REMITTANCES, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, AND THE DOMESTIC DEMAND CHANNEL: THE CASE OF KOSOVO

Öz

This study examines whether workers’ remittances affect non-tradable sector output in Kosovo directly or indirectly through household consumption over the period 2011Q1–2025Q4. A multi-method empirical strategy is employed, combining the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, dynamic and fully modified ordinary least squares estimators (DOLS/FMOLS), Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality tests, and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The findings are consistent with a consumption-mediated indirect channel, while providing only limited support for a direct effect. In the household consumption equation, remittances exhibit a stable, positive, and statistically significant long-run elasticity of approximately 0.58 across alternative estimators. By contrast, when non-tradable output is analyzed directly with respect to remittances, no cointegration relationship is detected, and this result remains valid in the pre-COVID-19 subsample. The Toda-Yamamoto tests provide evidence consistent with causality running from remittances to consumption and from consumption to non-tradable output, however, the presence of substantial feedback effects within the system prevents a strict one-way causal interpretation. The variance decomposition results offer additional suggestive evidence that, over a twelve-quarter horizon, approximately 39 percent of the variance in non-tradable output is explained by remittance and consumption shocks. Overall, the findings do not support a direct Dutch disease interpretation of remittances, but are more consistent with a domestic-demand-mediated transmission mechanism.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Workers’ Remittances
• Household Consumption
• Non-Tradable Sectors

İŞÇİ DÖVİZLERİ, HANEHALKI TÜKETİMİ VE İÇ TALEP KANALI: KOSOVA ÖRNEĞİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, 2011Ç1-2025Ç4 döneminde Kosova’da işçi dövizlerinin (havalelerinin) ticarete konu olmayan (non-tradable) sektör üretimini doğrudan bir kanaldan mı yoksa hanehalkı tüketimi aracılığıyla dolaylı bir kanaldan mı etkilediğini incelemektedir. Gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımını, dinamik ve tam-modifiye edilmiş EKK (DOLS/FMOLS) tahmincilerini, Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testlerini ve öngörü hatası varyans ayrıştırmasını (FEVD) bir araya getiren çok yöntemli bir ampirik strateji kullanılmaktadır. Bulgular, tüketim aracılı dolaylı kanal yorumuyla tutarlıdır, buna karşılık doğrudan etki için yalnızca sınırlı destek bulunmaktadır. Hanehalkı tüketimi denkleminde işçi dövizleri, çeşitli alternatif tahminciler genelinde istikrarlı biçimde yaklaşık 0,58 düzeyinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir uzun dönem esnekliğiyle yer almaktadır. Buna karşılık, ticarete konu olmayan üretim doğrudan işçi dövizleri üzerine analiz edildiğinde herhangi bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi saptanmamakta ve bu sonuç COVID-19 öncesi alt örneklemde de geçerliliğini korumaktadır. Toda-Yamamoto testleri işçi dövizlerinden tüketime ve tüketimden ticarete konu olmayan üretime yönelik nedensellikle tutarlı bulgular sunmakla birlikte, sistemde belirgin geri besleme (çift yönlü) etkileri de mevcuttur ve bu durum kesin tek-yönlü nedensel bir yorumu engellemektedir. Varyans ayrıştırması, on iki çeyreklik ufukta ticarete konu olmayan üretim varyansının yaklaşık yüzde 39’unun işçi dövizleri ve tüketim şoklarınca açıklandığına dair telkin edici (suggestive) ek kanıt sağlamaktadır. Bulgular, işçi dövizlerin doğrudan bir Hollanda hastalığı yorumunu desteklemediğini, bunun yerine iç talep aracılı bir aktarım mekanizmasıyla daha tutarlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İşçi Dövizleri
• Hanehalkı Tüketimi
• Ticarete Konu Olmayan Sektörler

Kaynakça

1. Acosta, P. A., Lartey, E. K. K. & Mandelman, F. S. (2009). “Remittances and the Dutch Disease”. Journal of International Economics, 79(1): 102-116.
2. Adams, R. H. & Cuecuecha, A. (2010). “Remittances, Household Expenditure and Investment in Guatemala”. World Development, 38(11): 1626-1641.
3. Aggarwal, R., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Martínez Pería, M. S. (2011). “Do Remittances Promote Financial Development?”. Journal of Development Economics, 96(2): 255-264.
4. Amuedo-Dorantes, C. & Pozo, S. (2004). “Workers’ Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts”. World Development, 32(8): 1407-1417.
5. Arapi-Gjini, A., Möllers, J. & Herzfeld, T. (2020). “Measuring Dynamic Effects of Remittances on Poverty and Inequality with Evidence from Kosovo”. Eastern European Economics, 58(4): 283-308.
6. Bai, J. & Perron, P. (1998). “Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes”. Econometrica, 66(1): 47-78.
7. Bai, J. & Perron, P. (2003). “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18(1): 1-22.
8. Barajas, A., Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., Gapen, M. & Montiel, P. J. (2009). Do Workers’ Remittances Promote Economic Growth? (IMF Working Paper No. 09/153). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

