Bitcoin Enerji Tüketimi Özelinde Bitcoin Öncü Göstergeleri ve Hisse Senedi Piyasaları Ortak Hareket Ediyor Mu? Bitcoin Üreticisi Ülkelerden Kanıtlar

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 1323 - 1342, 17.10.2022

Müge Sağlam Bezgin Selim Güngör

Öz

Bu çalışmada Bitcoin enerji tüketimi, Bitcoin fiyat ve Bitcoin hacim değişkenleri arasındaki ilişkinin incelenmesi ve öncü Bitcoin göstergeleriyle en çok Bitcoin üretimi yapan 5 ülkenin hisse senedi piyasalarının ortak hareket edip etmediklerinin araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada Bitcoin enerji, Bitcoin fiyat, Bitcoin hacim, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Çin, Kazakistan, Rusya ve Kanada endeksleri 2011-2022 aylık verileri dikkate alınmıştır. Çalışmada Diebold ve Yılmaz (2012) yayılım endeksi ve zamanla değişen parametreli VAR (TVPVAR) yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Diebold ve Yılmaz (2012) yayılım endeksi yöntemi sonucunda Bitcoin enerji değişkeninin Bitcoin fiyatına yayılım etkisinin %3.5 olduğu görülmüştür. Bitcoin öncü göstergelerinden incelenen tüm hisse senedi endekslerine yayılım olduğu görülürken en yüksek yayılımın ise Bitcoin fiyatından SP500 endeksine doğru olduğu görülmüştür. Diebold ve Yılmaz (2012) net yayılım endeksi %4.54 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bununla birlikte kurulan TVPVAR modelinde değişkenlerin 4, 8 ve 12 aylık dönemlerdeki etki tepki fonksiyonları incelenmiştir. TVPVAR modeli etki tepki fonksiyonlarında Bitcoin enerji fiyatlarında 4, 8 ve 12 aylık dönemlerdeki şokların Bitcoin fiyatına benzer şiddetle yayıldığı gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda Bitcoin enerjide yaşanan şokların tüm dönemlerde, fiyat ve hacimde yaşanan şokların ise kısa dönemlerde SP500, Shangai, Kase ve RTSI endekslerinde benzer şiddette yayıldığı gözlemlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin Enerji Tüketimi, Financial Yayılma, Finansal Bağlantılılık, Finansal Zaman Serisi, Analizi, TVP-VAR Modeli.

Do The Stock Markets and The Leading Indicators of Bitcoin Act Together in The Special of Bitcoin Energy Consumption? The Evidence from Producing Countries of Bitcoin

Öz

In this study, it was aimed to examine that the relationship between Bitcoin price, Bitcoin volume and bitcoin energy consumption, and to research leading indicators of Bitcoin and whether the stock markets of the 5 countries that produce the most Bitcoin act together. In this context, 2011-2022 monthly data of Bitcoin energy, Bitcoin price, Bitcoin volume, USA, China, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Canada indexes was regarded in the study. Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index and time varying parameter VAR (TVPVAR) methodologies were used in the study. In the result of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover methodology was observed that the spillover effect of the Bitcoin energy variable on the Bitcoin price is 3.5%. While was observed from leading indicators of Bitcoin to all series examined be spillover, the most spillover was observed that be from Bitcoin price to SP500 index. Net spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) was calculated that is 4.54%. In addition to this, in the TVPVAR established model was examined the action and the reaction functions in 4, 8 and 12 months periods. In the action-reaction functions of the TVPVAR model, it was observed that the shocks at the 4, 8 and 12-month periods in Bitcoin energy prices spread with a similar intensity to the Bitcoin price. In the result of the study was observed that Bitcoin energy shocks spread to SP500, Shanghai, Kase and RTSI indexes in all periods, the shocks of the price and the volume shocks spread to these indexes in short periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bitcoin Energy Consumption, Financial Spillover, Financial Connectedness, Time Series Analysis, TVP-VAR Model.

Kaynakça

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