Covid-19 Aşılama Sürecinin Tahminine Yönelik Derin Öğrenme Tabanlı Bir Model

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 367 - 379, 31.12.2022

Anıl Utku Ümit Can

https://doi.org/10.29132/ijpas.1125729

Öz

Covid-19 pandemisi, insanlığın son zamanlarda karşılaştığı en büyük zorluklardan biridir. Henüz tedavi edici bir ilaç geliştirilemediği için tüm dünyayı sosyal ve ekonomik anlamda olumsuz etkilemektedir. Covid-19’un etkilerini ve vücutta bıraktığı hasarı en aza indirmek için farklı aşı çalışmaları yapılmıştır. Dünya genelinde insanlar aşılanarak salgının seyri kontrol altına alınmaya çalışılmaktadır. Bu noktada kullanılacak günlük aşı miktarının belirlenmesi, ihtiyaç duyulacak aşı ve enjektör gibi malzemelerin miktarına ve bunlarla beraber sağlık hizmetlerinin planlanmasına kadar önemli birçok alanda belirleyici olacaktır. Bununla birlikte birçok araştırmacı, virüs yayılım modeli oluşturmak ve Covid-19'un gidişatını tahmin etmek için farklı tahmin yöntemleri önermiştir. Bunlar arasında yapay zekâya dayalı yöntemler en ilgi çekici ve yaygın olarak kullanılan yöntemlerdir. Bu çalışmada, dünyada en yüksek aşılama oranına sahip ilk 20 ülke için günlük yapılan aşı sayılarının tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla DT, kNN, LR, RF, SVM, MLP, CNN, RNN ve geliştirilen LSTM tabanlı derin öğrenme modelinin karşılaştırmalı bir analizi sunulmuştur. Uygulanan modeller için RMSE, MAE ve R2 metriklerine göre elde edilen deneysel sonuçlar karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz edilmiştir. Deneysel sonuçlar, geliştirilen LSTM tabanlı modelin uygulanan ülkelerin tamamına yakınında 0.90’ın üzerinde R2 değerine sahip olduğunu göstermiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Aşı, covid-19, derin öğrenme, LSTM, makine öğrenmesi

A Deep Learning Based Prediction Model for Predicting the Covid-19 Vaccination Process

Öz

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the biggest challenges humanity has faced lately. As a therapeutic drug has not yet been developed, it negatively affects the entire world in social and economic terms. Various vaccine studies have been conducted to minimize the impact of COVID-19 and its harm to the body. People around the world are trying to control the course of the epidemic by vaccinating them. Determining the daily amount of vaccines to be used at this point will be decisive in important points such as the number of materials such as vaccines and injectors that will be needed, as well as the planning of health services. However, many researchers have proposed different predictive methods to build a model for the spread of the virus and predict the course of COVID-19. Of these, artificial intelligence methods are the most attractive and widely used. This study, it has been aimed to predict the number of daily vaccinations for the top 20 countries with the highest vaccination rate in the world. In this regard, a comparative analysis of DT, kNN, LR, RF, SVM, MLP, CNN, RNN, and the LSTM-based deep learning model was presented. The experimental results obtained according to the RMSE, MAE, and R2 metrics for the applied models have been analyzed comparatively. Experimental results showed that the developed LSTM-based model has an R2 value of over 0.90 in almost all of the applied countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vaccine, covid-19, deep learning, LSTM, machine learning

Kaynakça

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