İHRACAT VE İTHALAT İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN BÖLGESEL VERİLER İLE PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 18 Sayı: 1, 208 - 223, 31.03.2022

Burcu Hiçyılmaz

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.866530

Öz

İhracatın, sadece mutlak değer olarak artırılması ve içerdiği katma değere odaklanılmaması, ithalata bağımlı ihracat sorunu olan bir ülkede, ithalat artışını beraberinde getirmekten başka bir sonuç vermeyecektir. Türkiye bu sorunu yaşayan en önemli örneklerden bir tanesidir. Ulusal hedefin başarısı, bölgesel ve yerel ticaret stratejilerinin performansına bağlıdır. Bu çalışma, ihracat ve ithalat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini analiz ederek ihracatın Türkiye’nin hangi bölgelerinde ithalata bağımlı olduğunu ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Bilinen kadarıyla bu bölgesel verileri kullanan ilk çalışmadır. Nedensellik ilişkisini analiz etmek için Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse (2011) panel Granger nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Analiz, Türkiye'nin bölgeleri için Ocak 2002 ile Aralık 2019 arasındaki dönemi kapsayan aylık veriler kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. Bireysel sonuçlar, altı bölgenin çift yönlü nedenselliğe sahip olduğunu, dört bölgen-in ise ihracat ve ithalat arasında tek yönlü nedenselliğe sahip olduğunu göstermiştir. Panel sonuçları ise, ihracat ve ithalat arasında iki yönlü nedensellik olduğunu göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İhracat, ithalat, panel nedensellik analizi, bölgesel veri

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS RELATION: PANEL CAUSALITY ANALYSIS WITH REGIONAL DATA FOR TURKEY

Öz

Aiming to increase exports only as absolute value and not focusing on value added will not result in any other than bringing the increase in imports in a country where exports depend on imports. Turkey is one of the most important examples that are experiencing this problem. The success of the national target depends on the performance of regional and local trade strategies. This study aims to reveal in which regions export is dependent on imports by analyzing the causality relationship between exports and imports. To the best of our knowledge this is the first study using regional data. In order to analyze the causality relations, Emirmahmutoğlu-Köse (2011) panel Granger causality test is employed. The analysis is conducted with using monthly data covering the period from January 2002 to December 2019 for regions of Turkey. Individual results have showed that six regions had bidirectional causality while four regions had unidirectional causality between exports and imports. As for panel results, it has showed that there are bidirectional causality between exports and imports.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Exports, Imports, Panel Causality Analysis, Regional data

