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Ticari Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Etkileri: Orta Asya Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz

Yıl 2014, , 27 - 44, 01.05.2014
https://doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2013.9.19.459

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ticari dışa açıklığın ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkileri, 1990-2010 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak, Orta Asya ülkelerinden Azerbaycan, Kazakistan, Kırgızistan, Tacikistan, Türkmenistan ve Özbekistan için Panel veri analizi yardımıyla araştırılmıştır. Dışa açıklık değişkeni olarak, dış ticaret hacminin GSYİH'ya oranı kullanılmıştır. Panel veri analizi yardımıyla yapılan çalışmadan elde edilen ampirik kanıtlara göre; ticari dışa açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi teorik beklentilerle uyumlu bir şekilde pozitif ve istatistikî olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur. Dışa açıklığın enflasyon üzerindeki etkisinin ise literatürden farklı olarak pozitif olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Ahmadi, R., & Mohebbi, N. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth in Iran, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(1), 885-890.
  • Anorua, E., & Ahmad, Y. (2000). Openness and economic growth: evidence from selected Asian countries. The Indian Economic Journal, 47(3), 110-117.
  • Bahmani, O. M., & Niromand, F. (1999). Openness and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 6, 557-561.
  • Bajwa, S., & Siddiqi, M. W. (2011). Trade openness and its effects on economic growth in selected South Asian countries: a panel data study. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 50, 1073-1078.
  • Bakar, Ç. (2010). Venezuela ülke raporu, Ankara Üniversitesi Latin Amerika Çalışmaları Araştırma ve Uygulama Merkezi Müdürlüğü, Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2013, http:// latinamerika.ankara.edu.tr/ulkeraporlari/venezuela_rapor.pdf
  • Barro, R. J., & Sala-i Martin, X. (1995). Economic growth. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
  • Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35 (2), 407-443.
  • Bayraktutan, Y., & Arslan, İ. (2003). Türkiye’de döviz kuru, ithalat ve enflasyon ilişkisi: ekonometrik analiz (1980-2000). Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 5(2), 89-104.
  • Bleaney, M. (1999). The disappearing openness-inflation relationship: a cross-country analysis of inflation rates. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, WP/99/161.
  • Chang, H. J. (2004). Kalkınma reçetelerinin gerçek yüzü. (Çev. Tuba Akıncılar Onmuş). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Chow, P. C. Y. (1987). Causality between exports and industrial development: empirical evidence from the NIC’s. Journal of Development Economics, 26, 55-63.
  • Çelebi, I. (1991). Dışa açık büyüme ve Türkiye. İstanbul: E Yayınları.
  • Dar, A., & Amirkhalkhali, S. (2003). On the impact of trade openness on growth: further evidence from OECD countries. Applied Economies, 35(2), 1761-1766.
  • Dollar, D. (1992). Outward-Oriented developing economies really do grow more rapidly: evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40, 523–544.
  • Dünya Bankası (2013). Indicators, GDP Per Capita (current US$), Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2013 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CN.
  • Edwards, S. (1992). Trade orientation, distortions, and growth in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 39, 31-57.
  • Edwards, S. (1998). Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know? The Economic Journal, 108, March, 383-398.
  • Falvey, R., McGregor, N. F., & Khalid, A. (2013). Trade liberalisation and growth: a threshold exploration. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 18(2), 230-252.
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-511.
  • Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: a panel causality analysis. International Conferences of RCIE, KIET, and APEA, March 16-18, Seattle, USA.
  • Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. Cambridge: Mass. MIT Press.
  • Han, E., & Kaya, A. (2006). Kalkınma ekonomisi teori ve politika. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Harrison, A. (1996). Openness and growth: a time series, cross-country analysis for developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 48, 419-447.
  • Heckscher, E. (1919). The Effects of foreign trade on the distribution of income, Ekonomisk Tidskrift, 21, 497-512.
  • Im K., Pesaran H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
