ANALYSIS OF CARBON PRICES WITH SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TEST

Abstract

In this study, transactions of carbon spot and future prices on the European Energy Market and Intercontinental Futures Exchange, causality analysis of changes in median and variance of oil prices and foreign currency exchange, are analyzed with three different econometric tests. We have found that spot and future carbon prices have negative and positive causality relation. In addition causality relation between carbon prices, oil and foreign currency exchange rate have been detected. Related findings have been discussed in comparison with the literature.

Keywords

• Carbon Markets
• Carbon Emission Trade
• Asymmetric Bootstrap Causality
• Causalitiy in Mean and Variance
• Volatility

KARBON FİYATLARININ SİMETRİK VE ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Enerji Borsası ve Kıtalararası Vadeli İşlem Borsası’nda işlem gören karbon spot ve vadeli fiyatlarının, petrol fiyatının ve döviz kurunun ortalamada ve varyansta nedensellik analizleri, üç farklı ekonometrik nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, spot ve vadeli karbon fiyatları arasında negatif ve pozitif yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca karbon fiyatları ile petrol ve döviz kuru arasında da nedensellik ilişkileri görülmüştür. İlgili bulgular, literatür ile karşılaştırmalı olarak sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karbon Piyasaları
• Karbon Emisyonu Ticareti
• Asimetrik Bootstrap Nedensellik
• Ortalamada Nedensellik
• Varyansta Nedensellik
• Oynaklık

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