Learning by Sanctioning and Learning by Retaliation: Explaining The Evolution of the European Union’s Sanctions Regime Against Russia (2022–2026)

Öz

This article examines the twenty-one sanctions packages adopted by the European Union against Russia between February 2022 and July 2026 as a dynamic process of reciprocal learning rather than a sequence of isolated policy decisions. It argues that the EU’s learning by sanctioning and Russia’s learning by retaliation evolved through a mutually reinforcing causal cycle, with each side continuously adapting to the other’s actions. Integrating these two perspectives, the study develops a reciprocal-cycle framework that explains how sanctions and countermeasures co-evolved over time. The findings identify five evolutionary phases—Shock, War Economy, Technology Denial, Anti-Circumvention, and Strategic Attrition—and show that while sanctions failed to alter Russia’s short-term strategic objectives, they gradually weakened its economic, technological, and logistical capacities through cumulative adaptation and capacity erosion.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• EU sanctions
• Russia
• learning by sanctioning
• learning by retaliation
• mutual learning cycle

Learning by Sanctioning and Learning by Retaliation: Explaining The Evolution of the European Union’s Sanctions Regime Against Russia (2022–2026)

Öz

Bu makale, Avrupa Birliği'nin Şubat 2022 ile Temmuz 2026 arasında Rusya'ya karşı kabul ettiği yirmi bir yaptırım paketini, birbirinden bağımsız politika kararlarının bir dizisi olarak değil, karşılıklı öğrenmeye dayalı dinamik bir süreç olarak incelemektedir. Çalışma, Avrupa Birliği'nin yaptırım yoluyla öğrenme ile Rusya'nın misilleme yoluyla öğrenme süreçlerinin, tarafların birbirlerinin hamlelerine sürekli uyum sağladığı karşılıklı olarak birbirini besleyen nedensel bir döngü içinde geliştiğini ileri sürmektedir. Bu iki yaklaşımı bütünleştiren araştırma, yaptırımlar ile karşı önlemlerin zaman içerisinde nasıl birlikte evrildiğini açıklayan karşılıklı öğrenme döngüsü çerçevesini geliştirmektedir. Bulgular, yaptırım sürecinin Şok, Savaş Ekonomisi, Teknolojiyi Engelleme, Yaptırımların Aşılmasını Önleme ve Stratejik Yıpratma olmak üzere beş evrimsel aşamadan geçtiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca yaptırımların Rusya'nın kısa vadeli stratejik hedeflerini değiştirmekte başarılı olamadığı, ancak kümülatif uyum süreçleri ve kapasite aşınması yoluyla ülkenin ekonomik, teknolojik ve lojistik kapasitesini zaman içinde önemli ölçüde zayıflattığı sonucuna ulaşılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa Birliği yaptırımları
• Rusya
• yaptırım yoluyla öğrenme
• misilleme yoluyla öğrenme
• karşılıklı öğrenme döngüsü.

Kaynakça

1. Arasasingham, A., & DiPippo, G. (2022). Cryptocurrency's role in the Russia–Ukraine crisis. Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/cryptocurrencys-role-russia-ukraine-crisis
2. Baldwin, D. A. (1985). Economic statecraft. Princeton University Press.
3. Blockmans, S. (2022). The EU's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine: From sanctions to defence. CEPS Policy Insights, 2022-12. https://cdn.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/A-transformational-moment_The-EUs-response-to-Russias-war-in-Ukraine.pdf
4. Bruegel. (2025). Russian shadow fleet and oil price cap effectiveness. Bruegel Policy Contribution. https://www.bruegel.org/analysis/oil-price-cap-and-embargo-russia-work-imperfectly-and-defects-must-be-fixed
5. Childs, N. (2025,). Russia's 'shadow fleet' and sanctions evasion: What is to be done? International Institute for Strategic Studies. https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2025/01/russias-shadow-fleet-and-sanctions-evasion/
6. Chiusa, S. (2025). Russia's shadow fleet: A masterclass in sanctions evasion. Geopolitical Monitor. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russias-shadow-fleet-a-masterclass-in-sanctions-evasion/
7. Connolly, R. (2018). Russia's response to sanctions: How Western economic statecraft is reshaping political economy in Russia. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108227346
8. Connolly, R. (2020). The Russian economy under sanctions. In The Oxford Handbook of the Russian Economy. Oxford University Press.