  • Jin, J. C. (2003). Openness and growth in North Korea: evidence from time-series data. Review of International Economics, 11(1), 18-27.
  • Kaplan, M. (2004). An analytical evaluation of the impact of openness on economic performance: a three-sector general equilibrium open economy model. Turkish Economic Association, Discussion Paper, 2004/14, June.
  • Kurt, S., & Berber, M. (2008). Openness in Turkey and economic growth, Atatürk University Economic and Admisnistritive Journal, 22(2), 57-79.
  • Kwan, A. C. C., & Cotsomitis, J. (1991). Economic growth and the expanding export sector: China 1952-1985. International EconomicJournal, 5, 105-117.
  • Leamer, E. E. (1995). The Hecksher-Ohlin model in theory and practice, Princeton Sudies in International Finance, No. 77.
  • Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. American Economic Review, 82, 942-963.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C., & Chu. J. (2002). Unit roots tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Lucas, R. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
  • Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics ,107(2), 407-437.
  • Manni, U. H., Siddiqui, S., Ahmad, A., & Munshi, N. I. (2012). An empirical investigation on trade openness and economic growth in Bangladesh economy. Asian Social Science, 8(11), 154-162.
  • MFA. (2013). Kuzey Kore’nin Ekonomisi, T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı, Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2013, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/kuzey-kore-ekonomisi.tr.mfa
  • Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Okuyan, H., Aydin, O. A., & Erbaykal, E. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: further evidence without relying on data stationarity, International Journal of Commerce and Management, 22(1), 26-35.
  • Omisakin, O., Oluwatosin, A., & Ayoola, O. (2009). Foreign direct investment, trade openness and growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economic Theory, 3(2), 13-18.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration; asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis, Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625.
  • Rodriguez, F., & Rodrik, D. (1999). Trade policy and economic growth: a Skeptic’s guide to cross-national evidence. NBER Working Paper, 7081.
  • Romer, P. (1986). Increasing returns and long run growth, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • Romer, D. (1993). Openness and inflation: theory and evidence, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 869-903.
  • Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. (1995). Economic reform and the process of global integration. Brooking Papers of Economic Activity, (1), 195.
  • Sinha, D., & Sinha, T. (1996). Openness and economic growth: time series evidence from India. Applied Economics, 21-28.
  • Stokey, N. L. (1996). Free trade, factor returns, and factor accumulation, Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 421-47.
  • Sun, H., & Parikh, A. (2001). Exports, inward foreign direct investment (fdi) and regional economic growth in China. Regional Studies, 35 (3), 187-196.
  • TCMB. (2007). Enflasyon Raporu, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, No:2007-I.
  • Thirlwall, A. P. (2003). Trade, balance of payments and exchange rate policy in developing countries, UK: Edward Elgar Pub.
  • Tupy, M. L. (2005). Trade liberalization and poverty reduction in Sub-Sahara Africa, Cato Institute Policy Analysis, No.557.
  • Ulaşan, B. (2012). Openness to international trade and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Economics Discussion Papers, No. 25.
  • Utkulu, U., & Kahyaoğlu, H. (2005). How did the trade and financial openness in Turkey affected the growth?. Turkish Economy Instituation Arguement Text 13, Erişim Tarihi: 11.02.2012, http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/Utkulu-2005.pdf
  • Vamvakidis, A. (2002). How robust is the growth-openness connection? historical evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 7, 57-80.
  • Wu, Y. (2004). Openness, Productivity and growth in the APEC economies. Empirical Economies, 29, 593-604.
  • Yang, J. (2008). An Analysis of so-called export-led growth. IMF Working Paper, WP/08/220.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). The relationship between trade and financial openness and economic growth: an application on Turkey. Istanbul University Faculty of Economy Econometry and Statistics Journal, 5, 68-89.
  • Zakaria, M. (2010). Openness and inflation: evidence from time series data. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11 (2), 313-322.

