Ateş Altındaki Stratejik Uyumlar: Pehlevî Dönemi İran İttifakları ve Tehdit Dengesi Çerçevesi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 453 - 484, 29.12.2025

Kerem Turk

https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1740348

Öz

Bu çalışma, İran’ın 1925-1979 yılları arasındaki Pehlevî döneminde benimsediği ittifak politikalarını, Stephen M. Walt tarafından geliştirilen Tehdit Dengesi Teorisi çerçevesinde analiz etmektedir. Teori, devletlerin ittifak ilişkilerini yalnızca güç dağılımına değil, aynı zamanda algılanan tehdit unsurlarına — toplam kapasite, coğrafi yakınlık, saldırı kabiliyeti ve niyetler — göre şekillendirdiğini savunur. Çalışmanın temel araştırma sorusu, “Pehlevî dönemi İran’ın ittifak tercihleri, dış ve iç tehdit algılarının kesişimi bağlamında nasıl açıklanabilir?” şeklinde formüle edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda çalışma, İran’ın dış politika yönelimlerinin hem dışsal (Sovyet yayılmacılığı, pan-Arabizm, bölgesel devrimci rejimler) hem de içsel (Tudeh Partisi, Musaddık yönetimi, ekonomik kırılganlık) tehdit algılarıyla nasıl biçimlendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Araştırma, tarihsel belgeler, ikincil literatür ve dönemin politika belgelerinden yararlanılarak yapılmış, kuramsal çerçeve ile ampirik veriler sistematik biçimde ilişkilendirilmiştir. İran’ın ABD ile kurduğu stratejik ittifak, yalnızca Sovyet tehdidine karşı değil, rejimin iç güvenliğini sağlama amacıyla da değerlendirilmiştir. Benzer şekilde, İsrail ile geliştirilen örtülü iş birliği, Mısır, Irak ve Suriye gibi radikal rejimlere karşı denge arayışının bir parçası olmuştur. Ayrıca, Suudi Arabistan ve Ürdün gibi muhafazakâr monarşilerle yürütülen bölgesel iş birlikleri, İran’ın güvenlik stratejisinin tamamlayıcı unsurlarıdır. 1960’larda ise İran’ın bir yandan ABD ile yakın ittifakını sürdürürken diğer yandan SSCB ile sınırlı silah anlaşmaları ve diplomatik açılımlar gerçekleştirmesi, literatürde hedging olarak tanımlanan stratejinin bir örneği olarak incelenmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular, Pehlevî dönemi İran dış politikasının tehdit algılarına dayalı olarak şekillendiğini ve Walt’un Tehdit Dengesi Teorisi’nin, rejim güvenliği odaklı omnibalancing yaklaşımı ve hedging kavramı ile birlikte ele alındığında bu süreçleri açıklamada daha güçlü bir kuramsal çerçeve sunduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tehdit Dengesi Teorisi , Pehlevi Dönemi , İran-ABD İttifakı , İran-İsrail İlişkileri , Omnibalancing&Hedging

Strategic Alignments Under Fire: Iran’s Pahlavi-Era Alliances and the Balance of Threat Framework

Öz

This study investigates Iran’s alliance strategies during the Pahlavi era (1925–1979) through the analytical framework of Stephen M. Walt’s Balance of Threat Theory. The theory posits that states form alliances not merely in response to the distribution of power, but rather as a reaction to perceived threats—shaped by factors such as aggregate power, geographical proximity, offensive capabilities, and perceived intentions. The core research question addressed here is: How can Pahlavi Iran’s alliance choices be explained through the intersection of external and internal threat perceptions? Within this framework, the study explores how Iran’s foreign policy behavior was influenced by both external threats—including Soviet expansionism, pan-Arabism, and revolutionary regimes in the region—and internal threats, such as the Tudeh Party, the Mossadegh administration, and economic vulnerability. The research is based on historical records, secondary literature, and policy documents, and systematically links empirical evidence with the theoretical framework. The strategic alliance with the United States was motivated not only by the perceived threat from the Soviet Union but also by the imperative to secure the regime against domestic opposition. Likewise, Iran’s clandestine cooperation with Israel functioned as a counterbalancing strategy against radical regimes such as Egypt, Iraq, and Syria. In addition, regional alignments with conservative monarchies like Saudi Arabia and Jordan constituted complementary elements of Iran’s broader security architecture. During the 1960s, Iran’s pursuit of close ties with the United States alongside limited détente and arms deals with the USSR exemplifies a strategy of “hedging,” which is analyzed as part of the study’s conceptual framework. The findings suggest that Iran’s foreign policy during the Pahlavi period was predominantly shaped by threat perception, and that the explanatory power of Walt’s Balance of Threat Theory significantly increases when combined with the regime-security–oriented concept of omnibalancing and the notion of hedging.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Balance of Threat Theory , Pahlavi Era , Iran-United States Alliance , Iran-Israel Relations , Omnibalancing&Hedging

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