Analysis of Russian Hybrid Warfare Capacity in Crimean and Donbas Crises

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 37, 203 - 246, 30.03.2021

Gökhan Cin Hasan Hüseyin Tekin

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.905960

Cited By: 4

Öz

This study analyses the Eastern Ukraine and the Crimean crises that resulted with de facto boundaries of Ukraine in 2014-2015, from the perspective of Hybrid warfare that implemented by the Russian Federation (Russia). In order to understand the historical aspect of the cases, the causes and historical roots of the difference between Western and Eastern Ukraine has been emphasized by referring the identity of Ukraine. In order to prevent a possible confusion, all the other related concepts which share the method base with hybrid warfare concept, has also been explained. The causes and conditions that generated the hybrid warfare capability which assumed to be possessed by Russia, who is the executor of the Crimea and Donbas cases, have explored. With that aim, the security structure and the security concept which evolved to hybrid warfare capability of the Russia who inherited an obsolete and bulky armed forces from USSR, has discussed in the progress. This study aims to define the Russian interpretation of hybrid warfare in Crimean and Donbas Crises and explore the way of implementation in the Ukrainian battlefield within the context of historical and conceptual aspect as a case study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hybrid Warfare, Asymmetric Warfare, Donbas, Crimea, Ukraine

Rusya’nın Hibrit Savaş Kapasitesinin Kırım ve Donbas Vakaları Üzerinden Analizi

Öz

Çalışma, hibrit savaş olgusunu, Rusya Federasyonu’nun (Bundan böyle bu makalede Rusya Federasyonu’ndan Rusya olarak bahsedilecektir), 2014-2015 yıllarında Doğu Ukrayna (Donbas) ve Kırım üzerinde gerçekleştirdiği harekât üzerinden analiz etmektedir. Seçilen coğrafi bölgenin ve vakaların tarihsel boyutunun anlaşılabilmesi için Ukrayna kimliğine değinilerek, Ukrayna’nın Doğusu ile Batısı arasındaki farklılıkların sebepleri ve tarihsel kökleri vurgulanmıştır. Literatürde birçok yazarın tanımladığı Hibrit savaş kavramının ne olduğu, tarihsel süreç içerisinde bugün nasıl algılandığı açıklanmaya çalışılmış, bu bağlamda kavram karmaşasının önüne geçebilmek için yöntem bakımından hibrit savaş ile ilintili diğer savaş kavramlarına da yer verilmiştir. Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birliği’nden (SSCB) köhne ve hantal bir miras devralan Rusya’nın, yakın coğrafyasında gerçekleşen egemenlik krizlerini tecrübe ederek şekillendirdiği güvenlik mekanizması ile hibrit savaş kabiliyetine evrilen güvenlik konsepti bir süreç olarak ele alınmıştır. 2014-2015 Donbas ve Kırım olaylarını tarihsel ve kavramsal bir derinlikte vaka incelemesi olarak analiz eden bu çalışmanın amacı, Rusya’nın hibrit savaşı nasıl yorumladığını ve “özgün” Ukrayna harekât sahasında nasıl hayata geçirdiğini açıklamaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hibrit Savaş, Asimetrik Savaş, Donbas, Kırım, Ukrayna

