Post-Brexit Alternative Trade Scenarios and Potential Economic Impacts

Yıl 2020, , 217 - 248, 31.03.2020

Gökhan Aktaş , Zeynep Kaplan

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.645790

Öz

The referendum held in 2016 on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU marked a turning point in the history of both the UK and the EU. The UK is the first country to leave the EU. Thus, Brexit has been one of the most problematic and complex processes the EU faced in its history. Moreoever, Brexit has led to significant uncertainities in future UK–EU trade relations. This article analyses the strengths and weaknesses of alternative post-Brexit trade models between the parties and discusses the potential economic impacts of the alternative trade models on the UK economy. It is generally emphasized that the Brexit process will have a negative impact on the UK economy and foreign trade. In this framework, the economic consequences of Brexit will mostly depend on which alternative trade models the UK will adopt after leaving the EU. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Brexit, UK, European Union, Economic Integration, Foreign Trade

Brexit Sonrası Alternatif Ticaret Senaryoları ve Olası İktisadi Etkileri

Öz

2016 yılında BK’nın AB’den ayrılmasına yönelik gerçekleştirilen referandum sonucu, hem AB hem de BK tarihinde önemli bir dönüm noktası olmuştur. BK, Brexit olarak adlandırılan süreç sonucunda AB’den ayrılmaya karar veren ilk ülke olma konumundadır. Brexit süreci, AB'nin tarihinde bugüne kadar karşı karşıya kaldığı en sorunlu ve karmaşık süreçlerden biri olmuştur. Bununla birlikte, Brexit, BK-AB ticari ilişkileri ile ilgili belirsizlikleri de beraberinde getirmiştir. Çalışmada, Brexit sonrasında taraflar arasında uygulanması tartışılan alternatif dış ticaret modelleri, güçlü ve zayıf yönleri dikkate alınarak incelenmiş ve söz konusu ticaret modellerinin BK ekonomisi üzerindeki olası ekonomik etkileri tartışılmıştır. Genel olarak, Brexit’in BK ekonomisi ve dış ticareti üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olacağı ifade edilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, Brexit’in iktisadi etkileri, BK’nın AB’den ayrılması sonrasında hangi alternatif ticaret modelini benimseyeceğine bağlı olacaktır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Brexit, Birleşik Kralık, Avrupa Birliği, Ekonomik Entegrasyon, Dış Ticaret

Kaynakça

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