VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)

Öz

Bu çalışmada vergi yükü ile ekonomik büyüme hızı arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler Türkiye’de iller örnekleminde incelenmektir. Bu bağlamda 2005 ile 2014 yılları arasındaki dönem kısıtında 81 ile ilişkin vergi yükü (tahakkuk-tahsil) ve kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla verileri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler, illere göre vergi yükü ile illerin ekonomik büyüme hızları arasında uzun dönemli eşbütünleşik bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Kurgulanan hata düzeltme modelleri ise illerin yapısal olarak uzun dönemde birbirlerine yakınsadığını, vergi yükünde meydana gelecek %1’lik artışın ekonomik büyüme hızını kısa dönemde %0,6 azaltacağını, uzun dönemde ise %0,9 artıracağını ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular hem kısa hem de uzun dönem itibariyle vergi yükünün illerin büyüme hızları üzerindeki etkilerini yansıtması açısından literatüre katkı sağlar niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Vergi Politikası,Vergi Yükü,İktisadi Büyüme Hızı,Bölgesel Kalkınma,Gelir ve İkame Etkileri

THE EFFECTS OF TAX BURDEN ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PROVINCES IN TURKEY (2005-2014)

Abstract

In this study, the existence of the short and long-term relationships between tax burden and economic growth is examined in the sample of provinces in Turkey. In this context, tax burden (accrual-collection) and gross domestic product per capita data are used for 81 provinces covering the period 2005-2014. According to the analyses, there is a long-run cointegrated relationship between tax burden and economic growth. Error correction models show that provinces are structurally convergence to each other in the long run. It also reveals that while 1 percent increase in the tax burden will decrease the rate of economic growth by 0.6 percent in the short term, it increases by 0.9 percent in the long term. Findings obtained in the study contribute to the literature by examining the effects of tax burden on growth rate both short and long term.

Keywords

• Tax Policy,Tax Burden,Economic Growth,Regional Development,Income and Substitution Effects

Kaynakça

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