial Economics, 21(14), 1035-1048.
  • Badarudin, Z. E., Khalid, A. M. ve Ariff, M. (2012), “Exogenous Or Endogenous Money Supply: Evidence From Australia”, The Singapore Economic Review, 57(04), 1250025.Choi, W. G. (2000), “Endogenous Money Supply And Money Demand”, IMF Working Paper, WP/00/188.
  • Cin, M. F. (2012), Post-Keynezyen İktisat. Ankara, Efil YayıneviCottrell, A. (1986), “The Endogeneıty of Money And Money‐Income Causalıty”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 33(1), 2-27.
  • Çavuşoğlu, A. T. (2003), “ The Endogenous Money Growth: An Outcome Of High Budget Deficits in Turkey”, HÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 111-127.
  • Çil Yavuz, Nilgün (2015), Finansal Ekonometri, 2. Baskı, İstanbul: Der Yayınevi.
  • Davidson, Paul (1978), Money And The Real World, London: Macmillan Press, 2. Baskı Springer.Deravi, M. K. (1987), “Endogeneity Of The Money Supply: The Monetarists Proposition Revisited”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 15(3), 79-79.
  • Deravi, M. K. ve Hegji, C. E. (1990), “Monetary Regimes And Money Supply Endogeneity”, Applied Economics, 22(10), 1355-1364.
  • Elhendawy, E. O. (2016), “Money Supply - Exogenous or Endogenous? An Empirical Evidence From Egypt”, International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, UK, Vol. IV, Issue 2.
  • Enders, W. (2015), Applied Econometric Time Series, 4. Edition,
  • Alabama, USA: John Wiley and Sons
  • Erataş, F., Nur, H. B. ve Çınar, S. (2015), “Para Arzının Post Keynesyen Yorumu: Gelişmiş Ülkeler Örneği”, Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Yıl, 3, 398-409.Granger, C. W. J. (1988), “Causality, Cointegration, and Control ”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 551-559.
  • Greenidge, K.; Craıgwell, R. ve Downes, D. (2001), “Can Money Endogeneity Be Generalized? Empirical Evidence From Caribbean Economies”, International Advances in Economic Research, 7(2), 253-258.
  • Güney, İ. E. ve Çepni, O. (2016), “Endogeneity of Money Supply: Evidence From Turkey”, Research Notes In Economıcs, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. No: 2016-19, 1-12Hill, R. C., Griffith, W. E. ve Lim, G. C. (2011), Principles of Econometrics. USA, Wiley.4th.edition.
  • Holtemöller, O. (2003), “Money Stock, Monetary Base and Bank Behavior in Germany/Geldmenge, Geldbasis und Bankenverhalten in Deutschland”, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 223(3), 257-278.
  • Howells, P. ve Hussein, K. (1998), “The Endogeneity Of Money: Evidence From The G7”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(3), 329-340.
  • Işık, S. ve Kahyaoğlu, H. (2009), “Para Arzının İçselliği Hipotezi: Türkiye’den Bulgu (1987- 2007)”, Econ Anadolu, 17-19.Işık, S. (2010), Para, Finans Ve Kriz: Post Keynesyen Yaklaşım, 2. Baskı, Ankara: Palme Yayıncılık
  • Kaldor, N. (1985), The Scourge of Monetarism, Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Köksel, B. (2016), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Arzının İçselliği: 2006-2014 Dönemi Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 30 2016 Sayı: 2Lavoie, M. (1984), “The Endogenous Flow of Credit And The Post Keynesian Theory of Money”, Journal of Economic Issues, 18(3), 771-797.
  • Levrero, E. S. ve Deleidi, M. (2017), “The Money Creation Process: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis For The US, MPRA Paper No. 81970, 1-30.
  • Myatt, A. (1986), “Money Supply Endogeneity: An Empirical Test for the United States, 1954-84, Journal of Economic Issues, 20:1, 133-144.
  • Moore, B. J. (1986), “How Credit Drives The Money Supply: The Significance of Institutional Developments”, Journal of Economic Issues, 20(2), 443-452.
