Kişi Başı Reel Gelir Yakınsaması ve Enerji Güvenliği Riski Yakınsaması Bulunuyor mu? Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda Örneği

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 41 Sayı: 1, 288 - 305, 06.03.2026

Mehmet Erdoğmuş

https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1636150

https://izlik.org/JA82CZ49PJ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın bir amacı Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda arasında kişi başı reel gelir yakınsamasının bulunup bulunmadığını ortaya koymaktır. Çalışmanın diğer bir amacı ise Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda arasında enerji güvenliği riski yakınsamasının bulunup bulunmadığını ortaya koymaktır. Veri mevcudiyetine bağlı olarak kişi başı reel gelir yakınsamasının test edilmesinde dikkate alınan analiz dönemi 1870–2022 dönemidir. Yine veri mevcudiyetine bağlı olarak enerji güvenliği riski yakınsamasının test edilmesinde dikkate alınan analiz dönemi 1980–2018 dönemidir. Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda arasında enerji güvenliği riski yakınsamasının bulunup bulunmadığını araştıran ampirik bir çalışmaya rastlanılmamıştır. Çalışma ayrıca politika yapıcılar için önemli bilgi de sağlamaktadır. Bu nedenlerden ötürü çalışma önem arz etmektedir. Mutlak yakınsamayı sınamak için birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Kişi başı reel gelir açısından koşullu yakınsamayı sınamak için ise iki adet yapısal kırılmayı dikkate alan durağanlık testi uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular dikkate alınarak kişi başı reel gelir açısından mutlak yakınsamanın olmadığına karar verilmiştir. Ancak kişi başı reel gelir açısından koşullu yakınsamanın olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Enerji güvenliği riski açısından ise mutlak yakınsamanın bulunduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji Güvenliği Riski , Kişi Başı Reel Gelir , Koşullu Yakınsama , Mutlak Yakınsama

Is There a Per Capita Real Income Convergence and Energy Security Risk Convergence? The Case of Australia and New Zealand

https://izlik.org/JA82CZ49PJ

Öz

One objective of this study is to reveal whether there is a per capita real income convergence between Australia and New Zealand. Another objective of the study is to determine whether there is an energy security risk convergence between Australia and New Zealand. Depending on data availability, the analysis period considered in testing the per capita real income convergence is the period 1870–2022. The analysis period for testing the energy security risk convergence is 1980–2018, based on data availability. No empirical study was found to have examined whether energy security risk convergence exists between Australia and New Zealand. The study also provides important information for policymakers. For these reasons, the study is important. A unit root test was applied to test absolute convergence. To test the conditional convergence in terms of per capita real income, a stationarity test that considers two structural breaks was applied. Considering the findings, it was decided that there was no absolute convergence in terms of per capita real income. However, it was concluded that there was a conditional convergence in terms of per capita real income. In terms of energy security risk, it was concluded that there is absolute convergence.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy Security Risk , Per Capita Real Income , Conditional Convergence , Absolute Convergence

