Bir Negatif Dengeleme Örneği: İran’ın Irak Tehdidine Karşı Kürt Kartı (1958-1975)

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 2, 675 - 705, 29.12.2025

Ünal Tüysüz

https://doi.org/10.33201/iranian.1786437

Öz

Bu çalışma, İran’ın 1958’de Irak’ta gerçekleşen darbe sonrasında Irak’ı bir tehdit unsuru olarak algılamaya başlamasından, 1975 yılında imzalanan Cezayir Anlaşması ile Irak Kürtlerine verdiği desteği sonlandırmasına kadar geçen süreçte izlediği politikayı incelemektedir. Çalışmanın amacı, araştırmaya konu olan dönemde bölgesel gelişmelere bağlı olarak değişen yapısal faktörlerin İran’ın tehdit algısını nasıl şekillendirdiğini ve bu tehdit algısının İran ile Irak Kürtleri arasındaki iş birliği dinamiklerini nasıl etkilediğini ortaya koymaktır. Çalışma, teori testine yönelik olarak tasarlanmış bir vaka çalışmasıdır ve süreç izleme yöntemine dayanmaktadır. Bulgular, İran’ın doğrudan kapasite artırımına gidemediği yapısal koşullar altında, Irak Kürtleriyle iş birliği yaparak rakibi Irak’a karşı negatif dengeleme stratejisi uyguladığını göstermektedir. Bu şekilde İran, bölgesel güvenlik ortamında kendi konumunu korumayı ve Irak’ın askeri kapasitesini ve dikkatini iç meselelere yönlendirmesini sağlayarak göreceli bir avantaj elde etmeyi hedeflemiştir. Çalışma, bu yönüyle küçük devletlerin tehdit algısının yüksek olduğu ortamlarda izlediği stratejilere ilişkin literatüre ampirik bir katkı sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İran , Irak , Tehdit Algısı , Negatif Dengeleme , Irak Kürtleri

An Example of Negative Balancing: Iran’s Kurdish Card Against the Iraqi Threat (1958-1975)

Öz

This study examines Iran’s policy from the aftermath of the 1958 coup in Iraq, which led Tehran to perceive Iraq as a threat, until the termination of its support for the Iraqi Kurds following the 1975 Algiers Agreement. The study aims to demonstrate how structural factors, shaped by regional developments during this period, influenced Iran’s threat perception and, in turn, affected the dynamics of cooperation between Iran and the Iraqi Kurds. Designed as a theory-testing case study, the research employs a process-tracing methodology. The findings indicate that, under structural constraints that prevented direct capacity enhancement, Iran pursued a negative balancing strategy by cooperating with the Iraqi Kurds against its adversary, Iraq. In doing so, Iran sought to maintain its position within the regional security environment and to gain a relative advantage by redirecting Iraq’s military capacity and attention toward internal issues. In this respect, the study provides an empirical contribution to the literature on strategies employed by small states in contexts of heightened threat perception.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Iran , Iraq , Threat Perception , Negative Balancing , Iraqi Kurds

Kaynakça

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