ESTİMATİON OF PRİCE ELASTİCİTY OF INDUSTRİAL AND RESİDENTİAL ELECTRİCİTY DEMAND İN EUROPEAN UNİON COUNTRİES

Öz

This study aims to estimate long and short term price elasticities of demand for electrical energy in industrial and residential sectors by using 2005 - 2015 annual data for 28 Europan Union (EU) countries with panel data analysis. The existence of long-run relationship between variables is investigated by Pedroni and Kao panel cointegration tests and long and short run coefficients are obtained by using the Pooled Mean Group Estimator (PMGE). As a result of the econometric analysis, it is found that there is long term relationship between electricity consumption and electricity price for industrial and residential sector and short term coefficients for both sectors are not statistically significant, however long term price elasticity coefficients are statistically significant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Consumption of Electrical Energy,Pooled Mean Group Estimator,Panel Cointegration Test,Price Elasticity of Demand

AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ ÜLKELERİNDE SANAYİ VE KONUT SEKTÖRÜ ELEKTRİK ENERJİSİ TALEBİNİN FİYAT ESNEKLİĞİ TAHMİNİ

Öz

Bu çalışma 28 Avrupa Birliği (AB) ülkesi için 2005 - 2015 arası yıllık verileri kullanarak, sanayi ve konut sektöründe elektrik enerjisi talebinin uzun ve kısa dönem fiyat esnekliklerini panel veri analiziyle tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkilerin varlığı Pedroni ve Kao panel eşbütünleşme testleriyle araştırılmış ve panel bazında değişkenler arasındaki uzun ve kısa dönemli katsayılara Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi (PMGE) yöntemiyle ulaşılmıştır. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçları panel genelinde değerlendirildiğinde sanayi ve konut sektöründe elektrik enerjisi tüketimi ile fiyatı arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki tespit edilmiş olunup her iki sektör için de kısa dönem katsayıları istatistiki olarak anlamlı değilken uzun dönemli fiyat esnekliği katsayısı istatistiki olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Elektrik Enerjisi Tüketimi,Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup Tahmincisi,Panel Eşbütünleşme Testi,Talebin Fiyat Esnekliği

Kaynakça

1. Abbaszadeh, N., Qavami, M., & Bahmani, A. (2014). “Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand in Iran Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model”. Journal of Accounting and Marketing. Kaynak: https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/price-elasticity-of-electricity-demand-in-iran-based-oncomputable-general-equilibrium-model-2168 9601.1000110.pdf.
2. Akan, Y., & Tak, S. (2003). Türkiye Elektrik Enerjisi Ekonometrik Talep Analizi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, (1-2)17, 21 - 49.
3. Arisoy, I., & Ozturk, I. (2014). Estimating Industrial and Residential Electricity Demand in Turkey: A Time Varying Parameter Aproach. Energy, (3)66, 959-964.
4. Bangake, C., & Eggoh, J. C. (2012). Pooled Mean Group Estimation on International Capital Mobility in African Countries. Research in Economics, (1)66, 7-17.Bayraç, H. N., & Çildir, M. (2017). AB Yenilenebilir Enerji Politikalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, (5)13, 201-212.
5. Bernstein, R., & Madlener, R. (2011). “Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis”. FCN Working Paper Kaynak: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1887044 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1887044.
6. Blázquez, L., Boogen, N., & Filippini, M. (2012). “Residential Electricity Demand for Spain: New Empirical Evidence Using Aggregate Data”. CEPE Working Paper. Kaynak: https://www.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/cepe/cepe dam/documents/research/cepe-wp/CEPE_WP82.pdf.
7. Bose, R. K., & Shukla, M. (1999). Elasticities of Electricity Demand in India. Energy Policy, (3)27, 137-146.
8. British Petroleum. (2017). Statistical Review of World Energy. Erişim adresi: https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf., Erişim Tarihi: 12.04.2018.