Kaynakça

• Apergis, N., Kuziboev, B., Abdullaev, I., & Rajabov, A. (2023). Investigating the association among CO2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in Uzbekistan: An ARDL approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(14), 39666–39679. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-25023-z
• Ayala, A., Cunado, J., & Gil-Alana, L. A. (2013). Real convergence: Empirical evidence for Latin America. Applied Economics, 45(22), 3220–3229. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2012.703317
• Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Chang, T., Elmi, Z. M., & Ranjbar, O. (2018). Re-examination of the convergence hypothesis among OECD countries: Evidence from Fourier quantile unit root test. International Economics, 156, 77–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2017.12.002
• Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407–443. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937943
• Baumol, W. J. (1986). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: What the long-run data show. The American Economic Review, 76(5), 1072–1085. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1816469
• Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Convergence in international output. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10(2), 97–108. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950100202
• Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1996). Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis. Journal of Econometrics, 71(1–2), 161–173. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01699-2
• Beyaert, A., & Camacho, M. (2008). TAR panel unit root tests and real convergence. Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 668–681. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2008.00479.x
• Bolt, J., & Van Zanden, J. L. (2024a). Maddison Project Database 2023 [Veri Seti]. Erişim Adresi: https://dataverse.nl/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi:10.34894/INZBF2 (Erişim Tarihi: 27.08.2024).
• Bolt, J., & Van Zanden, J. L. (2024b). Maddison‐style estimates of the evolution of the world economy: A new 2023 update. Journal of Economic Surveys,39(2),631-672. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12618
• Bretschger, L. (2004). Wachstumstheorie. (3. Baskı). München: Oldenbourg Wissenschaftsverlag GmbH.
• Carlino, G. A., & Mills, L. O. (1993). Are U.S. regional incomes converging?: A time series analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(93)90009-5
• Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., & Sansó, A. (2005). The KPSS test with two structural breaks. Erişim Adresi: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Andreu-Sanso/publication/24064952_The_KPSS_test_with_two_structural_breaks/links/09e4150cae2d27831a000000/The-KPSS-test-with-two-structural-breaks.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 23.01.2025).
• Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., & Sansó, A. (2007). The KPSS test with two structural breaks. Spanish Economic Review, 9(2), 105–127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10108-006-9017-8
• Cergibozan, R. (2022). Renewable energy sources as a solution for energy security risk: Empirical evidence from OECD countries. Renewable Energy, 183, 617–626. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.11.056
• Ceylan, R., & Abiyev, V. (2016). An examination of convergence hypothesis for EU-15 countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 45, 96–105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.05.007
• Chong, T. T. L., Hinich, M. J., Liew, V. K. S., & Lim, K. P. (2008). Time series test of nonlinear convergence and transitional dynamics. Economics Letters, 100(3), 337–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2008.02.025
• Chowdhury, K., & Mallik, G. (2011). Pairwise output convergence in selected countries of East Asia and the Pacific: An application of stochastic unit root test. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 28(1), 1–15.
• Cuñado, J., & De Gracia, F. P. (2006). Real convergence in Africa in the second-half of the 20th century. Journal of Economics and Business, 58(2), 153–167. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2005.07.002
• Dawson, J. W., & Strazicich, M. C. (2010). Time-series tests of income convergence with two structural breaks: Evidence from 29 countries. Applied Economics Letters, 17(9), 909–912. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850802584807
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
• Dogan, E. (2015). The relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption from renewable and non-renewable sources: A study of Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, 534–546. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.130
• Dutta, M. (2009). The Asian economy and Asian money. Bingley: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Eryer, A. (2023). Yakınsama hipotezinin test edilmesi: E7 ülkelerinden ampirik kanıtlar. Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi Uygulamalı Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 245–255. https://doi.org/10.31200/makuubd.1315889
• Galor, O. (1996). Convergence? Inferences from theoretical models. The Economic Journal, 106(437), 1056–1069. https://doi.org/10.2307/2235378
• Ghoshray, A., & Khan, F. A. (2015). New empirical evidence on income convergence. Empirical Economics, 49(1), 343–361. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-014-0869-8
• Global Energy Institute (2020). International index of energy security risk: Assessing risk in a global energy market. 2020 Edition. Washington, DC: The United States Chamber of Commerce.
• Global Energy Institute (t.y.). Energy security risk scores for top 75 energy-consuming countries in 2010: 1980–2018 (OECD 1980 =1,000) [Veri Seti]. Erişim Adresi: https://www.globalenergyinstitute.org/energy-security-risk-index (Erişim Tarihi: 9.05.2024).
• Gozgor, G., Lau, C. K. M., & Lu, Z. (2018). Energy consumption and economic growth: New evidence from the OECD countries. Energy, 153, 27–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.158
• Greasley, D., & Oxley, L. (1997). Time-series based tests of the convergence hypothesis: Some positive results. Economics Letters, 56(2), 143–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(97)81892-7
• Greasley, D., & Oxley, L. (1999). Growing apart? Australia and New Zealand growth experiences, 1870–1993. New Zealand Economic Papers, 33(2), 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/00779959909544304
• Greasley, D., & Oxley, L. (2000). Outside the club: New Zealand's economic growth, 1870–1993. International Review of Applied Economics, 14(2), 173–192. https://doi.org/10.1080/02692170050024732
