ANARŞİ, BELİRSİZLİK VE GÜVENLİK SARMALI: ABD-ÇİN REKABETİNE NEOREALİST BİR BAKIŞ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri-Çin rekabetini neorealist kuramsal çerçeve üzerinden güvenlik ikilemi bağlamında incelemektedir. Savunma amaçlı olarak sunulan kabiliyet artırımı, ileri konuşlanma ve ittifak koordinasyonu gibi adımlar karşıt aktörün tehdit algısını tetikleyerek eylem‑tepki döngüsü, kümülatif silahlanma ve stratejik tutumlarda sertleşme üretmektedir. Bu nedenle rekabetin yapısal bir kalıcılık kazandığını ileri sürmek mümkündür. Anarşik uluslararası düzende niyet belirsizliği ve saldırı-savunma muğlaklığı, ABD ile Çin arasındaki kriz yönetimini zorlaştırarak yanlış algı ve olası gerilimlerin tırmanma riskini artırmaktadır. ABD tarafında mevcut düzenin sürdürülmesi ve müttefik güvenliği söylemi öne çıkmaktadır. Çin tarafında ise “barışçıl yükseliş” ve egemenlik hassasiyetleri, savunmacı adımların karşılıklı olarak kuşatma ya da revizyonist eğilimlerin kanıtı şeklinde yeniden çerçevelenmesine yol açmaktadır. Bu algısal farklılıklar, özellikle Hint‑Pasifik’in jeostratejik özellikleri ve çift amaçlı teknolojilerin yayılmasıyla yoğunlaşan bir güvenlik sarmalı üretmektedir. Sonuç olarak, ABD‑Çin rekabeti geçici politikalardan değil, sistemin yapısal dinamiklerinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu durum, güvene dayanmadan uygulanabilecek pratik risk azaltma adımlarının önemini ortaya koymakta ve güvenlik ikileminin kalıcı niteliğini doğrulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ABD-Çin Rekabeti
• Neorealizm
• Güvenlik İkilemi.

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