Faktör Hareketliliği Bağlamında Göç ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımların Ticarete Etkisinin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma faktör hareketliliği çerçevesinde göç ve doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ticaret üzerindeki etkisini karşılaştırmalı olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin en büyük ticaret partnerlerinden olan Almanya, Fransa, İtalya, Birleşik Krallık ve ABD’ye giden göçmenlerin, bu ülkelerden Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının ve ticarete etki eden döviz kuru, yabancı istihdamı, küreselleşme indeksi ve politik istikrar indeksi değişkenlerinin 2000-2018 yılları arasındaki yıllık verilerini kapsamaktadır. Ticaret-Göç ve Ticaret-Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlar bağlantılarının analizinde dinamik panel veri modeline dayalı Genelleştirilmiş Momentler Tahmincisi (GMM) tahmin yönteminden faydalanılmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda elde edilen bulgular, 2000-2018 yıllarında Türkiye’den giden göçmenlerin, Türkiye’ye gelen yabancı yatırımlara göre ticaret üzerinde daha fazla etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca, geleneksel dış ticaret teorilerinin temel varsayımları geride bırakıldığında, faktör hareketleri ile ticaretin tamamlayıcı olduğunu vurgulayan literatürle paralel sonuçlar elde edilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış ticaret
• Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar
• Uluslararası faktör hareketliliği
• Göç

A Comparative Analysis of the Effect of Migration and Foreign Direct Investment on Trade in the Context of the Factor Mobility

Öz

This study investigates the effect of immigration and foreign direct investment on trade within the framework of factor mobility. Hence, we used annual data, spanning the period of 2000–2018, and immigration flows to Turkey’s major trade partners (Germany, France, Italy, UK, and the United States). The inward foreign direct investment flows to Turkey from these countries. However, exchange rates, foreign employment, globalization index, and political stability index variables affect trade. The findings show that migration flows from Turkey to five countries and have more impact on trade, compared to inward foreign direct investment to Turkey over the period of 2000–2018. Furthermore, when the fundamental assumptions of traditional foreign trade theories are ignored, parallel results are obtained, indicating that factor movements and trade are complementary.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign trade
• Foreign direct investment
• International factor mobility
• Migration

Kaynakça

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