Factors Affecting Bank Profitability’s During Crisis Periods in Eastern Europe and Türkiye: A Comparative Analysis

Öz

This study examines the profitability performance of banks in times of financial crisis in Türkiye, Russia, Georgia and Poland, which are the countries of Eastern Europe, and reveals which internal factors affect profitability. Panel data for banks cover sixteen-year-period from January 2007 to January 2023. The research sample is balanced panel data. The research examines the financial sector data of more than one country. Ridge regression method was preferred because there may be multiple linear problems in such a complex sample, and it is the analysis method that brings all variables together in a single analysis and gives the most optimum results. Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) were taken into account as dependent variables for the profitability of the bank in the research. The results of the study suggest that the profitability of the bank is significantly affected by internal determinants. The most important output of the study is that the non-performing loans have a negative impact on ROA and ROE during all crisis periods, this finding is the same in all countries and this effect fluctuates during crisis periods. Another important output is that the negative impact on the ROA, where the positive effects of the increase in liquid items of banks on equity tend to increase during periods of crisis, is also decreasing.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Banking
• Bank Performance
• Financial Crisis
• Panel Data Analysis
• Financial Forecasting

Doğu Avrupa ve Türkiye’de Kriz Dönemlerinde Banka Kârlılıklarını Etkileyen Faktörler: Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri olan Türkiye, Rusya, Gürcistan ve Polonya'da finansal kriz dönemlerinde bankaların karlılık performansı incelenmiş ve karlılığı hangi içsel faktörlerin etkilediği ortaya konulmuştur. Bankalara ait panel veriler, Ocak 2007'den Ocak 2023'e kadar olan on altı yıllık dönemi kapsamaktadır. Araştırma örneklemi dengeli panel veridir. Araştırma birden fazla ülkenin mali sektör verilerini incelemektedir. Böyle karmaşık bir örneklemde çoklu doğrusal sorun yaşanma durumu olabileceği ve tüm değişkenleri tek bir analizde bir araya getiren ve en optimum sonuçları veren analiz yöntemi olduğu için Ridge regresyon yöntemi tercih edilmiştir. Araştırmada bağımlı değişken olarak bankanın kârlılığı için Varlık Getirisi (ROA) ve Öz Sermaye Getirisi (ROE) dikkate alınmıştır. Çalışmanın sonuçları, bankanın kârlılığının içsel belirleyicilerden önemli ölçüde etkilendiğini göstermektedir. Çalışmanın en önemli çıktısı, sorunlu kredilerin tüm kriz dönemlerinde ROA ve ROE üzerinde olumsuz bir etkiye sahip olmasıdır, bu bulgu tüm ülkelerde aynıdır ve bu etki kriz dönemlerinde dalgalanmaktadır. Bir diğer önemli çıktı ise bankaların likit kalemlerindeki artışın öz sermaye üzerindeki olumlu etkilerinin kriz dönemlerinde artma eğiliminde olduğu ROA üzerindeki olumsuz etkinin de azalmakta olmasıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bankacılık
• Banka Performansı
• Finansal Kriz
• Panel Veri Analizi
• Finansal Tahmin

Kaynakça

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