A Comprehensive Overview on Political Budget Cycles in Turkey

Öz

In this study, it has been explored the existence of political budget cycles in the term of the Justice and Development Party for the period 2007-2018. There are a few features that make this study different from other similar studies. Firstly, all estimations are obtained with province-based data, and the impact of general elections is separated by more comprehensive public expenditure sub-items. Secondly, political budget cycles are analyzed in metropolitan cities. Finally, all the predictions obtained are verified by robustness tests. According to results, there exists a political budget cycle in elections, but size of the election coefficient is very small. Moreover, public spending for metropolitan cities during election periods has shown to be more pronounced than other provinces and all predictions are robust.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Public Policy
• Business Cycles
• Panel Econometrics

Türkiye’de Politik Bütçe Döngüleri Üzerine Kapsamlı Bir Bakış

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2007-2018 yılları arasında Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi döneminde politik bütçe dalgalanmalarının geçerliliği araştırılmıştır. Bu çalışmayı diğer çalışmalardan farklı kılan birkaç özellik bulunmaktadır. Öncelikle il bazlı bir veri ile tahminler elde edilmiş ve genel seçimlerin etkisi kamu harcama alt kalemlerine göre ayrıştırılmıştır. İkinci olarak, büyükşehirler için politik bütçe dalgalanmalarının analizi yapılmıştır. Son olarak elde edilen tüm tahminlerin güçlü olduğu gösterilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre seçim dönemlerinde kamu harcamaları üzerinde politik bütçe dalgalanmalarının varlığının açık ancak boyutunun çok küçük olduğu, büyükşehirler için yapılan kamu harcamalarının diğer illere göre daha belirgin olduğu ve elde edilen tüm tahmin sonuçlarının sağlamlık testleri ile değişmediği gösterilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Maliye Politikası
• Konjonktür Dalgalanmaları
• Panel Ekonometri

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