• Herz, B., & Drescher, C. (2010). Rohstoffe und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung. R. Eller, M. Heinrich, R. Perrot, M. Reif (Ed.), Management von Rohstoffrisiken: Strategien, Märkte und Produkte içinde (s. 85–103). Wiesbaden: Gabler.
• King, A., & Ramlogan-Dobson, C. (2011). Nonlinear time-series convergence: The role of structural breaks. Economics Letters, 110(3), 238–240. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.12.001
• King, A., & Ramlogan-Dobson, C. (2015). International income convergence: Is Latin America actually different?. Economic Modelling, 49, 212–222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.04.008
• Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?. Journal of Econometrics, 54(1–3), 159–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
• Li, Q., & Papell, D. (1999). Convergence of international output time series evidence for 16 OECD countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 8(3), 267–280. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1059-0560(99)00020-9
• Liew, V. K. S., & Ahmad, Y. (2009). Income convergence: Fresh evidence from the Nordic countries. Applied Economics Letters, 16(12), 1245–1248. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850701367205
• Liew, V. K. S., & Lim, K. P. (2005). Income divergence? Evidence of non-linearity in the East Asian economies. Economics Bulletin, 15(1), 1–7.
• Loewy, M. B., & Papell, D. H. (1996). Are U.S. regional incomes converging? Some further evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 38(3), 587–598. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01292-5
• Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407–437. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118477
• Mathur, S. K. (2005). Economic growth & conditional convergence: Its speed for selected regions for 1961-2001. Indian Economic Review, 40(2), 185–208. https://www.jstor.org/stable/29793843
• Matthies, K. (1993). Lessons from three oil shocks, Intereconomics, (28)2, 55–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02928104
• Miller, S. M., & Upadhyay, M. P. (2002). Total factor productivity and the convergence hypothesis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24(2),267–286.https://doi.org/10.1016/S0164-0704(02)00022-8
• Objective Lists (t.y.a). The most similar countries to Australia. Erişim Adresi: https://objectivelists.com/which-countries-are-most-similar-to-australia/ (Erişim Tarihi: 11.08.2024).
• Objective Lists (t.y.b). The most similar countries to New Zealand. Erişim Adresi: https://objectivelists.com/which-countries-are-most-similar-to-new-zealand/ (Erişim Tarihi: 11.08.2024).
• Oxley, L., & Greasley, D. (1995). A Time‐series perspective on convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870. Economic Record, 71, 259–270. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.1995.tb01893.x
• Oxley, L., & Greasley, D. (1999). A Nordic convergence club?. Applied Economics Letters, 6(3), 157–160. https://doi.org/10.1080/135048599353537
• Pata, U. K., & Karlilar, S. (2024). The integrated influence of energy security risk and green innovation on the material footprint: An EKC analysis based on fossil material flows. Journal of Cleaner Production, 435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140469
• Payne, J. E., Truong, H. H. D., Chu, L. K., Doğan, B., & Ghosh, S. (2023). The effect of economic complexity and energy security on measures of energy efficiency: Evidence from panel quantile analysis. Energy Policy, 177. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113547
• Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Time series and panel data econometrics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika. 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
• Poddig, T., Dichtl, H., & Petersmeier, K. (2008). Statistik, Ökonometrie, Optimierung: Methoden und ihre praktischen Anwendungen in Finanzanalyse und Portfoliomanagement. (4. Baskı). Uhlenbruch Verlag, Bad Soden/Ts.
• Rahman, M. M., & Velayutham, E. (2020). Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus: New evidence from South Asia. Renewable Energy, 147, 399–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.09.00
• Reza, R., & Zahra, K. T. (2008). Evaluation of the income convergence hypothesis in ten new members of the European Union. A panel unit root approach. Panoeconomicus, 55(2), 157–166. https://doi.org/10.2298/PAN0802157R
• Shahbaz, M., & Lean, H. H. (2012). The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan. Energy, 39(1), 146–153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.01.048
• Solarin, S. A., Ahmed, E. M., & Dahalan, J. (2014). Income convergence dynamics in ASEAN and SAARC blocs. New Zealand Economic Papers, 48(3), 285–300. https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2013.874399
• Strazicich, M. C., Lee, J., & Day, E. (2004). Are incomes converging among OECD countries? Time series evidence with two structural breaks. Journal of Macroeconomics, 26(1), 131–145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2002.11.001
• Svazas, M., Navickas, V., Paskevicius, R., Bilan, Y., & Shahzad, U. (2025). Energy security challenges in Europe: The importance of renewable energy innovations for economic viability after Russia Ukraine war. Environment, Development and Sustainability,1-27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-025-06163-x
• The Commonwealth (2022). Map of Commonwealth countries. Erişim Adresi: https://thecommonwealth.org/map (Erişim Tarihi: 26.08.2024).
• Tunali, Ç. B., & Yilanci, V. (2010). Are per capita incomes of MENA countries converging or diverging?. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 389(21), 4855–4862. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2010.06.053
• Wane, A. A. (2004). Growth and convergence in WAEMU countries (IMF Working Paper No. WP/04/198). Erişim Adresi: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/downloadpdf/journals/001/2004/198/article-A001-en.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 18.04.2024).
• Wellings, B. (2019). English nationalism, Brexit and the Anglosphere: Wider still and wider. Manchester: Manchester University Press.
• Wilhelm, R. (1996). Endogene Wachstumstheorien und ihre Implikationen für Entwicklungsländer (Entwicklungsökonomische Diskussionsbeiträge No. 20). Erişim Adresi: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/45840/1/66214449X.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 17.01.2025).
• Yaya, O. S., Furuoka, F., Pui, K. L., Jacob, R. I., & Ezeoke, C. M. (2020). Investigating Asian regional income convergence using Fourier unit root test with break. International Economics, 161, 120–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2019.11.008
• Yucel, A., Moore, L., Khadka, P., & Lee, J. (2024). New evidence on the income convergence among OECD countries. Digital Economy and Sustainable Development, 2(1),20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44265-024-00044-3