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF TRADE OPENNESS: AN EMPIRICIAL ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES

Yıl 2014, , 27 - 44, 01.05.2014
https://doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2013.9.19.459

Öz

In this study, the effect of trade openness on economic growth and inflation was investigated for the Central Asia countries Azerbaijan, Kazakhistan, Kirghizistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan via panel data analysis by using the annual data of the period from 1990 to 2010. As trade openness variable, the rate of external trade to GDP was used. According to empirical evidence derived from the study using panel data analysis it was found that the effect of openness on economic growth was positive, and statistically significant in line with theoretical expectations. The effect of openness on inflation was also found to be positive as opposed to the literature

Kaynakça

  • Ahmadi, R., & Mohebbi, N. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth in Iran, Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, 2(1), 885-890.
  • Anorua, E., & Ahmad, Y. (2000). Openness and economic growth: evidence from selected Asian countries. The Indian Economic Journal, 47(3), 110-117.
  • Bahmani, O. M., & Niromand, F. (1999). Openness and economic growth: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 6, 557-561.
  • Bajwa, S., & Siddiqi, M. W. (2011). Trade openness and its effects on economic growth in selected South Asian countries: a panel data study. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, 50, 1073-1078.
  • Bakar, Ç. (2010). Venezuela ülke raporu, Ankara Üniversitesi Latin Amerika Çalışmaları Araştırma ve Uygulama Merkezi Müdürlüğü, Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2013, http:// latinamerika.ankara.edu.tr/ulkeraporlari/venezuela_rapor.pdf
  • Barro, R. J., & Sala-i Martin, X. (1995). Economic growth. New York: McGraw-Hill, Inc.
  • Barro, R. J. (1995). Inflation and economic growth. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 35 (2), 407-443.
  • Bayraktutan, Y., & Arslan, İ. (2003). Türkiye’de döviz kuru, ithalat ve enflasyon ilişkisi: ekonometrik analiz (1980-2000). Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 5(2), 89-104.
  • Bleaney, M. (1999). The disappearing openness-inflation relationship: a cross-country analysis of inflation rates. International Monetary Fund, Working Paper, WP/99/161.
  • Chang, H. J. (2004). Kalkınma reçetelerinin gerçek yüzü. (Çev. Tuba Akıncılar Onmuş). İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları.
  • Chow, P. C. Y. (1987). Causality between exports and industrial development: empirical evidence from the NIC’s. Journal of Development Economics, 26, 55-63.
  • Çelebi, I. (1991). Dışa açık büyüme ve Türkiye. İstanbul: E Yayınları.
  • Dar, A., & Amirkhalkhali, S. (2003). On the impact of trade openness on growth: further evidence from OECD countries. Applied Economies, 35(2), 1761-1766.
  • Dollar, D. (1992). Outward-Oriented developing economies really do grow more rapidly: evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40, 523–544.
  • Dünya Bankası (2013). Indicators, GDP Per Capita (current US$), Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2013 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CN.
  • Edwards, S. (1992). Trade orientation, distortions, and growth in developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 39, 31-57.
  • Edwards, S. (1998). Openness, productivity and growth: what do we really know? The Economic Journal, 108, March, 383-398.
  • Falvey, R., McGregor, N. F., & Khalid, A. (2013). Trade liberalisation and growth: a threshold exploration. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 18(2), 230-252.
  • Fischer, S. (1993). The role of macroeconomic factors in growth, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3), 485-511.
  • Gries, T., & Redlin, M. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: a panel causality analysis. International Conferences of RCIE, KIET, and APEA, March 16-18, Seattle, USA.
  • Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and growth in the global economy. Cambridge: Mass. MIT Press.
  • Han, E., & Kaya, A. (2006). Kalkınma ekonomisi teori ve politika. Ankara: Nobel Yayın Dağıtım.
  • Harrison, A. (1996). Openness and growth: a time series, cross-country analysis for developing countries. Journal of Development Economics, 48, 419-447.
  • Heckscher, E. (1919). The Effects of foreign trade on the distribution of income, Ekonomisk Tidskrift, 21, 497-512.
  • Im K., Pesaran H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
  • Jin, J. C. (2003). Openness and growth in North Korea: evidence from time-series data. Review of International Economics, 11(1), 18-27.