9. Burke, P. J., & Abayasekara, A. (2017). “The Price Elasticity Of Electricity Demand in The United States: A Three-Dimensional Analysis”. CAMA Working Paper. Kaynak: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3016911.
10. Dilaver, Z., & Hunt, L. C. (2011). Industrial Electricity Demand For Turkey: A Structural Time Series Analysis. Energy Economics, (3)33, 426-436.
11. EPRS. (2016). Understanding Electricity Markets in The EU. Erişim adresi: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/593519/EPRS_BRI(2016)593519_EN.pdf., Erişim Tarihi: 12.04.2018.
12. Erdem, E., Guloglu, B., & Nazlioglu, S. (2010). The Macroeconomy and Turkish Agricultural Trade Balance With The EU Countries: Panel ARDL Analysis. International Journal of Economic Perspectives, (1)4, 371 – 379.
13. Filippini, M. (1999). Swiss Residential Demand for Electricity. Applied Economics Letters, (8)6, 533-538.
14. Fisher, F. M., & Kaysen, C. (1962). A Study in Econometrics: The Demand for Electricity in the United States. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam.
15. Güler, A., & Özyurt, H. (2011). Merkez Bankası Bağımsızlığı ve Reel Ekonomik Performans: Panel ARDL Analizi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, (2)3, 11 – 20.
16. Halicioglu, F. (2007). Residential Electricity Demand Dynamics İn Turkey. Energy Economics, (2)29, 199-210.
17. Halvorsen, R. (1975). Residential Demand for Electric Energy. The Review of Economics and Statistics, (1)57, 12-18.
18. Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, (6)46, 1251-1271.
19. Houthakker, H. S. (1951). Some Calculations on Electricity Consumption in Great Britain. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), (3)114, 359-371.
20. Iwata, H., Okada, K., & Samreth, S. (2011). A Note on The Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2: A Pooled Mean Group Approach. Applied Energy, (5)88, 1986-1996.
21. Johansen, S. (1995). Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
22. Kamerschen, D. R., & Porter, D. V. (2004). The Demand for Residential, Industrial and Total Electricity, 1973–1998. Energy Economics, (1)26, 87-100.
23. Kao, C. (1999). Spurious Regression and Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, (1)90, 1-44.
24. Kiss, J. T., & Kocsis, I. (2014). Price and Income Elasticity of Electricity Consumption in Hungary. Environmental Engineering and Management Journal, (11)13, 2809-2815.
25. Krishnamurthy, C. K. B., & Kriström, B. (2015). A Cross-Country Analysis of Residential Electricity Demand İn 11 OECD-Countries. Resource and Energy Economics, (1)39, 68-88.
26. Lim, K. M., Lim, S. Y., & Yoo, S. H. (2014). Short-And Long-Run Elasticities of Electricity Demand in The Korean Service Sector. Energy Policy, 67, 517-521.
27. Narayan, P. K., Smyth, R., & Prasad, A. (2007). Electricity Consumption in G7 Countries: A Panel Cointegration Analysis of Residential Demand Elasticities. Energy Policy, (9)35, 4485-4494.
28. Ndambendia, H. & Njoupouognigni, M. (2010). Foreign Aid, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Pooled Mean Group Estimator (PMG). International Journal of Economics and Finance, (3)2, 39-45.
29. Pedroni, P. (2000). Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels. Department of Economics Working Papers. Kaynak: https://ideas.repec.org/p/wil/wileco/2000-03.html.
30. Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with An Application to PPP Hypothesis: New Results. Econometric Theory, (3)20, 597–625.
31. Pesaran, M. H., & Smith, R. (1995). Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, (1)68, 79-113.
32. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association, (446)94, 621-634.
33. Phillips, P. C., & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes. The Review of Economic Studies, (1)57, 99-125.
34. Pindyck, R. S. (1979). Interfuel Substitution And The İndustrial Demand For Energy: An İnternational Comparison. The Review of Economics and Statistics, (2)61, 169-179.
35. Romero-Jordán, D., Peñasco, C., & del Río, P. (2014). Analysing The Determinants of Household Electricity Demand in Spain. An Econometric Study. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, (10)63, 950-961.
36. Samargandi, N., Fidrmuc, J., & Ghosh, S. (2015). Is The Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from A Sample of Middle-Income Countries. World Development, 68, 66-81.
37. Selim, S., Uysal, D., & Eryiğit, P. (2014a). Türkiye’de Sağlık Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, (3)7, 13-24.
38. Selim, S., Purtaş, Y., & Uysal, D. (2014b). G-20 Ülkelerinde Eğitim Harcamalarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi. Optimum Ekonomi ve Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, (2)1, 93 – 102.
39. Silk, J. I., & Joutz, F. L. (1997). Short and Long-Run Elasticities in US Residential Electricity Demand: A Co-Integration Approach. Energy Economics, (4)19, 493-513.
40. Simões, M. C. (2011). Education Composition and Growth: A Pooled Mean Group Analysis of OECD Countries. Panoeconomicus, (4)58, 455-471.
41. Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi-Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Basım Yayım, İstanbul.
42. Yaylalı, M., & Lebe, F. (2013). Konut Sektörünün Elektrik Talebi: Türkiye İçin Talep Tahmini ve Öngörü. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 3, 119-145.