  • Moore, B. J. (1988), “The Endogenous Money Supply”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 10(3), 372-385.
  • Moore, B. J. (1989), “The Endogeneity Of Credit Money”, Review of Political Economy, 1(1), 65-93.
  • Nayan, S., Kadir, N., Yusof, A. H. ve Ali, N. A. M. (2016) “Money Supply Endogeneity: Evidence From The Dynamic Panel Data”, In Proceedings of The ASEAN Entrepreneurship Conference 2014, Springer, Singapore, pp. 233-242.
  • Nayan, S., Kadir, N., Abdullah, M. S. ve Ahmad, M. (2013), “Post Keynesian Endogeneity Of Money Supply: Panel Evidence”, Procedia Economics And Finance, 7, 48-54.
  • Nell, K. S. (2000), “The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature Of South Africa’s Money Supply Under Direct And Indirect Monetary Control Measures”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(2), 313-329.
  • Nesanır, Ö. (2011), “Türkiye'de Para Arzı-Banka Kredileri İlişkisi: Var Analizi (1986-2010)”, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 115-133.
  • Panagopoulos, Y. ve Spiliotis, A. (2006), “Testing Money Supply Endogeneity: The Case of Greece (1975-1998)”, European Research Studies Journal, 10(1-2), 85-102.
  • Parguez, A. (1996), Beyond Scarcity: A Reappraisal of The Theory of The Monetary Circuit. In Money in motion (pp. 155-199), Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. J., (2001), “ Bounds Testing Approaches To The Analysis Of Level Relationships” Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C.B. ve Perron, P. (1988), “Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 335-346.
  • Pollin, R. (1991), “Two Theories Of Money Supply Endogeneity: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 13(3), 366-396.
  • Rochon, L. P. (1997), “ Keynes's Finance Motive: A Re-Assessment. Credit, Liquidity Preference And The Rate of Interest”, Review of Political Economy, 9(3), 277-293.
  • Savaş, V. F. (2007), İktisatın Tarihi, 5. Baskı, Ankara: Siyasal Yayınevi.
  • Shanmugam, B., Nair, M. ve Li, O. W.(2003), “The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia (1985-2000)”, Journal Of Post Keynesian Economics, 25(4), 599-611.
  • Taş, B. K. O. ve Togay, S. (2012), “A Direct Test Of The Endogeneity Of Money: Implications For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries”, Economic Modelling, 29(3), 577-585.
  • Tooke, T. (1844), “An Inquiry Into The Currency Principle; The Connection of The Currency With Prices, And The Expediency Of A Separation Of Issue From Banking. Longmans & Company.
  • Vera, A. P. (2001), “The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Some Evidence From Spain (1987–1998)”, Journal Of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(3), 509-526.
  • Vymyatnina, Y. (2006), “How Much Control Does Bank Of Russia Have Over Money Supply?”, Research İn International Business And Finance, 20(2), 131-144.
  • White, L. H. (1984), “Free Banking in Britain: Theory, Experience, And Debate,1800–1845”. http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/ files/upldbook115pdf.pdf (Erişim, 20.05.2018)
  • Wray, R. L. (1990), Money And Credit in Capitalist Economies, England: Edward Elgar Publishing Company.
  • İnternet Kaynakları:
  • Işık, S. (2000), Para Arzının Endojenliği Tartışması: Türkiye Örneği, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, (Özet), Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ankara, https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezSorguSonucYeni.jsp (29.05.2018).
  • Luo, P. (2013). Money Supply Behavior in ‘BRICS’Economies:-A Time Series Analysis on Money Supply Endogeneity and Exogeneity. http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:689804/FULLTEXT02. (01.06.2018).
  • The Bullionist Contoversy, http://www.hetwebsite.net/het/schools/bullion. html (01.05.2018).

