Effect of Global Warming on Agriculture Areas in Pakistan

Öz

In this study, long-term average temperature and precipitation data for Pakistan between the years 1991-2021 were evaluated. In addition, long-term average humidity, number of rainy days and sunshine durations between the years 1999-2019 were analyzed. For this purpose, climate data were evaluated with regression analysis and the relationship between monthly changes was tried to be revealed. As a result of the study, it was seen that the long-term average temperature in Pakistan was 20.3 oC ± 7.288; the average minimum temperature was 14.2 oC ± 7.404; the average maximum temperature was 26.7 oC ± 6.650. In addition, the long-term total precipitation average was 1377 mm ± 70.923; Humidity is calculated as 61% ± 11,057; the number of rainy days is 111 days ± 4.770 and the average sunshine duration is 9.8 hours ± 1,370. As a result of the research, Pakistan is negatively affected by global warming and climate change. According to research, Pakistan, which is highly vulnerable to weather conditions, is the 8th worst affected country in the world by climate change due to its impact on agriculture and livelihoods.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Global warming
• Climate change
• Agriculture
• Environmental
• Pakistan

Kaynakça

1. [1] Korstjens A H, Hillyer A P. Primates and climate change: A review of current knowledge. An introduction to primate conservation, 2016; 175-192.
2. [2] Skjoldal H. R. Size-fractioned zooplankton biomass in the Barents Sea ecosystem: changes during four decades of warming and four capelin collapses (1980–2020). ICES Journal of Marine Science, fsad057, 2023.
3. [3] Rasul G, Ahmad B. Climate change in Pakistan. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Technical Report No. PMD-25/2012, 2012.
4. [4] Pachauri K R, Meyer L. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. In Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, 2014; 27: 408 Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
5. [5] Abbas G, Ahmad S, Ahmad A, Nasim W, Fatima Z, Hussain S, Hoogenboom G. Quantification the impacts of climate change and crop management on phenology of maize-based cropping system in Punjab, Pakistan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2017, 247: 42-55.
6. [6] Unlukal C, Erguven GO. Smart Agricultural Approach and Good Agricultural Practices in Sustainable Development Goal. Eurasian Journal of Agricultural Research, 2024; 8(1): 24-32
7. [7] Nelson G C, Rosegrant M W, Koo J, Robertson R, Sulser T, Zhu T, .......Lee D. Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation (Vol. 21). Intl Food Policy Res Inst. 2009.
8. [8] Bakhsh K, Kamran M A. Adaptation to climate change in rain-fed farming system in Punjab, Pakistan. Int J Commons 2019; 13(2): 833-847