9. Council of the European Union. (2026). 21st package of sanctions: EU hits Russian energy, financial services and crypto hard. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2026/07/23/21st-package-of-sanctions-eu-hits-russian-energy-financial-services-and-crypto-hard/
10. Drezner, D. W. (1999). The sanctions paradox: Economic statecraft and international relations. Cambridge University Press.
11. Drezner, D. W. (2011). Sanctions sometimes smart: Targeted sanctions in theory and practice. International Studies Review, 13(1), 96–108. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2486.2010.01001.x
12. Early, B. R. (2015). Busted sanctions: Explaining why economic sanctions fail. Stanford University Press.
13. European Commission. (2022a). EU adopts first package of sanctions against Russia for its illegal war against Ukraine. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-first-package-sanctions-against-russia-its-illegal-war-against-ukraine-2022-02-23_en
14. European Commission. (2022b). EU adopts 2nd package of sanctions against Russia for its illegal war against Ukraine. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-2nd-package-sanctions-against-russia-its-illegal-war-against-ukraine-2022-02-25_en
15. European Commission. (2022c). EU adopts 3rd package of sanctions against Russia for its continued illegal war against Ukraine. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-3rd-package-sanctions-against-russia-its-continued-illegal-war-against-ukraine-2022-03-02_en
16. European Commission. (2022d). Ukraine: EU agrees to extend the scope of sanctions on Russia and Belarus. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/ukraine-eu-agrees-extend-scope-sanctions-russia-and-belarus-2022-03-09_en
17. European Commission. (2022e). Ukraine: EU agrees fourth package of restrictive measures against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/ukraine-eu-agrees-fourth-package-restrictive-measures-against-russia-2022-03-15_en
18. European Commission. (2022f). EU agrees fifth package of restrictive measures against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-agrees-fifth-package-restrictive-measures-against-russia-2022-04-08_en
19. European Commission. (2022g). Russia's war on Ukraine: EU adopts sixth package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/russias-war-ukraine-eu-adopts-sixth-package-sanctions-against-russia-2022-06-03_en
20. European Commission. (2022h). Implementation of EU sanctions against Russia: Commission adopts proposal for "maintenance and alignment" package. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/implementation-eu-sanctions-against-russia-commission-adopts-proposal-maintenance-and-alignment-2022-07-21_en
21. European Commission. (2022i). EU agrees on eighth package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-agrees-eighth-package-sanctions-against-russia-2022-10-06_en
22. European Commission. (2022j). EU agrees 9th package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-agrees-9th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2022-12-16_en
23. European Commission. (2024a). Sanctions adopted following Russia's military aggression against Ukraine. Financial Services. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/eu-and-world/sanctions-restrictive-measures/sanctions-adopted-following-russias-military-aggression-against-ukraine_en
24. European Commission. (2024b,). EU adopts 13th package of sanctions against Russia after two years of its war of aggression against Ukraine. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-13th-package-sanctions-against-russia-after-two-years-its-war-aggression-against-ukraine-2024-02-23_en
25. European Commission. (2024c). EU adopts sanctions against Russia's disinformation and war propaganda. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-sanctions-against-russias-disinformation-and-war-propaganda-2024-05-17_en
26. European Commission. (2024d, June 24). EU adopts 14th package of sanctions against Russia for its continued illegal war against Ukraine, strengthening enforcement and anti-circumvention measures. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-14th-package-sanctions-against-russia-its-continued-illegal-war-against-ukraine-2024-06-24_en
27. European Commission. (2025a). EU adopts 16th package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-16th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2025-02-24_en
28. European Commission. (2025b). EU adopts 17th package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-17th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2025-05-20_en
