The Relationship of Renewable Energy Production and Economic Growth: Panel VAR Analysis on BRICS-T Countries

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 3, 1355 - 1378, 30.09.2025

Tuğçe Olcay

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1644394

Öz

Developments originating from the relationship between energy crises, climate change, environment and economic growth have initiated the transformation process from fossil-based energy to renewable energy in countries. In this transformation process, revealing the relationship between energy production from renewable energy sources and economic growth is important in terms of carrying out economic growth, energy and climate change policies in an integrated and balanced manner. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between renewable energy production and economic growth using the 1992-2022 period data for the BRICS country group (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Egypt, Iran) and Turkiye with the panel vector autoregressive method (panel VAR). Causality testing, forecast error variance decomposition and impulse-response analysis were performed with panel VAR model estimation. According to the causality test results, a bidirectional causality was determined between renewable energy production and economic growth, and it was observed that there was no causality between non-renewable energy production and economic growth. In the variance decomposition, it was understood that the second variable affecting economic growth after fixed capital formation is renewable energy production, the explanatory effect of non-renewable energy production on economic growth is low. In the impulse-response analysis, it was observed that renewable energy production had a positive impact on economic growth, and the impacts of all given shocks disappeared within four to five periods. When the findings obtained from the analysis results are evaluated together, it can be said that renewable energy production positively affects economic growth. Renewable energy production should become an important factor for economic growth by policy makers. Countries should make arrangements for subsidies and incentives in their energy policies to develop investments, R&D and production technologies for renewable energy production, within the framework of their economic structures, development levels, geography, energy resources and global goals related to the subject.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Renewable Energy Production , Non-Renewable Energy Production , Economic Growth , BRICS-T Countries , Panel VAR Analysis

Yenilenebilir Enerji Üretimi ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: BRICS-T Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel VAR Analizi

Öz

Enerji krizleri, iklim değişikliği, çevre ve iktisadi büyüme ilişkisinden kaynaklı gelişmeler ülkelerde fosil kaynaklı enerjiden yenilenebilir enerjiye dönüşüm sürecini başlatmıştır. Bu dönüşüm sürecinde yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından enerji üretim süreci ile iktisadi büyüme ilişkisinin ortaya konması iktisadi büyüme, enerji ve iklim değişikliği politikalarının bütünleşik olarak dengeli bir şekilde yürütülebilmesi açısından önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, yenilenebilir enerji üretimi ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkinin BRICS ülke grubunda yer alan Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Güney Afrika, Mısır, İran ve Türkiye için 1992-2022 dönemi verileri kullanılarak panel vektör otoregresif yöntemi (panel VAR) ile analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Panel VAR model tahmini ile nedensellik testi, öngörü hatası varyans ayrıştırması ve etki-tepki analizi yapılmıştır. Nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre yenilenebilir enerji üretimi ve iktisadi büyüme arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş, yenilenemeyen enerji üretimi ile iktisadi büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisinin olmadığı görülmüştür. Varyans ayrıştırmasında, iktisadi büyümeyi kendisi dışında sabit sermaye oluşumundan sonra etkileyen ikinci değişkenin yenilenebilir enerji üretimi olduğu, yenilenemeyen enerji üretiminin iktisadi büyümeyi açıklayıcı etkisinin düşük olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Etki tepki analizinde ise yenilenebilir enerji üretiminin iktisadi büyüme üzerinde pozitif etkisi olduğu, verilen tüm şokların etkisinin dört-beş dönem içinde yok olduğu görülmüştür. Analiz sonuçlarından elde edilen bulgular birlikte genel olarak değerlendirildiğinde, yenilenebilir enerji üretiminin iktisadi büyümeyi olumlu yönde etkilediği söylenebilir. Yenilenebilir enerji üretimi, politika yapıcılar tarafından iktisadi büyüme için dikkate alınması gereken önemli bir faktör konumunda görülmelidir. Ülkeler ekonomik yapıları, gelişmişlik düzeyleri, bulundukları coğrafya, sahip oldukları enerji kaynakları ve konu ile ilgili küresel hedefleri çerçevesinde yenilebilir enerji üretim yatırımlarının, Ar-Ge’nin ve üretim teknolojilerinin geliştirilmesi için enerji politikalarında sübvansiyon ve teşvik uygulamalarına yönelik düzenlemeler yapmalıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yenilenebilir Enerji Üretimi , Yenilenemeyen Enerji Üretimi , İktisadi Büyüme , BRICS-T Ülkeleri , Panel VAR Analizi

Kaynakça

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