Büyümenin Savunma Esnekliğinin Tahmin Edilmesi: Bölgelerarası Bir Analiz

Öz

Benoit’in (1973, 1978) öncü çalışmalarından itibaren savunma ekonomisi literatürü genellikle savunma harcamaları-büyüme ilişki üzerine yoğunlaşmıştır. Literatürdeki bu çalışmalardan çoğu tek ülkeli analiz yaparken, çok ülkeli analiz yapan panel veri çalışmalar ise genellikle örneklemi gelir seviyesine göre sınıflandırmıştır. Bölgesel ve/veya kıtasal bazda yapılan çalışmaların sayısı ise oldukça sınırlıdır. Bu bilgiler ışığında mevcut çalışmanın amacı, 5 ayrı bölgede savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin tahmin edilmesi ve sonuçların bölgesel olarak kıyaslanmasıdır. Bu amaçla, savunma harcamalarıyla genişletilmiş Feder-Ram modeli kullanılarak 1990-2015 döneminde savunma harcamalarının büyüme üzerindeki etkisi panel zaman serilerine ait heterojen eğim katsayılarını tahmin etmek için geliştirilen ortalama grup (MG) tahmincileri ile analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde büyümenin savunma harcamaları esnekliğinin en fazla olduğu bölgenin Avrupa, en düşük olduğu bölgenin ise Orta Doğu olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Savunma Harcamaları,Ekonomik Büyüme,Panel Veri Analizi

Estimating the Defence Elasticity of Growth: A Cross-Regional Analysis

Öz

Military economics literature has commonly concentrated upon military expenditures-economic growth nexus since the seminal studies by Benoit (1973, 1978). While most of these studies have focused on single-country analysis, multi-country panel data studies have usually divided the sample in terms of income level. The number of the studies, however, at the regional and/or continental basis is very limited. Given this knowledge, the goal of this study is to estimate the impact of military expenditures on economic growth in 5 different regions and to compare the results with respect to regions. To this end, mean group (MG) estimators developed in order to estimate heterogeneous slope coefficients in panel time series have been employed within a Feder-Ram model augmented with military expenditures over the period 1990-2015. Empirical findings both for the short- and long-run reveal that the military expenditure elasticity of growth is the highest in Europe whereas the Middle East has the lowest.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Military Expenditures,Economic Growth,Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

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