Kamu Harcamalarının Dışlama Etkisinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı, kamu tüketim ve yatırım harcamalarının Türkiye ekonomisindeki özel sektör yatırımları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu çalışmada 1980-2018 verilerine dayalı Eşbütünleşme Vektörü Otoregresif Model kullanılmıştır. Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi'nden elde edilen eşbütünleşme vektörünün sonuçları, incelenen dönemde kamu yatırım harcamalarının birbirini tamamlayıcı ve teşvik edici olduğunu ve kamu tüketim harcamalarının özel yatırım harcamaları ile rekabet halinde olduğunu göstermektedir. Sonuçlara göre, çeşitli ekonomik sektörlerde ekonomik refah ve kalkınma için hükümetin altyapı harcamalarını üstlenmesi önerilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Özel Sektör Yatırımları
• Kamu Sektörü Tüketim Harcamaları
• Kamu Sektörü Yatırım Harcamaları
• Eşbütünleşme

Investigating Crowding-Out Effect Of Government Expenditures: Evidence From Turkey

Öz

The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of government consumption and investment expenditures on private sector investment in the Turkish economy. In this study, the Cointegration Vector Autoregressive Model based on 1980-2018 data has been used. The results of the cointegration vector obtained from the Johansen Cointegration Test show that during the period under review, government investment expenditures are complementary and incentive and government consumption expenditures are competitive with private investment expenditures. Based on the results, it is suggested that to economic prosperity and development in various economic sectors, the government should undertake infrastructure expenditures.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Private Sector Investment
• Public Sector Consumption Expenditures
• Public Sector Investment Expenditures
• Cointegration

Kaynakça

1. Altunç, Ö. F. and Şentürk, B. (2010). Türkiye’de Özel Yatırımlar ve Kamu Yatırımları arasındaki İlişkinin Ampirik Analizi: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Finance Magazine, 158, 531-546.
2. Altunöz, U. (2013). Kamu Kesimi İç Borçlanmasının Özel Yatırım Harcamaları Üzerinde Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Uludag Journal of Economy and Society, 32 (2), 25-53.
3. Aschauer, D. (1989). Does Public Capital Crowd Out Private Capital? Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Journal of Monetary Economics, 24, 117-127.
4. Bahal, G., Raissi, M. and Tulin, V. (2018). Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Public and Private Investment in India. World Development, 109, 323–333.
5. Bailey, M. (1971). National İncome And The Price Level. London: Mc Graw-Hill.
6. Bairam, E. and Ward, E. (1993). The Externality Effect of Government Expenditure on İnvestment in OECD Countries. Applied Economics, 25, 711-717.
7. Barro, R. (1981). Output Effects of Government Purchas. Journal of political Economy, 989, 342– 367.
8. Başar, S. and Temurlenk, S. M. (2007). Investigating Crowding-Out Effect Of Government Spending For Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach. Ataturk University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 21 (2), 95-104.

9. Blejer, M. and Khan, M. (1984). Government Policy and Private Investment in Developing Countries. IMF Staff Papers, 37, 379- 403.
10. Buiter, W.H. (1977). Crowding Out and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy. Journal of Public Economics, 7, 342–366.
11. Cural, M., Eriçok, R. E. and Yılancı, V. (2012). Türkiye’de Kamu Yatırımlarının Özel Sektör Yatırımları Üzerindeki Etkisi: 1970-2009. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 12 (1), 73-87.
12. Çelik, N. (2016). Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Kamu-Özel Kesim Yatırım Harcamaları İlişkisi. Journal of Management and Economics, 23 (3), 653-669.
13. Dreger, C. and Reimers, H. E. (2016). Does Public İnvestment Stimulate Private İnvestment? Evidence for the Euro Area. Economic Modelling, 58, 154–158.
14. Erden, L. (2005). Public and Private İnvestment in a Vector Error Correction Model: Empirical Evidence From Turkey. Hacettepe University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 23 (1), 17-27.
15. Erenburg, S.J. (1993). The Real Effect of Public Investment on Private Investment. Applied Economics, 25, 831- 837.
16. Green, J. and Villanuev, D. (1997). Private Investment in Developing Countries. An Empirical Analysis, 38, 315–328.
17. Kaytancı, U. B. (2017). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamalarının Dışlayıcılık ve Tamamlayıcılık Etkilerinin Araştırılması. Journal of Aksaray University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 9 (3), 1-14.
18. Kollamparambil, U. and Nicolaou, M. (2011). Nature and Association of Public and Private Investment: Public Policy Implications for South Africa. Journal of Economics and International Finance, 3 (2), 98–108.
19. Koyck, L.M. (1954). Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. North-Holland Amsterdam: Publishing Company.
20. Lizal, L. and Svejnar, J. (2002). Investment Credit Rationing and Soft Budget Constraint: Evidence from Czeeh Panel Data. Working Paper, 363, 80 –110.
21. Mahoudzadeh, M. and Sadeghi, S. (2013). Fiscal Spending and Crowding Out Effect: A Comparison between Developed and Developing Countries. Institutions and Economies, 5 (1), 31–40.
22. Mamatzakis, E.C. (1996). The Effects of Public Expenditure on Private Investment: An Empirical Application. The Asymmetric Global Economy, 25, 156-172.
23. Mishkin, F. S. (2011). The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets. Toronto: Pearson Canada.
24. Monadjemi, M.S. (1993). Fiscal Policy and Private Investment Expenditure: A Study of Australia and the United States. Applied Economics, 2, 121–142.
25. Monadjemi, M.S. and Huh, H. (1998). Private and Government Investment: A Study of Three OECD Countries. International Economic Journal, 12(2), 93 -104.
26. Ott, I. and Soreiz, S. (2006). Government Expenditure, Capital Adjustment and Economic Growth. Computing in Economics and Finance, 362, 1-27.
27. Pesaran, M.H. and Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
28. Schclarek, A. (2007). Fiscal Policy and Private Consumption in Industrial and Developing Countries. Forthcoming Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(4), 912-939.
29. Sineviciene, L. (2015). Testing the Relationship between Government Expenditure and Private Investment: The Case Of Small Open Economies. Journal of Economics, Business and Management, 3 (6), 628–632.
30. Strauss, T. (1999). Growth and Government: Is There a Difference between Developed and Developing Countries?. Stockholm School of Economics, 275, 190 – 225.
31. Sundarajan, V. and Thankur, S. (1980). Public Investment, Crowding Out, and Growth: A Dynamic Model Applied to India and Korea. IMF Staff Papers, 27, 814-855.
32. Sun G, K. (2005). The Relations between Government R&D and Private R&D Expenditure in the APEC Economies-A Time Series Analysis. Finance Working Papers, 318, 180–214.
33. Şimşek, M. (2003). Kamu Harcamalarının Özel Yatırımlara Etkileri, 1970- 2001. Cumhuriyet University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 4 (2), 1-20.
34. Tun Wai, U. and Wong, C. (1982). Determinates of Private Investment in Developing Countries. Journal of Developing Studies, 19, 19-36.