ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 RESTRICTIONS ON LOAN REPAYMENTS IN TURKEY

Abstract

With the emergence and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, all individuals and businesses have been affected by the negativities experienced at different levels. To reduce the negative effects of the pandemic, some economic measures have been taken in the world and in Turkey. The protective measures and economic support practices aimed at limiting the spread of the pandemic and the economic effects it has created have had significant effects on individuals and businesses. In addition, the impact of the economic contraction experienced all over the world on businesses and the resulting decrease in employment have been observed as well as negative effects on the returns on loans provided by credit institutions before and during the pandemic. Within the scope of the study, it was aimed to determine in detail the effects of the restrictions developed due to the pandemic on the returns on consumer loans consisting of housing, vehicle and consumer loans, individual credit card usage, commercial and other loans provided by credit institutions during the COVID-19 period. In this context, using the data from the period 1/06/2020 - 12/30/2022, the relationships between the restriction index during the COVID-19 period in Turkey and the data on “Individual Credit Cards, consumer, housing, vehicle and Commercial and Other Loans” within the scope of follow-up loans were examined with the VAR model. Unlike the studies examining the number of losses and incidents due to COVID-19, the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker was used instead of the number of cases and losses. For this reason, the study differs and contributes to the literature. Under the results obtained, it was found that COVID-19 restrictions had different levels of impact on the loans used by individuals and businesses and the returns on loans.

Keywords

• Pandemic
• Non-Performing Loans
• Casuality

TÜRKİYE’DE COVID 19 KISITLAMALARININ KREDİ DÖNÜŞLERİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİNİN ANALİZİ

Öz

COVID-19 pandemisinin ortaya çıkışı ve yayılmaya başlaması ile birlikte yaşanan olumsuzluklardan etkileri farklı düzeyde olmak üzere bireyler ve işletmelerin tümü etkilenmiştir. Pandeminin olumsuz etkilerini azaltmak amacı ile dünyada ve Türkiye’de bazı ekonomik önlemler alınmıştır. Pandeminin yayılımını ve yarattığı ekonomik etkileri sınırlamayı amaçlayan korumacı önlemler ve ekonomik destek uygulamalarının bireyler ve işletmeler üzerinde önemli etkileri gözlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte tüm dünyada yaşanan ekonomik daralmanın işletmelere etkisi ve buna bağlı olarak gözlenen istihdam azalışı ile birlikte pandemi öncesinde ve pandemi döneminde kredi kurumlarınca verilen kredilerin geri dönüşlerinde olumsuz etkiler gözlenmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında COVID-19 döneminde kredi kurumları tarafından kullandırılan konut, taşıt ve ihtiyaç kredilerinden oluşan tüketici kredilerinin, bireysel kredi kartı kullanımlarının, ticari ve diğer kredilerin geri dönüşleri üzerindeki pandemiye bağlı geliştirilen kısıtlamaların etkisinin detaylı olarak belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu kapsamda 1/06/2020- 12/30/2022 dönem verilerinden yararlanılarak Türkiye’de COVID-19 döneminde kısıtlama endeksi ile takipteki krediler olarak “Bireysel Kredi Kartları, ihtiyaç, konut, taşıt ve Ticari ve Diğer Krediler”e ilişkin veriler arasındaki ilişkiler VAR modeli ile incelenmiştir. Çalışmada COVID-19’a bağlı kayıp ve olay sayılarını inceleyen çalışmalardan farklı olarak vaka ve kayıp sayıları yerine Oxford COVID-19 Hükümet tepkisi izleyicisinden yararlanılmıştır. Çalışma bu nedenle farklılık göstermekte ve literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Ulaşılan sonuçlar ışığında COVID¬-19 kısıtlamalarının bireylerin ve işletmelerin kullandığı krediler ve kredilerin geri dönüşleri üzerinde farklı düzeylerde etkisi olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Pandemi
• Takipteki Krediler
• Nedensellik

Kaynakça

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