The Impact of Public Sector Social Expenditures and Capital Formation on Economic Growth in Türkiye: A Fourier-Augmented ARDL Approach

Öz

Understanding the determinants of economic growth is a fundamental issue in macroeconomic policy discussions. This study examines the effects of public sector social expenditures and capital formation on economic growth in the Turkish economy. Annual data from 1995-2024 were used, and the Fourier-Augmented ARDL approach was employed to account for structural changes occurring during the period under review. The findings indicate that capital formation has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth, while the effect of public sector social expenditures is negative and statistically significant. Short-run results show that the contemporaneous and one-period lagged effects of capital formation are positive, while the contemporaneous effect of public sector social expenditures is negative. These findings highlight the importance of policies supporting capital formation for growth in Türkiye and suggest a need to re-evaluate the composition and efficiency of social expenditures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth
• Public Sector Social Expenditures
• Capital Formation
• FourierAugmented ARDL
• Türkiye

Türkiye’de Kamu Kesimi Sosyal Harcamaları ve Sermaye Oluşumunun Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Fourier Genişletilmiş ARDL Yaklaşımı

Öz

Ekonomik büyümenin belirleyicilerinin anlaşılması, makroekonomik politika tartışmalarının temel konularından birini oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde kamu kesimi sosyal harcamaları ile sermaye oluşumunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Çalışmada 1995–2024 dönemine ait yıllık veriler kullanılmış ve incelenen dönemde ortaya çıkan yapısal değişimleri dikkate almak amacıyla Fourier Genişletilmiş ARDL yaklaşımından yararlanılmıştır. Bulgulara göre sermaye oluşumu ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı biçimde etkilerken, kamu kesimi sosyal harcamalarının etkisi negatif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Kısa dönem sonuçları, sermaye oluşumunun hem cari dönem hem de bir dönem gecikmeli etkisinin pozitif olduğunu, kamu kesimi sosyal harcamalarının cari dönem etkisinin ise negatif gerçekleştiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye’de sermaye oluşumunu destekleyen politikaların büyüme açısından önemini ortaya koyarken, sosyal harcamaların bileşimi ve kullanım etkinliğinin yeniden değerlendirilmesi gerektiğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Kamu Kesimi Sosyal Harcamaları
• Sermaye Oluşumu
• Fourier Genişletilmiş ARDL
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

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