A Long-Term Performance Analysis of SMEs in Türkiye Using RATMI, MACAD, and L-MABAC Methods

Öz

In this study, the macroeconomic performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Türkiye between 2013 and 2022 was examined, with particular attention paid to structural vulnerabilities to external shocks. Prior to evaluating performance, the dimensions of financial efficiency, production efficiency, R&D and innovation efficiency, foreign trade efficiency, and employee efficiency were weighed using objective and subjective multi-criteria methods. Annual performance rankings were determined using the RATMI, MACAD, and Logarithmic-MABAC methods, whilst the model's robustness was tested through scenario-based sensitivity analyses. The research findings indicate that SME performance is highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks, rather than following a linear, steady growth trajectory. When examining the downturns caused by the financial turmoil of 2018 and the 2020 pandemic, the decline in R&D investment prior to the crisis was consistent with the investment hysteresis and uncertainty theories found in the literature. Furthermore, foreign trade ventures lacking sound technological and financial foundations are highly sensitive and rapidly deteriorate under external pressure. From a methodological perspective, the MACAD and RATMI techniques offer a resilient, highly consistent analytical foundation that mutually corroborates results even under extreme sensitivity scenarios.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Multi-Criteria Decision -Making (MCDM)
• Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SME) Performance
• Longitudinal Analysis and Simulation

Türkiye’deki KOBİ’lerin RATMI, MACAD ve L-MABAC Yöntemleri Kullanılarak Yapılan Uzun Vadeli Performans Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2013-2022 yılları arasında Türkiye’deki küçük ve orta ölçekli işletmelerin (KOBİ’ler) makroekonomik performansı, özellikle dış şoklara karşı yapısal kırılganlıklar dikkate alınarak incelenmiştir. Performansın değerlendirilmesinden önce finansal etkinlik, üretim etkinliği, ar-ge ve inovasyon etkinliği, dış ticaret etkinliği ve çalışan etkinliği boyutları nesnel ve öznel çok kriterli yöntemler kullanılarak ağırlıklandırılmıştır. Yıllık performans sıralamaları RATMI, MACAD ve Logaritmik-MABAC yöntemleriyle belirlenmiş, modelin sağlamlığı ise senaryolara dayalı duyarlılık analizleriyle test edilmiştir. Araştırma bulguları, KOBİ’lerin performansının doğrusal ve istikrarlı bir büyüme eğrisi izlemek yerine makroekonomik şoklara karşı son derece duyarlı olduğunu göstermiştir. 2018’deki finansal çalkantı ve 2020’deki pandeminin yol açtığı daralmalar incelendiğinde, kriz öncesinde Ar-Ge yatırımlarındaki düşüş, literatürde yer alan yatırım ataleti ve belirsizlik kuramlarıyla tutarlılık sergilemiştir. Ayrıca, sağlam teknolojik ve finansal temellere sahip olmayan dış ticaret girişimlerinin, dış baskı altında hızla kötüleşen seyirde daha yüksek bir hassasiyet sergilediği görülmüştür. Metodolojik açıdan bakıldığında ise, MACAD ve RATMI teknikleri, aşırı duyarlılık senaryolarında bile sonuçları karşılıklı olarak doğrulayan, dayanıklı ve son derece tutarlı bir analitik temel sunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çok Kriterli Karar Verme (ÇKKV)
• Küçük ve Orta Ölçekli İşletmelerin (KOBİ) Performansı
• Boylamsal Analiz ve Simülasyon

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