Kaynakça

• Bigo, D. (2000). When Two Become One: Internal and External Securitisations in Europe. In M. Kelstrup, & M. Williams (Eds.), International Relations Theory and The Politics of European Integration. Power, Security and Community (pp. 171 - 204). Routledge
• Ferril, A. (1985). The Origins of Warfrom the stone age to alexander the great. London: Thames and Hudson Ltd.
• Gayday, A. (2011). Reform of the Russian Army. In M. Barabanov, Russia’s New Army (pp. 10-12). Moscow.
• Hoffman, F. G. (2007). Conflict in the 21 Century: The Rise of Hybrid Wars. Arlington, Virginia: Potomac Institute for Policy Studies.
• Kara Kuvvetleri Komutanlığı, TSK Hibrit Harekat Konsepti, Kara Kuvvetleri Basımevi Müdürlüğü, Ankara 2017.
• Kelkitli, F.A.(2014). Kırım: Rusya için Vazgeçilmez Yarımada, Hasret ÇOMAK, Caner SANCAKTAR ve Zafer YILDIRIM (ed.), Uluslararası Politikada Ukrayna Krizi, 289-309, Beta
• Rácz, A. (2016). Russia’s Hybrid War in Ukraine. Helsinki: The Finnish Institute of International Affairs .
• Treverton, G. (2018). Addressing Hybrid Threats. Swedish Defence University.
• U. S. Command, (2015). “Little Green Men”: A Primer on Modern Russian Unconventional Warfare, Ukraine 2013–2014. North Carolina: The United States Army Special Operations Command Fort Bragg.
• U. S. Command, (2010). IRREGULAR WARFARE: COUNTERING IRREGULAR THREATS . JOINT OPERATING CONCEPT. ABD.
• The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. (2010, 2 5). Moskova: Russian Federation presidential edict.
• Bartles, C., & McDermott, R. N. (2014). “Russia’s Military Operation in Crimea”. Problems of Post-Communism, pp. 46-63.
• Bebler, A. (2015). The Russıan-Ukraınıan Conflıct Over Crımea. Teorıja In Praksa, pp. 196-219.
• Boot, M. (2013). The Evolution of Irregular War: Insurgents and Guerrillas From Akkadia to Afghanistan. Foreign Affairs, pp. 100-114.
• Bunker, R. J. (1999). Unconventional warfare philosophers. Small Wars & Insurgencies, pp. 136-149.
• Calhoun, Mark T (2011). CLAUSEWITZ AND JOMINI Contrasting Intellectual Frameworks in Military Theory, Army History, 22-37
• Cioffi-Revilla, C. (1996). Origins and Evolution of War and Politics. International Studies Quarterly, pp. 1-22.
• Complex Irregular Warfare: The Face of Contemporary Conflict, The Military Balance. (2011, 04 12). The Military Balance.
• Cullen, P., & Kjennerud, E. (2017). Understanding Hybrid Warfare, . A Multinational Capability Development Campaign Project, 7-8.
• Gerasimov, V. (2016). The Value of Science Is in the Foresight New Challenges Demand Rethinking the Forms and Methods of Carrying out Combat Operations . Military Review, 23-29.
• Gregory, P. R. (2014, 05 05). Putin's 'Human Rights Council' Accidentally Posts Real Crimean Election Results. Retrieved 06 29, 2018, from Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/ sites/paulroderickgregory/2014/05/05/putins-human-rights-council-accidentally-posts-real-crimean-election-results-only-1
• Herspring, D. (2008). Russian Military Reform and Anatoly Serdyukov. Problems of Post-Communism, pp. 20-32.
• Herspring, D. (2013). Anatoly Serdyukov and the Russian Military. Problems of Post-Communism, pp. 42-58.
• Hoffman, F. G. (2009). Hybrid Warfare and Challenges. JFQ, pp. 34-39.
• Hoffman, F. G. (2009). Hybrid Warfare and Challenges. Joint Force Quarterly, 34-39.
• Hud, Bohdan (2016). Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church in Galicia (Halychyna): The Creation, The Ban, And The Resurrection. Generall Overview, Proceedings of History Faculty of Lviv University, 273-293
• IPHR. (2016). Internatıonal Crımes In Crımea: An Assessment Of Two And A Half Years Of Russıan Occupatıon. Brüksel: International Partnership for Human Rights.
• Janmaat, Jan Germen (2005). Ethnic and Civic Conceptions of the Nation in Ukraine's History Textbooks, European Education, 20-37
• Janos, A. C. (1963). Unconventional Warfare: Framework and Analysis. World Politics, Vol. 15, pp. 636-646.
• Keane, C., & Diesen, G. (2017). The Two-tiered Division of Ukraine: Historical Narratives in Nation-building and Region-building. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 315.
• Kober, Avi (2005). Does the Iraq war reflect a phase change in warfare?, Defense & Security Analysis, 123
• Kofman, M. (2017). Lessons from Russia’s Operations. santa monica: RAND Corporation.
• Kofman, M., & Rojansky, M. (2015). “A Closer look at Russia’s “Hybrid War””. The Kennan Institute. The Kennan Institute.
