Balkan Ülkelerinde İstihdam, İşsizlik ve Genç İşsizliği ile Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Ampirik Bir Analiz

Öz

Yüksek işsizlik ve istihdam düzeyinin kötüleşmesi dünya ekonomisinde işgücü piyasasının temel sorunları olarak bilinmektedir. Son dönemlerde üzerinde sıklıkla durulan genç işsizlik konusu da işgücü piyasasının temel sorunlarından biridir. Bugün pek çok gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke bu sorunlar ile uğraşmaktadır. Balkan ülkelerinde ise durum farklı değildir. Uluslararası ekonomik raporlar pek çok Balkan gencinin işsizlik sorunu ile karşı karşıya olduğunu belirtmekte, gençlerin ülkelerinden göç etmek zorunda kaldıklarına dikkat çekmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmanın amacı yedi Balkan ülkesini (Arnavutluk, Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan, Romanya, Slovenya, Sırbistan, ve Yunanistan) ele alarak istihdam, işsizlik ve genç işsizliği ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Çalışmada 1996-2017 dönemi verileri kullanılmış ve yöntem olarak Kónya (2006) tarafından geliştirilen bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik testi seçilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları ele alınan Balkan ülkelerinde istihdam, işsizlik ve genç işsizliği ile ekonomik büyümenin birbiriyle ilişkili olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İstihdam,İşsizlik,Genç işsizliği,Ekonomik büyüme,Balkan ülkeleri,Panel nedensellik

The Relationship of Economic Growth with Employment, Unemployment and Youth Unemployment in the Balkan Countries : An Empirical Analysis

Öz

High unemployment and deterioration of employment conditions are considered as the main problems of labour markets in the world economy. The issue of youth unemployment, which has been frequently discussed recently, is also a central labour market problem. Today, many developed and developing countries are experiencing these problems. The situation in the Balkan countries is not different. International economic reports show that many of Balkan youths face unemployment problem and this results in young people migrating from their countries. In this context, the aim of the study is to research the relationship of economic growth with employment, unemployment and youth unemployment by considering the seven Balkan countries (Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania, Serbia, and Slovenia). In the study, 1996-2017 period data was used and the bootstrap panel Granger causality test proposed by Kónya (2006) has been chosen as the econometric method. The findings of the analysis indicate that the economic growth is related with employment, unemployment and youth unemployment in the mentioned Balkan countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Employment,Unemployment,Youth unemployment,Economic growth,Balkan countries,Panel causality

Kaynakça

1. ABRAHAM, I. O., OZEMHOKA, A. M. (2017), “Youth Unemployment and Economic Growth: Lesson from Low-Income Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa”, European Journal of Economics, Law and Politics, ELP, 4(2), 1-15.
2. AKKEMİK, K. A. (2007), “The Response of Employment to GDP Growth in Turkey: An Econometric Estimation”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 7(1), 65-74.
3. AKSU, L. (2017), “Türkiye’de İstihdam, Verimlilik ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkilerinin Analizi”, Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 4(1), 39-94.
4. BALLIU, J. (2016), Unemployment in Western Balkan Candidatest European Union, Epoka University, The Degree of Master of Science in Banking and Finance, Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ugur Ergun, Albania.
5. BÖLÜKBAŞ, M. (2018), “Do Inflation and Economic Growth Substantially Affect Youth Unemployment? Evidence From 20 Emerging Economies”, International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 11(18. EYI Special Issue), 55-66.
6. BREUSCH, T., S., PAGAN, A. R. (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
7. DANFORTH, L., CRAMPTON, R. J., ALCOCK, J. B. (2019), “Balkans”, Encyclopædia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/place/Balkans (01/04/2019).
8. DRITSAKIS, N., STAMATIOU, P. (2016) “The Effects of Unemployment on Economic Growth in Greece. An ARDL Bound Test Approach”, The Romanian Economic Journal, XIX(62), 53-72.

9. FETAI, B. T., MUSTAFI, B. F., FETAI, A. B. (2017), “An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Economic Growth in the Western Balkans”, Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 64(2), 245-254.
10. GÜRİŞ, S., YAMAN, B.(2018), “OECD Ülkelerinde İşsizliği Etkileyen Faktörlerin Panel Veri Modelleri ile Analizi”, Social Sciences Research Journal, 7(1), 136-146.
11. KOÇBULUT, Ö., BOLAT, S. (2017), “Balkan Ülkelerinde İşsizlik Histerisi ve Doğal Oran Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Ampirik Bir Değerlendirme”, Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(16), 295-317.
12. KÓNYA, L. (2006), “Exports and Growth: Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries with a Panel Data Approach”, Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978–992.
13. KURTOVIC, S., SILJKOVIC, B., MILANOVIC, M. (2015), “Long-term Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Reduction of Unemployment: Panel Data Analysis of the Western Balkans Countries”, Journal of Applied Economics and Business Research, 5 (2), 112-129.
14. MALAJ, V., RUBERTIS, S. D. (2016), “Determinants of Western Balkan Emigration Flows: An Empirical Analysis”, International Economics, 69(3), 233-252.
15. MEYER, D. F. (2017), “An Analysis of the Short and Long-run Effects of Economic Growth on Employment in South Africa”, International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 9(1), 177-193.
16. MISINI, S., BADIVUKU-PANTINA, M. (2017) , “The Effect of Economic Growth in Relation to Unemployment”, Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 18(2), 1-9.
17. NDREGJONI, A., ZERELLI, S. (2015), “The Impact of Growth Rate of GDP on Unemployment Rate in Balkan Countries (Albania, Montenegro, Serbia And Macedonia) During 2000-2013”, International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, III(8), 435-447.
18. NIKOLI, E. (2014), “Economic Growth and Unemployment Rate. Case of Albania”, European Journal of Social Sciences Education and Research, 1(1), 217-227.
19. ORUC, N., BARTLETT, W. (2018), “Labour Markets in the Western Balkans Performance, Causes and Policy Options”, Regional Cooperation Council: Sarajevo.
20. PAVLOVIC, D., ZUBOVIC, J., OBRADOVIC, V. (2017), “Relationship of the Youth Unemployment and Determinants of the Labour Market in the Balkan Countries”, Industrija, 45(4), 153-166.
21. PESARAN, M. H. (2004),“General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics (CWPE), 0435.
22. PESARAN, M. H., YAMAGATA, T. (2008), “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1).
23. PESARAN, M.H., ULLAH, A., YAMAGATA, T. (2008), “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105–127.
24. SADIKU, M., IBRAIMI, A., SADIKU, L. (2015), “Econometric Estimation of the Relationship between Unemployment Rate and Economic Growth of FYR of Macedonia”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 19, 69 – 81.
25. SWAMY, P. A. V. B. (1970), “Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model”, Econometrica, 38(2), 311–323.
26. THORUP, C. L. (2004), “What Works in Youth Employment in the Balkans”, International Youth Foundation, What Work Series.
27. URAS Ö. (2016), “Türkiye Ekonomisindeki İstihdamsız Büyümenin Ekonometrik Analizi”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik e-Dergisi, 24, 94-108.
28. UVALIĆ, M., CVIJANOVIĆ, V. (2018), “Towards A Sustainable Economic Growth and Development in the Western Balkans”, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Zagreb, March, https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/kroatien/14688.pdf (01/02/2019).
29. ÜZAR, U., AKYAZI, H. (2018), “Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişkinin OECD Ülkeleri Düzeyinde Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, C.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 19(2), 463-479.
30. WORLD BANK (2017) “Western Balkans Labor Market Trends 2017”, World Bank Group.
31. ZELLNER, A. (1962), “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57(298), 348–368.