THE ENDOGENTY ANALYSIS OF MONEY SUPPLY THE CASE OF TURKEY(2006-2017)

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 25, 136 - 152, 06.01.2019

Öz

The Endogenty Analysıs Of Money Supply The Case Of Turkey(2006-2017)named
study is an emperical study researched by the author. The aim of this study is
to determine whether 2006Q1-2017Q4 period the endogeneity of money supply in
Turkey. Whether the money supply is endogenous or not is determined by the
causality analysis in the economic literature. In this study, M1, M2 and M3
Money Supply, Total Credit Volum, Nominal Gross Domestic Product and Consumer
Price Indices were used as variables to perform causality analyzes. Firstly,
stationary states of variables were determined by Augment Dickey Füller and
Phillips-Perron unit root tests. According to the unit root test results,
variables were found to be stable at different levels. The Toda-Yamamoto
causality test was performed with stationary series at different levels.
According to causality test results obtained from the causality tests analysis
the money supply was not determine endegenous in the analysis period in Turkey.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad, N. ve Ahmed, F. (2006), “The Long-Run And Short-Run Endogeneity Of Money Supply İn Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation”, SBP Research Bulletin, 2(1), 267-278.
  • Almutair, S. (2015), “Dynamics Of The Relationship Between Bank Loans And Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 5.
  • Badarudin, Z. E., Ariff, M. ve Khalid, A. M. (2011), “Money Supply Endogeneity And Bank Stock Returns”, Applied Financial Economics, 21(14), 1035-1048.
  • Badarudin, Z. E., Khalid, A. M. ve Ariff, M. (2012), “Exogenous Or Endogenous Money Supply: Evidence From Australia”, The Singapore Economic Review, 57(04), 1250025.Choi, W. G. (2000), “Endogenous Money Supply And Money Demand”, IMF Working Paper, WP/00/188.
  • Cin, M. F. (2012), Post-Keynezyen İktisat. Ankara, Efil YayıneviCottrell, A. (1986), “The Endogeneıty of Money And Money‐Income Causalıty”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 33(1), 2-27.
  • Çavuşoğlu, A. T. (2003), “ The Endogenous Money Growth: An Outcome Of High Budget Deficits in Turkey”, HÜ İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 21(1), 111-127.
  • Çil Yavuz, Nilgün (2015), Finansal Ekonometri, 2. Baskı, İstanbul: Der Yayınevi.
  • Davidson, Paul (1978), Money And The Real World, London: Macmillan Press, 2. Baskı Springer.Deravi, M. K. (1987), “Endogeneity Of The Money Supply: The Monetarists Proposition Revisited”, Atlantic Economic Journal, 15(3), 79-79.
  • Deravi, M. K. ve Hegji, C. E. (1990), “Monetary Regimes And Money Supply Endogeneity”, Applied Economics, 22(10), 1355-1364.
  • Elhendawy, E. O. (2016), “Money Supply - Exogenous or Endogenous? An Empirical Evidence From Egypt”, International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, UK, Vol. IV, Issue 2.
  • Enders, W. (2015), Applied Econometric Time Series, 4. Edition,
  • Alabama, USA: John Wiley and Sons
  • Erataş, F., Nur, H. B. ve Çınar, S. (2015), “Para Arzının Post Keynesyen Yorumu: Gelişmiş Ülkeler Örneği”, Akademik Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, Yıl, 3, 398-409.Granger, C. W. J. (1988), “Causality, Cointegration, and Control ”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 551-559.
  • Greenidge, K.; Craıgwell, R. ve Downes, D. (2001), “Can Money Endogeneity Be Generalized? Empirical Evidence From Caribbean Economies”, International Advances in Economic Research, 7(2), 253-258.
  • Güney, İ. E. ve Çepni, O. (2016), “Endogeneity of Money Supply: Evidence From Turkey”, Research Notes In Economıcs, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. No: 2016-19, 1-12Hill, R. C., Griffith, W. E. ve Lim, G. C. (2011), Principles of Econometrics. USA, Wiley.4th.edition.
  • Holtemöller, O. (2003), “Money Stock, Monetary Base and Bank Behavior in Germany/Geldmenge, Geldbasis und Bankenverhalten in Deutschland”, Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 223(3), 257-278.
  • Howells, P. ve Hussein, K. (1998), “The Endogeneity Of Money: Evidence From The G7”, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 45(3), 329-340.
  • Işık, S. ve Kahyaoğlu, H. (2009), “Para Arzının İçselliği Hipotezi: Türkiye’den Bulgu (1987- 2007)”, Econ Anadolu, 17-19.Işık, S. (2010), Para, Finans Ve Kriz: Post Keynesyen Yaklaşım, 2. Baskı, Ankara: Palme Yayıncılık
  • Kaldor, N. (1985), The Scourge of Monetarism, Oxford; New York: Oxford University Press.
  • Köksel, B. (2016), “Türkiye Ekonomisinde Para Arzının İçselliği: 2006-2014 Dönemi Üzerine Bir Uygulama”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 30 2016 Sayı: 2Lavoie, M. (1984), “The Endogenous Flow of Credit And The Post Keynesian Theory of Money”, Journal of Economic Issues, 18(3), 771-797.
