Türkiye’s net zero plan: Mathematical analysis of emission and mitigation approaches

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 569 - 594, 26.06.2025

Mujeeb Adetayo

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1572361

Öz

Türkiye’s 2022 energy plan on net zero studies Türkiye’s envisaged energy utilization based on energy resources, but excludes the associated emissions. This study has filled this gap and the calculations are based on primary energy consumption. Also, historical data-based forecasts have been carried out for comparison. Existing emission reduction methods investigated are the single process mitigation (SpM) which includes energy substitution (ES) and impact factor reduction (IFR), and the smart mitigation (SM) which combines both SpM methods. Unlike previous studies, the carbon capture efficiency parameter (Ceff) has also been introduced. Four case studies were considered: business as usual-based energy plan (Eplan_BAU), energy plan (Eplan), business as usual-based projection (Proj_BAU), and projection (Proj). The Eplan and Proj data give a cumulative and average annual energy consumption of 122.75 EJ and 7.67 EJ, and 151.39 EJ and 9.46 EJ respectively from 2020 to 2035, and the Eplan emission peaks by 2032. Relative to Proj_BAU, Proj and Eplan_BAU, the Eplan gives an emission reduction of 24.45%, 18.54% and 6.82% respectively. Also, the energy substitution and impact factor reduction mitigation approaches give emission reduction of ranges 13.46-56.10% and 12.55-62.74% respectively relative to Eplan. All in all, the SM gives the highest emission reduction.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Türkiye , Energy plan , Net zero emission , Energy consumption , Emission mitigation

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