29. European Commission. (2025c). EU adopts 18th package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-18th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2025-07-18_en
30. European Commission. (2025d, October 23). EU adopts 19th package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-19th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2025-10-23_en
31. European Commission. (2026, April 23). EU adopts 20th package of sanctions against Russia. https://finance.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-adopts-20th-package-sanctions-against-russia-2026-04-23_en
32. Friehe, T., Langenbach, P., & Mungan, M. C. (2024). Does the severity of sanctions influence learning about enforcement policy? Experimental evidence. American Law and Economics Review, 26(1), 1–45. https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_3510753_4/component/file_3582285/content
33. Giumelli, F. (2011). Coercing, constraining, signalling: Explaining UN and EU sanctions after the Cold War. ECPR Press.
34. Giumelli, F. (2016). The success of sanctions: Lessons learned from the EU experience. Routledge.
35. Glenn, C. (2023). Lessons in sanctions-proofing from Russia. The Washington Quarterly, 46(1), 105–120. https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2023.2188829
36. Global Sanctions Data Base. (2025). GSDB-R4: 1950–2023. https://www.globalsanctionsdatabase.com/
37. Hall, P. A. (1993). Policy paradigms, social learning, and the state: The case of economic policymaking in Britain. Comparative Politics, 25(3), 275–296. https://www.jstor.org/stable/422246
38. Heclo, H. (1974). Modern social politics in Britain and Sweden. Yale University Press.
39. Hufbauer, G. C., Schott, J. J., & Elliott, K. A. (2007). Economic sanctions reconsidered (3rd ed.). Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/bookstore/economic-sanctions-reconsidered-3rd-edition-paper
40. IMF. (2025). Russian Federation: Staff report for the 2025 Article IV consultation. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/countries/rus
41. Kirshner, J. (1997). The microfoundations of economic sanctions. Security Studies, 6(3), 32–64. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636419708429314
42. Kluge, J. (2024). The Russian economy at a turning point: As the war boom ends, the Kremlin faces growing economic risks. SWP Comment No. 53. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP). https://www.swp-berlin.org/en/publication/the-russian-economy-at-a-turning-point
43. Li, J., Wang, Y., Zeng, W., & Liang, K. (2024). US sanctions and the reshaping of Chinese innovation strategies. Management Decision, 63(7), 2362–2391. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-12-2023-2417
44. Meissner, K. (2023). Caught up by geopolitics: Sanctions and the EU's response to Russia's war against Ukraine. The Economists' Voice, 20(2), 275–283. https://doi.org/10.1515/ev-2023-0051
45. Pape, R. A. (1997). Why economic sanctions do not work. International Security, 22(2), 90–136. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0162-2889%28199723%2922%3A2%3C90%3AWESDNW%3E2.0.CO%3B2-X
46. Portela, C. (2010). European Union sanctions and foreign policy. Routledge.
47. Russian Federation. (2022a,). On the application of special economic measures in connection with the unfriendly actions of foreign states (Presidential Decree No. 430-r). Official Internet Portal of Legal Information. http://pravo.gov.ru
48. Russian Federation. (2022b). On the procedure for payments for natural gas supplies to unfriendly countries (Government Decree No. 172). Official Internet Portal of Legal Information. http://pravo.gov.ru
49. Schelling, T. C. (1960). The strategy of conflict. Harvard University Press.
50. Schelling, T. C. (1966). Arms and influence. Yale University Press.
51. Simachev, Y. V., & Fedyunina, A. (2024). Import substitutions and the Western sanctions in the Russian economy: The strike of 2014 and the prospects after 2022. In M. Bali (Ed.), The effects of economic sanctions within the Russia–Ukraine conflict (Chap. 3, pp. 69–95). Nova Science Publishers.
52. U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024). [Rapor adı veya veri seti başlığı]. https://www.eia.gov/
53. Van Bergeijk, P. A. G., & van Marrewijk, C. (1995). Why do sanctions need time to work? Adjustment, learning and anticipation. Economic Modelling, 12(2), 75–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(94)00003-N
54. Zhang, B., Li, C., De Silva, H., Bednarik, P., & Sigmund, K. (2014). The evolution of sanctioning institutions: An experimental approach to the social contract. Experimental Economics, 17(2), 285–303. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-013-9367-7