  • Levrero, E. S. ve Deleidi, M. (2017), “The Money Creation Process: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis For The US, MPRA Paper No. 81970, 1-30.
  • Myatt, A. (1986), “Money Supply Endogeneity: An Empirical Test for the United States, 1954-84, Journal of Economic Issues, 20:1, 133-144.
  • Moore, B. J. (1986), “How Credit Drives The Money Supply: The Significance of Institutional Developments”, Journal of Economic Issues, 20(2), 443-452.
  • Moore, B. J. (1988), “The Endogenous Money Supply”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 10(3), 372-385.
  • Moore, B. J. (1989), “The Endogeneity Of Credit Money”, Review of Political Economy, 1(1), 65-93.
  • Nayan, S., Kadir, N., Yusof, A. H. ve Ali, N. A. M. (2016) “Money Supply Endogeneity: Evidence From The Dynamic Panel Data”, In Proceedings of The ASEAN Entrepreneurship Conference 2014, Springer, Singapore, pp. 233-242.
  • Nayan, S., Kadir, N., Abdullah, M. S. ve Ahmad, M. (2013), “Post Keynesian Endogeneity Of Money Supply: Panel Evidence”, Procedia Economics And Finance, 7, 48-54.
  • Nell, K. S. (2000), “The Endogenous/Exogenous Nature Of South Africa’s Money Supply Under Direct And Indirect Monetary Control Measures”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(2), 313-329.
  • Nesanır, Ö. (2011), “Türkiye'de Para Arzı-Banka Kredileri İlişkisi: Var Analizi (1986-2010)”, Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 115-133.
  • Panagopoulos, Y. ve Spiliotis, A. (2006), “Testing Money Supply Endogeneity: The Case of Greece (1975-1998)”, European Research Studies Journal, 10(1-2), 85-102.
  • Parguez, A. (1996), Beyond Scarcity: A Reappraisal of The Theory of The Monetary Circuit. In Money in motion (pp. 155-199), Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., ve Smith, R. J., (2001), “ Bounds Testing Approaches To The Analysis Of Level Relationships” Journal Of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Phillips, P. C.B. ve Perron, P. (1988), “Testing For A Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, 335-346.
  • Pollin, R. (1991), “Two Theories Of Money Supply Endogeneity: Some Empirical Evidence”, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 13(3), 366-396.
  • Rochon, L. P. (1997), “ Keynes's Finance Motive: A Re-Assessment. Credit, Liquidity Preference And The Rate of Interest”, Review of Political Economy, 9(3), 277-293.
  • Savaş, V. F. (2007), İktisatın Tarihi, 5. Baskı, Ankara: Siyasal Yayınevi.
  • Shanmugam, B., Nair, M. ve Li, O. W.(2003), “The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Empirical Evidence From Malaysia (1985-2000)”, Journal Of Post Keynesian Economics, 25(4), 599-611.
  • Taş, B. K. O. ve Togay, S. (2012), “A Direct Test Of The Endogeneity Of Money: Implications For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries”, Economic Modelling, 29(3), 577-585.
  • Tooke, T. (1844), “An Inquiry Into The Currency Principle; The Connection of The Currency With Prices, And The Expediency Of A Separation Of Issue From Banking. Longmans & Company.
  • Vera, A. P. (2001), “The Endogenous Money Hypothesis: Some Evidence From Spain (1987–1998)”, Journal Of Post Keynesian Economics, 23(3), 509-526.
  • Vymyatnina, Y. (2006), “How Much Control Does Bank Of Russia Have Over Money Supply?”, Research İn International Business And Finance, 20(2), 131-144.
  • White, L. H. (1984), “Free Banking in Britain: Theory, Experience, And Debate,1800–1845”. http://www.iea.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/ files/upldbook115pdf.pdf (Erişim, 20.05.2018)
  • Wray, R. L. (1990), Money And Credit in Capitalist Economies, England: Edward Elgar Publishing Company.
  • İnternet Kaynakları:
  • Işık, S. (2000), Para Arzının Endojenliği Tartışması: Türkiye Örneği, Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, (Özet), Hacettepe Üniversitesi, Ankara, https://tez.yok.gov.tr/UlusalTezMerkezi/tezSorguSonucYeni.jsp (29.05.2018).
  • Luo, P. (2013). Money Supply Behavior in ‘BRICS’Economies:-A Time Series Analysis on Money Supply Endogeneity and Exogeneity. http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:689804/FULLTEXT02. (01.06.2018).
  • The Bullionist Contoversy, http://www.hetwebsite.net/het/schools/bullion. html (01.05.2018).
Toplam 47 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

İsmail Hakkı Kofoğlu 0000-0002-1548-017X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 6 Ocak 2019
Gönderilme Tarihi 22 Haziran 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 9 Sayı: 25

Kaynak Göster

APA Kofoğlu, İ. H. (2019). PARA ARZI İÇSELLİK ANALİZİ TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (2006-2017). Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(25), 136-152.