A Migration Perspective on Inflation

Abstract

In combating inflation, accurately identifying the internal and external dynamics that cause price increases is of critical importance. The aim of this study is to examine international migration as one of the external dynamics that may affect inflation and to evaluate the migration–inflation relationship through the example of Turkey. As the analysis method, the existing academic literature on the relationship between inflation and migration was comprehensively reviewed, and recent macroeconomic data belonging to the Turkish economy were used for a detailed evaluation. The findings show that the effects of international migration on inflation occur through two main channels: supply-side and demand-side. From the supply-side perspective, migration creates certain advantageous conditions in the labor market and contributes to a decrease in the general price level, while through the demand-side it may lead to an increase, especially in food and housing prices. However, some findings reveal that migration can also lead to price decreases through the demand channel from time to time. Therefore, the relevant literature cannot reach a clear conclusion that international migration causes inflation. A similar finding was observed in the data analysis conducted for the case of Turkey. In conclusion, when both the relevant literature and macroeconomic data are examined, it cannot be concluded that migration causes inflation.

Keywords

• Inflation
• International Migration
• Supply-Side Effect
• Demand-Side Effect

Enflasyona Göç Penceresinden Bakmak

Öz

Enflasyonla mücadelede, fiyat artışlarına neden olan içsel ve dışsal dinamiklerin doğru biçimde tespit edilmesi kritik öneme sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, enflasyonu etkileyebilecek dış dinamiklerden biri olarak uluslararası göç olgusunu incelemek ve göç–enflasyon ilişkisini Türkiye örneği üzerinden değerlendirmektir. Çalışmada analiz yöntemi olarak, “enflasyon ve göç” ilişkisine dair mevcut akademik yazın kapsamlı biçimde incelenmiş ve Türkiye ekonomisine ait güncel makroekonomik veriler kullanılarak ayrıntılı bir değerlendirme yapılmıştır. Bulgular, uluslararası göçün enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerinin arz ve talep yönlü olmak üzere iki temel kanaldan gerçekleştiğini göstermektedir. Arz kanalı açısından bakıldığında göç, işgücü piyasasında bazı avantajlı koşullar oluşturarak fiyatlar genel seviyesinin düşmesine katkı sağlarken; talep kanalı üzerinden ise özellikle gıda ve konut fiyatlarında artışa yol açabilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, bazı bulgular göçün talep kanalı üzerinden zaman zaman fiyat düşüşlerine de yol açabildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu nedenle, ilgili literatür uluslararası göçün enflasyona yol açtığına dair net bir sonuca varamamaktadır. Türkiye örneği üzerinden yapılan veri analizinde de benzer bir bulguya rastlanmıştır. Sonuç olarak hem ilgili yazın hem de makroekonomik veriler incelendiğinde göçün enflasyona yol açtığına dair kesin bir yargıya varılamamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon
• Uluslararası Göç
• Arz Yönlü Etki
• Talep Yönlü Etki.

Kaynakça

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