Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model

Mustafa Çomaklı; Nur Ertek Tosun

doi:10.31015/2025.si.20

Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model

Abstract

The main power source for operating agricultural machinery, other than self propelled machines, is the tractor. Therefore, forecasts of mechanization levels are of great importance in the development of future planning. In this study, it was aimed to forecast the agricultural and livestock mechanization equipment assets of the TRA1 Subregion for the next four years. Based on four fundamental agricultural mechanization level indicators for the provinces of the TRA1 Subregion obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT), forecasts for the years 2025-2028 were made using the ARIMA model. According to the analysis results, the total number of tractors in the TRA1 Subregion is expected to increase by 9.05% between 2025 and 2028, reaching 27966 units. The number of single axle tractors is expected to decrease during the 2025-2028 period, along with a decline in the population of two axle tractors in the 25.76-36.80 kW group. The number of high power two axle tractors is expected to increase in the coming period, while those in the 8.10-17.66 kW range are anticipated to show a fluctuating trend. By 2028, the largest increase in the number of livestock related machinery is expected for tractor drawn mowers, hay rakes, balers, and milking machines, while the smallest increase is anticipated for corn silage machines and manure spreaders. A decrease is expected in the number of forage silage machines and milking facilities, whereas a significant increase is anticipated in the number of feed preparation machines. In the TRA1 Subregion, where the potential for forage crop production is high, improving productivity and ensuring sustainability in agricultural production require that the equipment and machinery used in livestock farming be made accessible through government support programs.

Keywords

Agricultural Mechanization level, ARIMA Model, TRA1 Subregion

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Farm Management, Rural Management and Agribusiness

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Mustafa Çomaklı ^*
0000-0002-3974-1354
Türkiye

Nur Ertek Tosun
0000-0002-3475-5888
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 28, 2025

Submission Date

November 11, 2025

Acceptance Date

December 17, 2025

Published in Issue

Year 2025 Volume: 9 Number: Special

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31015/2025.si.20

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA42WX48TN

APA

Çomaklı, M., & Ertek Tosun, N. (2025). Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model. International Journal of Agriculture Environment and Food Sciences, 9(Special), 122-130. https://doi.org/10.31015/2025.si.20

AMA

1.Çomaklı M, Ertek Tosun N. Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model. int. j. agric. environ. food sci. 2025;9(Special):122-130. doi:10.31015/2025.si.20

Chicago

Çomaklı, Mustafa, and Nur Ertek Tosun. 2025. “Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model”. International Journal of Agriculture Environment and Food Sciences 9 (Special): 122-30. https://doi.org/10.31015/2025.si.20.

EndNote

Çomaklı M, Ertek Tosun N (December 1, 2025) Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model. International Journal of Agriculture Environment and Food Sciences 9 Special 122–130.

IEEE

[1]M. Çomaklı and N. Ertek Tosun, “Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model”, int. j. agric. environ. food sci., vol. 9, no. Special, pp. 122–130, Dec. 2025, doi: 10.31015/2025.si.20.

ISNAD

Çomaklı, Mustafa - Ertek Tosun, Nur. “Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model”. International Journal of Agriculture Environment and Food Sciences 9/Special (December 1, 2025): 122-130. https://doi.org/10.31015/2025.si.20.

JAMA

1.Çomaklı M, Ertek Tosun N. Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model. int. j. agric. environ. food sci. 2025;9:122–130.

MLA

Çomaklı, Mustafa, and Nur Ertek Tosun. “Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model”. International Journal of Agriculture Environment and Food Sciences, vol. 9, no. Special, Dec. 2025, pp. 122-30, doi:10.31015/2025.si.20.

Vancouver

1.Mustafa Çomaklı, Nur Ertek Tosun. Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model. int. j. agric. environ. food sci. 2025 Dec. 1;9(Special):122-30. doi:10.31015/2025.si.20

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Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model

Determination of the Agricultural Mechanization Level in the TRA1 Subregion and Forecasting of Tractor and Livestock Equipment Assets Using the ARIMA Model

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References

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