9. Bayangos, V. & Jansen, K. (2011). “Remittances and Competitiveness: The Case of the Philippines”. World Development, 39(10): 1834-1846.
10. Bourdet, Y. & Falck, H. (2006). “Emigrants’ Remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde”. International Economic Journal, 20(3): 267-284.
11. Brown, R. L., Durbin, J. & Evans, J. M. (1975). “Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time”. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B, 37(2): 149-192.
12. Catrinescu, N., Leon-Ledesma, M., Piracha, M. & Quillin, B. (2009). “Remittances, Institutions, and Economic Growth”. World Development, 37(1): 81-92.
13. Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo. (2024). Financial Stability Report No. 20. Prishtina: Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo.
14. Central Bank of the Republic of Kosovo. (2026). Statistics. https://bqk-kos.org/statistikat/ Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C. & Jahjah, S. (2005). “Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?”. IMF Staff Papers, 52(1): 55-81.
15. Combes, J.-L. & Ebeke, C. (2011). “Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries”. World Development, 39(7): 1076-1089.
16. Combes, J.-L., Ebeke, C. H., Etoundi, S. M. N. & Yogo, T. U. (2014). “Are Remittances and Foreign Aid a Hedge against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?”. World Development, 54: 81-98.
17. Combes, J.-L., Kinda, T. & Plane, P. (2012). “Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and the Real Exchange Rate”. Journal of Macroeconomics, 34(4): 1034-1043.
18. Corden, W. M. & Neary, J. P. (1982). “Booming Sector and De-industrialisation in a Small Open Economy”. The Economic Journal, 92(368): 825-848.
19. Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366): 427-431.
20. Duval, L. & Wolff, F.-C. (2015). “Ethnicity and Remittances: Evidence from Kosovo”. Journal of Comparative Economics, 43(2): 334-349.
21. Duval, L. & Wolff, F.-C. (2016). “Remittances Matter: Longitudinal Evidence from Kosovo”. Post-Communist Economies, 28(3): 387-406.
22. Freund, C. & Spatafora, N. (2008). “Remittances, Transaction Costs, and Informality”. Journal of Development Economics, 86(2): 356-366.
23. Giuliano, P. & Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2009). “Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth”. Journal of Development Economics, 90(1): 144-152.
24. Kapsoli, J. & Ozturk, E. O. (2025). “Impact of International Shocks on North Macedonia and the Western Balkans: Republic of North Macedonia”. IMF Selected Issues Papers, 2025(065).
25. Kosovo Agency of Statistics. (2026). ASKdata. https://askdata.rks-gov.net/pxweb/sq/ASKdata/ Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root”. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1-3): 159-178.
26. Lartey, E. K. K., Mandelman, F. S. & Acosta, P. A. (2012). “Remittances, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Dutch Disease: A Panel Data Analysis”. Review of International Economics, 20(2): 377-395.
27. Lewbel, A. (2012). “Using Heteroscedasticity to Identify and Estimate Mismeasured and Endogenous Regressor Models”. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 30(1): 67-80.
28. MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6): 601-618.
29. Meyer, W., Möllers, J. & Buchenrieder, G. (2012). “The Effects of Remittances on Poverty and Inequality in Kosovo”. International Migration, 50(6): 204-223.
30. Möllers, J. & Arapi-Gjini, A. (2024). “The Nature and Effects of Remittance Scripts in Rural Kosovo”. Migration Studies, 12(4): 1-15.
31. Narayan, P. K. (2005). “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”. Applied Economics, 37(17): 1979-1990.
32. Osili, U. O. (2004). “Migrants and Housing Investments: Theory and Evidence from Nigeria”. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 52(4): 821-849.
33. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326.
34. Phillips, P. C. B. & Hansen, B. E. (1990). “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes”. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1): 99-125.
35. Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”. Biometrika, 75(2): 335-346. Rajan, R. G. & Subramanian, A. (2011). “Aid, Dutch Disease, and Manufacturing Growth”. Journal of Development Economics, 94(1): 106-118.
36. Rapoport, H. & Docquier, F. (2006). “The Economics of Migrants’ Remittances”. S.-C. Kolm & J. M. Ythier (Ed.). Handbook of the Economics of Giving, Altruism and Reciprocity (1135-1198). Amsterdam: Elsevier.
37. Ratha, D., Plaza, S. & Kim, E. J. (2024). Migration and Development Brief 40: Remittances Slowed in 2023, Expected to Grow Faster in 2024. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.
38. Stock, J. H. & Watson, M. W. (1993). “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”. Econometrica, 61(4): 783-820.
39. Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes”. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2): 225-250.
40. US Census Bureau. (2017). X-13ARIMA-SEATS Reference Manual. Washington, D.C.: US Census Bureau.
41. Woodruff, C. & Zenteno, R. (2007). “Migration Networks and Microenterprises in Mexico”. Journal of Development Economics, 82(2): 509-528.
42. Wooldridge, J. M. (2013). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Mason: South-Western Cengage Learning, 5. Baskı.
43. World Bank. (2024). Migration and Development Brief 40. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group.
44. Yang, D. & Choi, H. (2007). “Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines”. The World Bank Economic Review, 21(2): 219-248.
45. Yang, D. (2008). “International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants’ Exchange Rate Shocks”. The Economic Journal, 118(528): 591-630.