THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: PANEL BOOTSTRAP GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Yıl 2019, , 329 - 340, 01.04.2019

Gizem Yıldız Barış Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.2019252097

Cited By: 12

Öz

The aim of this study, 10 of the Newly Industrialized Countries China, India, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia is to analyzed the relationship between economic growth and economic complexity. The period 1960-2016 was considered in the study. The developed by Hidalgo and Hausmann 2009 The Economic Complexity Index and Real GDP data were used in the analysis to determine whether the countries have a qualified export structure. The causality relationship between the variables was analyzed by using Konya 2006 causality test. According to the results of Konya 2006 panel causality analysis is the only one way, from the economic complexity to economic growth for Mexico, Malaysia and South Africa and two way for only China. On the other hand, in panel was obtained only one-way causality relationship from economic complexity to economic growth

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Economic Complexity, NICs, Panel Causality

EKONOMİK KARMAŞIKLIK İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: PANEL BOOTSTRAP GRANGER NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı, 10 Yeni Sanayileşen Ülkede Çin, Hindistan, Tayland, Malezya, Filipinler, Türkiye, Güney Afrika, Brezilya, Meksika, Endonezya ekonomik karmaşıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektir. Çalışmada 1970-2016 dönemi ele alınmıştır. Ülkelerin nitelikli bir ihracat yapısına sahip olup olmadığını tespit etmek amacıyla Hidalgo ve Hausmann 2009 tarafından geliştirilen Ekonomik karmaşıklık Endeksi ve Reel GSYH verileri analizde kullanılmıştır. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Konya 2006 nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Konya 2006 panel nedensellik analizi sonucuna göre Meksika, Malezya ve Güney Afrika için ekonomik karmaşıklıktan ekonomik büyümeye tek yönlü ve sadece Çin için çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Panel genelinde ise sadece ekonomik karmaşıklıktan ekonomik büyümeye tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Ekonomik Karmaşıklık, NICs, Panel Nedensellik

Kaynakça

• Abdon, A., Bacate, M., Felipe, J. & Kumar, U. (2010) Product complexity and economic development, Working paper, Levy Economics Institute, No.616, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, NY.
• Albeaik, S., Kaltenberg, M., Alsaleh, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). 729 New Measures Of Economic Complexity (Addendum to Improving the Economic Complexity Index). arXiv preprint arXiv:1708.04107.
• Balassa, B. (1978). Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 5(2), 181-189.
• Boddin, D. (2016). The role of newly industrialized economies in global value chains. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Working Paper WP/16/207.
• Breusch, T. & Pagan, A. (1980). The LM test and its application to model specification in econometrics. Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-254.
• Center For International Development at Harvard University (2015). The Atlas Of Economic Complexity, http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.09.2018).
• Cristelli, M., Gabrielli, A., Tacchella, A., Caldarelli, G., & Pietronero, L. (2013). Measuring the intangibles: A metrics for the economic complexity of countries and products. PloS oOne, 8(8), e70726.
• Cristelli, M., Tacchella, A., & Pietronero, L. (2015). The heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity. PloS One, 10(2), e0117174.
• Çeştepe, H., & Çağlar, O. (2017). Ürün sofistikasyonu ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 13(5), 992-1000.
• Dutt, S.D. & Ghosh, D. (1996). The export growth-economic growth nexus: A causality analysis. The Journal of Developing Areas, 30(2), 167-182.
• Ertan Özgüzer, G., & Oğuş Binatlı, A. (2016). Economic convergence ın the eu: a complexity approach. Eastern European Economics, 54(2), 93-108.
• Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12(1-2), 59-73.
• Felipe, J., Kumar, U., Abdon, A., & Bacate, M. (2012). Product complexity and economic development. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(1), 36-68.
• Gala, P., Rocha, I., & Magacho, G. (2018). The structuralist revenge: Economic complexity as an important dimension to evaluate growth and development. Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 38(2), 219-236.
• Guo, X., Wei, B., & Fu, Q. (2017). Granger causality test of the relationship between export and economic growth in central jiangsu region. In Industrial Economics System And Industrial Security Engineering (IEIS’2017), 2017 4th International Conference on (pp. 1-6). IEEE.
• Haggard, S. (1986). The newly industrializing countries in the international system. World Politics, 38(2), 343-370.
• Hausmann, R., & Klinger, B. (2006). Structural transformation and patterns of comparative advantage in the product space (No. 128). Center for International Development at Harvard University.
• Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal Of Economic Growth, 12(1), 1-25.
• Hartmann, D., Guevara, M. R., Jara-Figueroa, C., Aristarán, M., & Hidalgo, C. A. (2017). Linking economic complexity, institutions, and income inequality. World Development, 93, 75-93.
• Hausmann, R., Hidalgo, C. A., Bustos, S., Coscia, M., Simoes, A., & Yildirim, M. A. (2014). The atlas of economic complexity: Mapping paths to prosperity. Mit Press.
• Hausmann, R., Morales, J. R., & Santos, M. (2016). Economic complexity in Panama: Assessing opportunities for productive diversification. Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
• Hidalgo, C. A. (2009). The dynamics of economic complexity and the product space over a 42 year period (No. 189). Center for International Development at Harvard University.
• Hidalgo, C. A. & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 106(26), 10570-10575.
• Hirata, A. (1988). Promotion of manufactured exports in developing countries. The Developing Economies, 26(4), 422-437.
• Jordaan, A. C., & Eita, J. H. (2007). Export and economic growth in Namibia: A granger causality analysis. South African Journal of Economics, 75(3), 540-547.
• Jung, W. S., & Marshall, P. J. (1985). Exports, growth and causality in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 18(1), 1-12.
• Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978-992.
• Kuepper, J. (2018). A guide to investing in newly industrialized countries (NICs). https://www.thebalance. com/what-are-newly-industrialized-countries-nics-1978978, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.02.2019).
• Mariani, M. S., Vidmer, A., Medo, M., & Zhang, Y. C. (2015). Measuring economic complexity of countries and products: Which metric to use?. The European Physical Journal B, 88(11), 293.
• Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper 1240, Institute for the Study of Labor.
• Pesaran, M.H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010.
• Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error crosssection independence. Econ J, 11 (1), 105-127.
• Singal, M. & Wokutch, R. E. (2014), Newly Industrialzed Country, Encyclopedia Britannica, Encyclopedia Britannica inc., https://www.britannica.com/topic/newly-industrialized-country, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.02.2019).
• Stojkoski, V., & Kocarev, L. (2017). The relationship between growth and economic complexity: Evidence from southeastern and central europe. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 77837.
• Swamy, P.A.V.B. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311-323.
• World Bank, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators, (Erişim Tarihi: 05.09.2018).
• World Population Review (2019), http://worldpopulationreview.com/. (Erişim Tarihi:17.01.2019)
• World Atlas (2019), https://www.worldatlas.com/. (Erişim Tarihi: 17.01.2019).
• Yaméogo, N. D., Nabassaga, T., Shimeles, A. B. E. B. E., & Ncube, M. (2014). Diversification and sophistication as drivers of structural transformation for Africa: The economic complexity index of African countries. Journal of African Development, 16(2), 1-31.
• Yusuf, S. A. (2014). The analysis of export performance of newly industrialized countries (NICs): The lesson for African countries (No. 55110). University Library of Munich, Germany.