9. [9] Chandio A A, Magsi H, Ozturk I. Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 2020a; 27(8): 7812–7822
10. [10] Hussain M, Butt A R, Uzma F, Ahmed R, Irshad S, Rehman A ,Yousaf B. A comprehensive review of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation on environmental and natural calamities in Pakistan. Environ Monit Assess 2020; 192(1):1-20.
11. [11] Mahmood N, Arshad M, Kächele H, Ullah A, Müller K. Economic efficiency of rainfed wheat farmers under changing climate: Evidence from Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020; 27: 34453-34467.
12. [12] Ullah W, Nafees M, Khurshid M, Nihei T. Assessing farmers’ perspectives on climate change for effective farm-level adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 2019; 191: 1-18
13. [13] Qasim M. Determinants of farm income and agricultural risk management strategies: The case of rain-fed farm households in pakistan's Punjab (Vol. 3). kassel university press GmbH. 2012.
14. [14] Gul A, Chandio A A, Siyal S A, Rehman A, Xiumin W.. How climate change is impacting the major yield crops of Pakistan? an exploration from long-and short-run estimation. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2022; 29(18): 26660-26674.
15. [15]Hussain M, Liu G, Yousaf B, Ahmed R, Uzma F, Ali M U, .....Butt A R. Regional and sectoral assessment on climate-change in Pakistan: social norms and indigenous perceptions on climate-change adaptation and mitigation in relation to global context. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018; 200: 791-808.
16. [16] Hussain A, Bangash R. Impact of climate change on crops’ productivity across selected agro-ecological zones in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, 2017; 56(2): 163-187.
17. [17] Hassan Z, Shabbir R, Ahmad S S, Malik A H, Aziz N, Butt A, Erum S. Dynamics of land use and land cover change (LULCC) using geospatial techniques: a case study of Islamabad Pakistan. Springer Plus, 2016; 5: 1-11.
18. [18] Ali S, Liu Y, Ishaq M, Shah T, Abdullah Ilyas A, Din I U. Climate change and its impact on the yield of major food crops: Evidence from Pakistan. Foods, 2017; 6(6):39.
19. [19] Kurukulasuriya P, Rosenthal S. Climate change and agriculture: A review of impacts and adaptations Cliamte change series, 2013; 91.
20. [20] Farooqi A B, Khan A H, Mir H. Climate change perspective in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, 2005; 2(3):11-21
21. [21] Shi Y, Bilal M, Ho H C, Omar A. Urbanization and regional air pollution across South Asian developing countries-A nationwide land use regression for ambient PM2. 5 assessment in Pakistan. Environmental Pollution, 2020; 266: 115145.
22. [22] Rashid F, Makhdoom S. Maternal Health in Pakistan: Where do we stand?. Journal of Islamabad Medical & Dental College, 2019; 8(3), 99-100.
23. [23] Qureshi I A, Hussain M, Raza H, Shahid S, Palvia P, Turan A H. Information Technology Issues in Pakistan. In The World IT Project: Global Issues in Information Technology, 2020; 321-332.
24. [24] Aslam S. A. Women and sport in Pakistan. In Women and Sport in Asia, 2021; 148-156, Routledge.
25. [25] Riaz A. Pandemic Crisis and Democratic Governance in Pakistan. Asia Democracy Research Network, 2021; 175.
26. [26] Khan S U, Hassan M, Khan F K, Bari A. Climate classification of Pakistan, BALWOIS, 25-29 May, 2010; 1-47
27. [27] Rezaeianzadeh M, Tabari H, Arabi Yazdi A, Isik S, Kalin L. Flood flow forecasting using ANN, ANFIS and regression models. Neural Computing and Applications, 2014; 25(1): 25-37.
28. [28] Salihi P B A, Üçler N. The Effect of the Data Type on Anfis Results, Case Study Temperature and Relative Humidity. Journal of Scientific Reports-A, 2021; (046): 14-33.
29. [29] IPCC. Asia in Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007; 469-506
30. [30] McCarthy J J (Ed.). Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Vol. 2). Cambridge University Press, 2001.
31. [31] Zahid M, Rasul G. J. S. I. Frequency of extreme temperature and precipitation events in Pakistan 1965–2009. Sci. Int, 2011; 23(4): 313-319.
32. [32] Aydinalp C, Cresser M S. The effects of global climate change on agriculture. American-Eurasian Journal of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences, 2008; 3(5): 672-676.
33. [33] Malik S M, Awan H, Khan N. Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan. Globalization and health, 2012; 8(1): 1-10.
34. [34] Arif V. The Pakistan Floods: Deepening Vulnerability in Society | Friday Economist. Mahbub ul Haq Research Centre at Lahore University of Management Sciences. December 23, 2022.
35. [35] Chandio A A, Magsi H, Ozturk I. Examining the effects of climate change on rice production: case study of Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020; 27: 7812-7822.
36. [36] Hussain S S, Mudasser M. Prospects for wheat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan–An econometric analysis. Agricultural systems, 2007; 94(2): 494-501.
37. [37] Fahad S, Wang J. Climate change, vulnerability, and its impacts in rural Pakistan: a review. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020; 27: 1334-1338.
38. [38] Khan J A, Fee L. Cities and climate change initiative-abridged report: Islamabad Pakistan, climate change vulnerability assessment. United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat), 2014. (Available: http://www.fukuoka.unhabitat.org/programmes/ccci/pdf/Islamabad(Pakistan)_23_February_2015_FINAL(5th_revision).
39. [39] Khan M A, Tahir A, Khurshid N, Husnain M I U, Ahmed M, Boughanmi H. Economic effects of climate change-induced loss of agricultural production by 2050: A case study of Pakistan. Sustainability, 2020; 12(3): 1216, doi: 10.3390/su12031216