Kaynakça

• Acet, H., Erdoğan, S., & Köksal, M. (2016). Analysis of causality among exports, imports and economic growth: The case of Turkey. The Journal of Social Economic Research, 16(31), 145-161.
• Altın, H., & Süslü, C. (2017). Investigation of the causal relationship between exchange rate, import and export for Turkey. Journal of Aksaray University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 9(2), 105-112.
• Bakari, S. & Mabrouki, M. (2019). The Relationship between Economic Growth, Exports and Imports in Morocco: An Empirical Validation Based on VAR Modeling Techniques and Causality in the Meaning of Granger. Journal of Smart Economic Growth, 4(3), 47-55.
• Bozdan, D. N., Özenci, İ., & Keskin Benli, Y. (2018). Analysis of the relationship between exchange rate and export and import: An empirical study. Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 10(25), 638-649.
• Breusch, T., & Pagan, A. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specifications in econometrics. Rev. Econ. Stud., 47(1), 239-253.
• Çamurdan, B. (2013).The Causality between Export, Import and Economic Growth in Turkey for the period of 1999-2013. Social Sciences, 8(4), 183-195.
• Çetintaş, H., & Barişik, S. (2009). Export, import and economic growth: The case of transition economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636-649.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1079.
• Dumitriu, R., Stefanescu, R., & Nistor, C. (2009). Cointegration and causality between Romanian exports and imports. MPRA Paper No. 42091, Available at SSRN 2164553.
• El Alaoui, A. (2015). Causality and cointegration between export, import and economic growth: evidence from Morocco. Journal of World Economic Research, 4(3), 83-91.
• Emirmahmutoğlu, F., & Köse, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876.
• Fannoun, Z., & Hassouneh, I. (2019). The Causal Relationship between Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in Palestine. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 8, 258-268.
• Gündoğdu, C. ve Saracoğlu D. Ş. (2016). Participation of Turkey in Global Value Chains: An analysis based on World input output database. ERC Working Papers in Economics, 16/10, Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University.
• Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehmann D, F. (2006). Is there a long-run relationship between exports and imports in Chile?. Applied Economics Letters, 13(15), 981-986.
• Hopoğlu, S. (2019). Exports-Imports relationship in emerging economies: A panel causality analysis. International Journal of Euroasian Researches, 7(18), 24-56.
• Hye, Q. M. A. (2012). Exports, imports and economic growth in China: an ARDL analysis. Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, 5(1), 42-55.
• Jiranyakul, K. (2012). Are Thai Manufacturing Exports and Imports of Capital Goods Related?. Modern Economy, 3(2), 237-244.
• Kotil, E. (2019). Exports, Imports, and the Exchange Rate: A Causality Analysis for Turkey (2004–2017)'. A chapter in Contemporary Issues in Behavioral Finance, (Ed. Simon Grima, Ercan Özen, Hakan Boz, Jonathan Spiteri, Eleftherios Thalassinos), Vol. 101, Emerald Publishing Limited, 163-170.
• McKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601-618.
• Mohamed, M. B., Saafi, S., & Farhat, A. (2014). Testing the causal relationship between exports and imports using a Toda and Yamamoto approach: Evidence from Tunisia. In International Conference on Business, 2, 75-80.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper 1229. IZA Discussion Paper, 1240.
• Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. J. Econ. 142(1), 50-93.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross section independence. Econ. J., 11(1), 105-127.
• Petek, A., & Çelik, A. (2017). An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Inflation, Exchange Rate, Export and Import in Turkey (1990-2015). Finance, Politics and Economic Reviews, 54(626), 69-87.
• Raghutla, C., & Chittedi, K. R (2019). Is there an export‐or import‐led growth in emerging countries? A case of BRICS countries. Journal of Public Affairs, Doi: 10.1002/pa.2074
• Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 18(4), 613-623.
• Sönmez, M. (2019). İhracatın ithalata bağımlılığı yüzde 60. http://mustafasonmez.net/ihracatin-ithalata-bagimliligi-yuzde-60-al-monitor-12-mart-2019/ (Erişim tarihi: 15.05.2020).
• Tapşın, G., & Karabulut, A. T. (2013). The Causal relationship among real exchange rate import and export: The case of Turkey. Akdeniz University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 26, 190-205.
• Taştan, H. (2010). Sectoral analysis of causality among exports, imports and economic growth in Turkey. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1), 87-98.
• Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250.
• Tunçsiper, B., & Rençber, E. Z. (2017). The causality relationship between foreign trade and economic growth: The case of Turkey. International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 3(2), 619-630.
• Türkyilmaz, S., Özer, M. & Kutlu, E. (2007). A time series analysis of the relationships between the volatility of exchange rate, exports and imports. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 7(2), 133-150.
• Uddin, J. (2009). Time series behavior of imports and exports of Bangladesh: Evidence from cointegration analysis and error correction model. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 1(2), 156-162.
• Yıldırım, E., & Kesikoğlu, F. (2012). Dependence of import-export-exchange rate: Application of bootstrap-corrected causality test. Ege Academic Review, 12(2), 137-148.
• Yılmaz, B. (2019). The Relationship of the Vertical Specialization and Employment. Doctoral Thesis, Aydın Adnan Menderes University Institute of Social Sciences, Aydın/Turkey.