Evaluation of 21st Century Threats in Maritime Security by AHP Method: The Case of Türkiye

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 44, 101 - 137, 27.04.2023

Eda Tutak

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1236313

Cited By: 1

Öz

In the global political and economic agenda cycle of the 21st century, interest in the seas has spread rapidly. The security of maritime areas, which are central in issues such as transportation, global trade, natural resource reserves, and transfer, has also become a part of national and international security strategies, especially since the beginning of the 2000s. However, different perspectives on the concept of “maritime security” lead to the lack of a single definition of the concept. Therefore, the factors threatening the security in question should be mentioned differently. The absence of widely agreed upon maritime security threats both complicates global cooperation on maritime security and weakens the fight against these threats. Identifying the most serious and common threats to maritime security is essential for joint action in the fight against them. This study aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis in defining the concept of maritime security and to identify the most serious threats to maritime security in the 21st century. For this purpose, 21st-century maritime security threats have been determined within the scope of academic studies, strategy papers, military documents, and reports published by states and international organizations. Then, the severity levels of these threats were determined through the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) Method. As a result of the study, the three most important factors threatening maritime security in the 21st century are determined as climate change (with a significance level of 0.3169), marine pollution and environmental problems (with a significance level of 0.2104), and sea boundary disputes between states (with a severity level of 0.1783).

Anahtar Kelimeler

Seas, Maritime Security, Maritime Security Threats, 21st Century, Analytical Hierarchy Process

Deniz Güvenliğinde 21. Yüzyıl Tehditlerinin AHP Yöntemiyle Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

21. yüzyılın küresel siyasi ve ekonomik gündem döngüsünde denizlere yönelik ilgi hızla yaygınlaşmıştır. Ulaşım, küresel ticaret, doğal kaynak rezervleri ve transferi gibi konularda merkezi konumda yer alan deniz alanlarının güvenliği de özellikle 2000’li yılların başından itibaren ulusal ve uluslararası güvenlik stratejilerinin önemli bir parçasını oluşturmaktadır. Ancak “deniz güvenliği” kavramına yönelik farklı bakış açıları, kavramın tek bir tanımının olmamasına dolayısıyla söz konusu güvenliği tehdit eden unsurların da farklı anılmasına yol açmaktadır. Deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden unsurlar üzerinde küresel ölçekte bir uzlaşının sağlanamaması, hem deniz güvenliği konusunda küresel ortaklık zemini oluşmasını engellemekte hem de bu tehditlerle mücadelenin zayıflamasına neden olmaktadır. Deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden en güçlü ortak tehdit unsurlarının belirlenmesi, bu tehditlerle mücadelede ortak hareket edilmesi açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; deniz güvenliği kavramının tanımlanmasında kapsamlı bir analiz gerçekleştirmek ve 21. yüzyılda deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden en güçlü unsurları belirlemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda 21. yüzyıl deniz güvenliği tehditleri; akademik çalışmalar, devletler ve uluslararası örgütler tarafından yayınlanan strateji belgeleri, askerî dokümanlar ve raporlar kapsamında belirlenmiştir. Daha sonra AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) Yöntemi aracılığıyla bu tehditlerin önem dereceleri tespit edilmiştir. Çalışma sonucunda 21. yüzyılda deniz güvenliğini tehdit eden en önemli ilk üç unsur sırasıyla; 0,3169 önem derecesiyle ile İklim Değişikliği, 0,2104 önem derecesiyle Deniz Kirliliği ve Çevre Sorunları ve 0,1783 önem derecesiyle Devletlerarasındaki Deniz Sınırı Anlaşmazlıkları olarak tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Denizler, Deniz Güvenliği, Deniz Güvenliği Tehditleri, 21. Yüzyıl, Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci

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