• Kuzio, Taras (2001). Historiography and National Identity among the Eastern Slavs: Towards a New Framework, National Identities, s. 109-132.
• Kuzio, Taras (2005). Nation Building, History Writing and Competition Over The Legacy of Kyiv Rus in Ukraine, Nationalities Papers, 29-58
• Lele, a. (2014). Asymmetric Warfare: A state vs non-state conflict. oasis, 97-111.
• Makarychev, A., & Sergunin, A. (2013). Russian military reform: institutional, political and security implications. Defense & Security Analysis, pp. 356-364.
• Mattis, J. N., & Hoffman, F. (2005, vol.132). Future Warfare: The Rise of Hybrid Wars. Proceedings, 1-2.
• Matveeva, A. (2016). No Moscow stooges: identity polarization and guerrilla movements in Donbass. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, pp. 25-50.
• Monaghan, A. (2015). Putin’s Way of War: The War’ in Russia’s Hybrid Warfare. Parameters, pp. 65-74.
• Pomerantsev , P., & Weiss, M. (2014). The Menace of Unreality: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture and Money. New York: The Institute of Modern Russia.
• Robinson, P. (2016). Russia's role in the war in Donbass and the threat to European security. European Politics and Society, 506-521.
• Roslycky, L. L. (2011). Russia’s smart power in Crimea: sowing the seeds of trust. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, pp. 299-316.
• Salmoni, B. (2007). The Fallacy of ‘Irregular’ Warfare. The RUSI Journal.
• Schroefl, J., & Kaufman, S. (2014). Hybrid Actors, Tactical Variety: Rethinking Asymmetric and Hybrid War. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, pp. 862-880.
• Shulman, S. (1999). The cultural foundations of Ukrainian national identity. Ethnic and Racial Studies, 1011-1036.
• Spaulding, H. (2015). Putin’s Next Objectives in The Ukraıne Crisis. Backgrounder, 1-10.
• Anonym. (2014, 02 22). Ukrainian MPs vote to oust President Yanukovych. Retrieved 09 26, 2018, from BBC news: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26304842
• Britannica, T. E. (2016, 02 22). Kievan Rus. Retrieved 11 14, 2018, from Encyclopædia Britannica: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Kievan-Rus
• Britannica, Donets Basin. Retrieved 01 23, 2021, from Encyclopædia Britannica: https://www.britannica.com/place/Donets-Basin
• В захваченное здание парламента Крыма внесли автоматы Калашникова, снайперские винтовки и гранатометы - очевидец. (2014, 02 27). Retrieved 07 01, 2018, from Korrespondent: https://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3312031-v-zakhvachennoe-zdanye-parlamenta-kryma-vnes
• Russia Recognizes Abkhazia, South Ossetia. (2008, 08 26). Retrieved 07 20, 2018, from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty): https://www.rferl.org/a/Russia_ Recognizes_Abkhazia_South_Ossetia/1193932.html
• Russian FSB colonel admits Crimean MPs forced to vote for referendum . (2015, 01 27). Retrieved 07 29, 2018, from EMPR.media : https://empr.media/news/russian-fsb-colonel-admits-crimean-mps-forced-to-vote-for-referendum/
• Ukrayna Devlet İstatistik Kurumu Resmî Sayfası, Retrieved 01 23, 2021, “National composition of population”, http://2001.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/results/general/nationality/
• Ukraine, S. (n.d.). Chronology of the Hetmanate: 1552-1795. Retrieved 11 14, 2018, from Sovereign Ukraine: https://sovereignukraine.net/all/history/chronology-of-ukraine-1552-1795/
• T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı Resmî İnternet Sayfası, Ukrayna’da son durum ve ikili ilişkiler, Retrieved 01 23, 2021, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/ukrayna_da-son-durum-ve-ikili-iliskiler.tr.mfa
• Tensions flare over Russia-Ukraine gas deal. (2015, 09 14). Retrieved 10 02, 2018, from Politico: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-gazprom-ukraine-trilateral-sefcovic/
• Vladimir Putin answered journalists’ questions on the situation in Ukraine. (2014, 03 04). Retrieved 09 28, 2018, from President of Russia: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/ president/news/20366
• Vladimir Putin submitted appeal to the Federation Council. (2014, 03 01). Retrieved 07 01, 2018, from President of Russia: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20353
• www.worldhistory.biz, E. o. (2015, 08 11). Galicia-Volhynia. Retrieved 11 14, 2018, from WorldHistory: https://www.worldhistory.biz/contemporary-history/76035-galicia-volhynia.html