Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Kamu Harcamaları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Wagner Yasası Geçerliği

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı makro değişkenlerin kamu harcamaları üzerindeki etkisinin olup olmadığını araştırmaktır. Bu bağlamda 2006-2020 dönemine ilişkin 11 AB üyesi olan OECD ülkesi seçilerek kamu harcamalarıyla makro değişkenler arasında ilişkinin olup olmadığı belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Wagner Yasası’nın geçerliğini; yani ekonomik büyümeden kamu harcamalarına doğru ilişkinin belirlenmesinde Panel Nedensellik test yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bazı ön koşullar sağlandıktan sonra yapılan Panel Nedensellik test sonuçlarına göre, kamu harcamalarıyla ekonomik büyüme arasında tek yönlü bir ilişkinin olduğu gözlemlenmiştir (Keynesyen hipotezi geçerlidir). Diğer taraftan kamu harcamaları ile enflasyon oranı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkinin olduğu görülmüştür. Araştırmadan elde edilen son sonuç ise, enflasyon oranı ile iktisadı büyüme arasında karşılıklı nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğudur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kamu Harcamaları
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Enflasyon Oranı
• Wagner Yasası
• Panel Nedensellik

The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Public Expenditure: Validity of Wagner’s Law

Öz

The aim of this study is to investigate whether macro variables have an effect on public expenditures. In this context, 11 EU member OECD countries were selected for the period 2006-2020 and it was tried to determine whether there is a relationship between public expenditures and macro variables. the validity of Wagner's Law; in other words, Panel Causality test method was used to determine the relationship between economic growth and public expenditures. According to the Panel Causality test results, which were made after some preconditions were met, it was observed that there is a one-way relationship between public expenditures and economic growth ( Keynesian hypothesis is valid). On the other hand, it has been observed that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between public expenditures and the inflation rate. The recent result obtained from the research is that there is a mutual causal relationship between the inflation rate and economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Public Expenditures
• Economic Growth
• Inflation Rate
• Wagner
• Panel Causality

Kaynakça

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