PHILLIPS CURVE ANALYSIS FOR FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the relationship between inflation and unemployment. For this purpose, Brazil, Indonesia, India, South Africa and Turkey, which are called fragile five, are examined. In the study, the variables between inflation and unemployment will be analysed with Kónya (2006) panel causality test with the help of the data of 1991-2019 period. According to the findings of the study, there is a negative causality from the unemployment rate to the inflation rate in India and a negative causality from the inflation rate to the unemployment rate in Turkey. There is no causality in other countries.

Keywords

• Inflation,Unemployment,Phıllıps Curve,Fragile Five,Kónya Panel Causality Tests

KIRILGAN BEŞLİ ÜLKELER İÇİN PHILLIPS EĞRİSİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada enflasyon ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişkilerin araştırılması amaçlanmaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda Kırılgan Beşli ülkeler olarak adlandırılan Brezilya, Endonezya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’nin 1991-2019 dönemi verileri kullanılarak enflasyon oranı ile işsizlik oranı arasındaki ilişkiler, Kónya (2006) panel bootsrap nedensellik testi yardımıyla araştırılmaktadır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda Hindistan’da işsizlikten enflasyona doğru negatif nedensellik ilişkisi ve Türkiye’de enflasyondan işsizliğe doğru negatif nedensellik ilişkisi vardır. Diğer ülkelerde ise değişkenler arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enflasyon,İşsizlik,Phillips Eğrisi,Kırılgan Beşli,Kónya Panel Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

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