Türkiye’de algılanan tehditler ve siyasal güven: Kentleşme düzeyi ve sosyodemografik değişkenler bağlamında ampirik bir analiz

Öz

Bu araştırmada, Türkiye’de ekonomik, sosyopolitik, toplumsal güvenlik ve risk tehditlerine ilişkin algıların siyasal güvenle ilişkisi incelenmektedir. Çalışmada 2024 yılı Türkiye Genel Sosyal Araştırması (TGSS) verileri çoklu regresyon ile analiz edilmiştir. 2615 katılımcıdan elde edilen verilerin analizi sonucunda bulguların bir bütün olarak anlamlı olduğu görülmüş ve modelin siyasal güvendeki varyansın yaklaşık %15’ini açıkladığı tespit edilmiştir. Regresyon modelinde bağımsız değişken olarak ele alınan sosyopolitik tehdit algısı ve ekonomik tehdit algısı siyasal güvenle negatif ilişki gösterirken toplumsal güvenlik ve risk tehdit algısı pozitif ilişki göstermiştir. Modelde kontrol değişkenleri olarak yer alan eğitim düzeyi, yaş ve kentleşme durumu siyasal güvenle negatif ilişki göstermiştir. Bulgular, tehdit algılarının siyasal güvenle ilişkisinin tehdidin türüne göre farklılaştığını ortaya koymaktadır. Sosyopolitik ve ekonomik tehditler kurumsal performans ve adalet değerlendirmeleri üzerinden güveni aşındırırken güvenlik odaklı tehditler korunma ve düzen ihtiyacı üzerinden siyasal güvenle pozitif ilişki gösterdiği saptanmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Sosyodemografik değişkenler
• Siyasal güven
• tehdit algısı
• Türkiye
• kentleşme düzeyi

Perceived threats and political trust in Türkiye: An empirical analysis in the context of urbanisation levels and sociodemographic variables

Öz

This study examines the relationship between perceptions of economic, sociopolitical, social security, and risk threats and political trust in Türkiye. The study analyzes data from the 2024 Türkiye General Social Survey (TGSS) using multiple regression analysis. Analysis of data from 2615 participants revealed significant overall results, with the model explaining approximately 15% of the variance in political trust. In the regression model, sociopolitical threat perception and economic threat perception showed a negative relationship with political trust, while social security and risk threat perception showed a positive relationship. Education level, age, and urbanization status, included as control variables, also showed a negative relationship with political trust. The findings indicate that the relationship between threat perceptions and political trust differs depending on the type of threat. Sociopolitical and economic threats erode trust through assessments of institutional performance and justice, while security-focused threats show a positive relationship with political trust through the need for protection and order. Keywords: Political trust, Threat perception, Türkiye, Urbanization level, Sociodemographic variables

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Political trust
• Perception of threat
• Türkiye
• Level of urbanisation
• Sociodemographic variables

Kaynakça

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