Depremlerin Sigortacılık Sektörü Hisse Senetleri Üzerinde Etkisi Olabilir mi? 2020 Yılındaki İzmir Depremi Üzerine Bir Araştırma

Öz

Bu çalışmada, depremlerin sigortacılık sektöründe faaliyet gösteren firmaların hisse senetleri üzerindeki etkisinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla, İzmir şehrinde şiddetli yıkıcı etkiler yaratan 30 Ekim 2020 tarihinde meydana gelen deprem, bu çalışmada ele alınmıştır. BIST TUM endeksi içerisinde bulunan sigortacılık sektörü hisse senetlerinin bu deprem felaketine verdiği tepkiler olay çalışması yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analizde, hisse senetlerinin deprem tarihi öncesindeki ve sonrasındaki 15, 30, 45, 60 ve 75 günlük zaman dilimlerindeki kümülatif anormal getirilerinde (cumulative abnormal return-CAR) farklılaşma olup olmadığı bağımlı örneklem t testi (paired samples t test) ile analiz edilmiştir. Sonuçlara göre depremin, sigortacılık sektörü hisse senetlerine ait kümülatif getirilerde 15, 30, 45 ve 60 günlük dönemler için negatif yönde etkiler yarattığı tespit edilmiştir. Riskten kaçınma, kayıptan kaçınma ve belirsizlikten kaçınma davranışsal finans eğilimlerinin, yatırımcılar üzerinde yaratmış olabileceği birtakım etkilerin, hisse senetlerinin getirilerinde meydana gelen düşüşlerin nedenleri arasında olabileceği akıllara gelmektedir. Çalışma sonuçlarının, özellikle felaket dönemlerinde sigortacılık sektörü hisse senetlerinin bu olaylara nasıl tepkiler verebileceğinin ortaya konulabilmesi açısından literature katkı sağlayabileceği düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• davranışsal finans
• sigortacılık
• deprem
• olay çalışması

Could Earthquakes Have an Effect on Insurance Sector Stocks? A Study on the Izmir Earthquake in 2020

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to examine the effects of earthquakes on the stocks of companies operating in the Insurance Sector. For this purpose, the earthquake that occurred on October 30, 2020, which caused severe destructive effects in the city of Izmir, was investigated in this study. The reactions of the insurance sector stocks included in the BIST TUM index to this earthquake disaster were analyzed using case study method. In the analysis, whether there is a differentiation in the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of the stocks in the 15, 30, 45, 60 and 75 days before and after the earthquake was analyzed with the paired samples t test. According to the results, it has been determined that the earthquake has negative effects on the cumulative returns of the insurance sector stocks for the periods of 15, 30, 45 and 60 days. It comes to mind that risk aversion, loss aversion and ambiguty aversion may be among the reasons for the decline in the returns of stocks due to certain effects that behavioral finance trends may have on investors. It is thought that the results of the study could contribute to the literature in terms of demonstrating how the insurance sector stocks might react to these events, especially in disastrous periods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• behavioral finance
• insurance
• earthquake
• event study

Kaynakça

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