  • Kaplan, M. (2004). An analytical evaluation of the impact of openness on economic performance: a three-sector general equilibrium open economy model. Turkish Economic Association, Discussion Paper, 2004/14, June.
  • Kurt, S., & Berber, M. (2008). Openness in Turkey and economic growth, Atatürk University Economic and Admisnistritive Journal, 22(2), 57-79.
  • Kwan, A. C. C., & Cotsomitis, J. (1991). Economic growth and the expanding export sector: China 1952-1985. International EconomicJournal, 5, 105-117.
  • Leamer, E. E. (1995). The Hecksher-Ohlin model in theory and practice, Princeton Sudies in International Finance, No. 77.
  • Levine, R., & Renelt, D. (1992). A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions. American Economic Review, 82, 942-963.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C., & Chu. J. (2002). Unit roots tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Lucas, R. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
  • Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics ,107(2), 407-437.
  • Manni, U. H., Siddiqui, S., Ahmad, A., & Munshi, N. I. (2012). An empirical investigation on trade openness and economic growth in Bangladesh economy. Asian Social Science, 8(11), 154-162.
  • MFA. (2013). Kuzey Kore’nin Ekonomisi, T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı, Erişim Tarihi: 03.06.2013, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/kuzey-kore-ekonomisi.tr.mfa
  • Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
  • Okuyan, H., Aydin, O. A., & Erbaykal, E. (2012). Trade openness and economic growth: further evidence without relying on data stationarity, International Journal of Commerce and Management, 22(1), 26-35.
  • Omisakin, O., Oluwatosin, A., & Ayoola, O. (2009). Foreign direct investment, trade openness and growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economic Theory, 3(2), 13-18.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration; asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis, Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625.
  • Rodriguez, F., & Rodrik, D. (1999). Trade policy and economic growth: a Skeptic’s guide to cross-national evidence. NBER Working Paper, 7081.
  • Romer, P. (1986). Increasing returns and long run growth, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
  • Romer, D. (1993). Openness and inflation: theory and evidence, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 869-903.
  • Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. (1995). Economic reform and the process of global integration. Brooking Papers of Economic Activity, (1), 195.
  • Sinha, D., & Sinha, T. (1996). Openness and economic growth: time series evidence from India. Applied Economics, 21-28.
  • Stokey, N. L. (1996). Free trade, factor returns, and factor accumulation, Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 421-47.
  • Sun, H., & Parikh, A. (2001). Exports, inward foreign direct investment (fdi) and regional economic growth in China. Regional Studies, 35 (3), 187-196.
  • TCMB. (2007). Enflasyon Raporu, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası, No:2007-I.
  • Thirlwall, A. P. (2003). Trade, balance of payments and exchange rate policy in developing countries, UK: Edward Elgar Pub.
  • Tupy, M. L. (2005). Trade liberalization and poverty reduction in Sub-Sahara Africa, Cato Institute Policy Analysis, No.557.
  • Ulaşan, B. (2012). Openness to international trade and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation. Economics Discussion Papers, No. 25.
  • Utkulu, U., & Kahyaoğlu, H. (2005). How did the trade and financial openness in Turkey affected the growth?. Turkish Economy Instituation Arguement Text 13, Erişim Tarihi: 11.02.2012, http://www.tek.org.tr/dosyalar/Utkulu-2005.pdf
  • Vamvakidis, A. (2002). How robust is the growth-openness connection? historical evidence. Journal of Economic Growth, 7, 57-80.
  • Wu, Y. (2004). Openness, Productivity and growth in the APEC economies. Empirical Economies, 29, 593-604.
  • Yang, J. (2008). An Analysis of so-called export-led growth. IMF Working Paper, WP/08/220.
  • Yapraklı, S. (2007). The relationship between trade and financial openness and economic growth: an application on Turkey. Istanbul University Faculty of Economy Econometry and Statistics Journal, 5, 68-89.
  • Zakaria, M. (2010). Openness and inflation: evidence from time series data. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11 (2), 313-322.
Toplam 57 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Research Article
Yazarlar

Mehmet Mercan Bu kişi benim

İsmet Göçer Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mayıs 2014
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2014

Kaynak Göster

APA Mercan, M., & Göçer, İ. (2014). Ticari Dışa Açıklığın Ekonomik Etkileri: Orta Asya Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 10(22), 27-44. https://doi.org/10.11122/ijmeb.2013.9.19.459