TÜRKİYE’DE UZUN DÖNEM EKONOMİK BÜYÜMENİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİNİN ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS VE CCR YÖNTEMLERİYLE TAHMİNİ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 36 Sayı: 4, 39 - 57, 30.12.2018

Levent Erdoğan , Ahmet Tiryaki , Reşat Ceylan

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.336371

Cited By: 17

Öz

Bu
çalışmanın iki amacı vardır; birincisi, Genişletilmiş Neo-Klasik Büyüme
Modeline dayanan bütüncül bir üretim fonksiyonunu temel alarak 1965-2015
yılları arasında ARDL yaklaşımı ile Türkiye’de uzun dönem ekonomik büyümenin
temel belirleyicilerini araştırmaktır. İkincisi ise ARDL yöntemi ile elde
edilen sonuçları yeni eş-bütünleşme metotlarından olan FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR
yöntemlerinden yararlanarak doğrulamak ve elde edilen sonuçların güvenilirliğini
artırmaktır. Ampirik bulgular Türkiye’de uzun dönem ekonomik büyümenin temel
belirleyicilerinin sermaye stokundaki ve enerji tüketimindeki artışların
olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca sonuçlar, literatürün aksine, beşeri
sermayenin ekonomik büyümeye katkısının olmadığını veya varsa zayıf bir
etkisinin olduğunu ifade etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR

ESTIMATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF LONG RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY BY USING THE ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, AND CCR APPROACHES

Öz

The
aim of this study is twofold; the first one is, by using “Augmented
Neo-classical Growth Model” as a base, to investigate the determinants of the
long-run economic growth of Turkey benefiting from the ARDL approach for the
period of 1965 to 2015, using annual data. The second aim is to confirm and
emphasize the results of ARDL approach by using the new co-integration methods
of FMOLS, DOLS and CCR. Empirical results show that the determinants of long
run economic growth are the growth of physical capital stock and the growth of
energy use. However, empirical results support that, different from the
literature, the contribution of human capital to economic growth in Turkey is
none or weakly statistically significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, CCR, Turkey

Kaynakça

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